The Shovel Seller Who Started Worrying About AI
On the afternoon of October 12, 2026, at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, the Integrated Circuit Summit Forum of the 26th China International Industry Fair was underway. Yin Zhiyao, chairman and general manager of AMEC, took the stage and turned to a slide: a chart of annual changes in global semiconductor industry capital expenditure from 1984 to 2026. The line looked like a saw blade. In one year, capex could rise 100%. In another, it could fall 30%. It could keep falling for several years in a row. Some people in the audience held up their phones to take pictures. Someone whispered, “AI.” Yin said that AI is an extremely hot topic, that almost every conference is talking about AI, but that AI may also produce a bubble, and this needs close attention.