The Ebola Virus vs. The Novel Coronavirus

I’ve seen a number of comparisons between Ebola outbreaks and the new coronavirus. Most notably, former Vice President Joe Biden brought up containment efforts of the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak during the presidential primary debate on Sunday, March 15. Something I’ve seen a few times on social media is, “Ebola is much more deadly and it hasn’t caused a pandemic. Why should we be more concerned about coronavirus?”

I’d like to compare and contrast the two viruses, and I urge readers to also read all my sources, which are linked at the bottom. There are important things we can learn from past Ebola outbreaks, most of which have been successfully contained.

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever

In order to contract Ebola, you must come in direct contact with the bodily fluids of a person who is sick or has recently died of Ebola. (1.) It is believed Ebola was first transmitted to humans via an infected animal eaten as bush meat, either a bat or nonhuman primate, and this is probably how new outbreaks still begin in Africa. (1., 2.) Interestingly, men who have recently recovered from Ebola can still transmit the virus through semen. Ebola is not contagious during the incubation period, the time when someone has the virus but is not yet displaying symptoms. Ebola can be transmitted on dry surfaces for several hours after contact with bodily fluids from a sick person, and it can survive in bodily fluids at room temperature for several days. (1.)

A terrifying and horrific reality of Ebola infections, and why it’s suspected that it hasn’t become a global pandemic, is that it is so incredibly deadly. Zaire ebolavirus, one of the six species of Ebola, caused the first known outbreak, infecting 318 people and killing 280. This is a mortality rate of 88%. (1.) People become incredibly ill and die before they can spread it. (2.) The response time the fear this drives is another reason: there is a rapid, global response every time there’s a new outbreak. In 2014, the UN formed a global Ebola response called UN Mission for Ebola Emergency (now run by the WHO), and the Security Council declared the outbreak in West Africa an international threat. Countries from around the world sent doctors and resources to quarantine and contain the outbreak as quickly as possible, and it worked. (3.) Even so, the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak that occurred in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone infected 28,610 people, killing 11,308. (1.)

Ebola was first discovered in 1976 in what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire), and we’ve since learned a lot about it. There is a treatment protocol that greatly increases survivability when administered early, including fluids and oxygen, and various medications that help control blood pressure, vomiting, diarrhea, and viral proliferation. As of December, 2019, there is now an Ebola vaccine. (1.) Through many years of tireless work by many individuals, organizations, and governments, Ebola is not the threat that it once was. It was a massive, global effort to significantly reduce the very real threat that Ebola poses to all of humanity. At the time of this writing, there is an Ebola outbreak that began in 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. (1., 3.)

To learn more about the current outbreak and how you can help, please visit source number 3 below.

Novel Coronavirus

The virus has been named SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes is called COVID-19. It’s called the novel coronavirus because it’s never been seen before, and SARS indicates Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. (4., 5.) Although coronaviruses have been around since the dawn of humanity, we don’t have decades of research on this particular virus. As a result, there is no treatment protocol and no vaccine. Speculation, and even blatant misinformation, are rampant in the media.

Here’s what we do know:

There are reports of subclinical and asymptommatic infections. This means that there are people who have tested positive for the virus who have very mild symptoms of illness, or no symptoms at all. These people have the live virus in their bodies, which means they can spread it. The incubation period is currently estimated to be between two and fourteen days. (4.) It is possible people are contagious during the incubation period. Regarding the spread of COVID-19, the WHO has this to say:

“People can catch COVID-19 from others who have the virus. The disease can spread from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth which are spread when a person with COVID-19 coughs or exhales. These droplets land on objects and surfaces around the person. Other people then catch COVID-19 by touching these objects or surfaces, then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. People can also catch COVID-19 if they breathe in droplets from a person with COVID-19 who coughs out or exhales droplets.

The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.” (5.)

Although we are still learning about the novel coronavirus, there is significant evidence to suggest it is more contagious than Ebola. Someone must already be sick to spread Ebola, whereas it seems this is not the case with the novel coronavirus. Whereas the Ebola virus can live on dry surfaces for several hours, a recent study found that the novel coronavirus can live on surfaces such as plastic or stainless steal for two to three days. (6.)

Certain people so far appear to be at much higher risk of complication from COVID-19. Based on data coming out of China, where the outbreak began, fatality rates were highest amongst people aged over 80 at 14.8%. Patients with underlying health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer, had an average mortality rate of about 7.8%. (4.) The WHO currently estimates the overall mortality rate to be 3.4%, but we won’t know for sure until it’s all over. Compared to Ebola’s first outbreak, which had a fatality rate of 88%, those numbers may seem low, and like there is less cause for concern.

At the time of this writing, the numbers of infections and deaths are rising, and vary widely by country, but we know with certainty that the novel coronavirus has spread much wider than past Ebola outbreaks. (1., 7.)

Containment has failed and governments around the world must now mitigate the risk. Instead of quickly working together to stop a global threat, the outbreak has been politicized and obfuscated, and people are left to wade through speculation and misinformation. (7., 8)

What makes the novel coronavirus outbreak so much more dangerous than past Ebola outbreaks is human error. Human arrogance. Human ignorance. We don’t know how this will all end, but we know what’s happening in Italy now: their healthcare system is buckling under the massive influx of sick people, and they are having to triage. Triage means they’re assigning degrees of urgency to decide who receives treatment. They don’t have enough resources to provide treatment to everyone in critical condition. This increases the mortality rate significantly. (8.)

You have likely seen authorities on the news talking about “flattening the curve.” This is a term used frequently in epidemiology, and it is a form of risk mitigation. COVID-19 will likely inflict millions of people, but if all the people who become critically ill can access proper healthcare, this can reduce the mortality rate significantly. Italy’s mortality rate is currently twice that of the global average. (9.)

I urge everyone reading this to adhere to CDC and WHO guidelines for social distancing, which can be found in the sources below. If you’re elderly, or have a medical condition, the safest recourse is self-quarantine. Flattening the curve is not containment, but it does work to mitigate the risk. Through collective action, we can help keep ourselves, our families, and our communities safe.

Works Cited:

1. Centers for Disease Control Ebola Virus Disease: https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/index.html

2. The Hot Zone: A Terrifying True Story by Richard Preston

3. United Nations Global Ebola Response: https://ebolaresponse.un.org/

4. Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus (COVID-19): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

5. World Health Organization Coronavirus: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus

6. The New Coronavirus Can Live On Surfaces For 2-3 Days — Here's How To Clean Them: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/14/811609026/the-new-coronavirus-can-live-on-surfaces-for-2-3-days-heres-how-to-clean-them

7. Worldometers COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

8. Why South Korea has so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

9. Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work?: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html