This is The Real Coronavirus Threat

Often we say people should put their fears in context and tell ourselves that we shouldn't be nearly as afraid as we are. Yet we can not be as reassuring when it comes to the nation's response to the new coronavirus.

An important thing to understand about the new coronavirus threat, which is playing out very seriously in Italy, is the difference between the total number of people who could get infected and the number who could get ill at the same time. The NHS, according to figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), has just 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people, compared with Germany's 29.2, Italy's 12.5 and France's 9.7.

In its annual Budget, delivered this week, the UK government provided a welcome array of fiscal stimulus packages meant to help fund the NHS, including six billion pounds for 50,000 more nurses, 50 million more GP surgery appointments and 40 new hospitals. However, the prevailing opinion is of a government still concentrating its priorities around shielding the UK market from the virus, but not yet its people.

As for maintaining the treatment supply to tackle coronavirus, the financial boost to the NHS is too little, too late for an over-pressed health system that has been underfunded for a decade.

The NHS in Britain

Hospitals in the UK don't thrive leaving beds open, and facilities idle. We have sufficient resources to be cost-effective but also have the potential to care for additional people in emergencies. Yet such emergencies don't take into account what we see now. There are over 4,000 intensive care beds in the UK, but, according to those OECD reports, about four-fifths are currently used. If all hospitals continue to take patients, the NHS will be forced to cut down on all forms of surgery and treatment to alleviate the burden on intensive care. Yet how many patients can be admitted into intensive care has a cap.

Therefore, if the pandemic followed the pattern of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic more closely, we would need over 20,000 ventilators.

Most people compare the virus with the flu. However, the thing to note is that influenza numbers spread over eight months or more. They don't rise exponentially, as the Covid-19 cases do right now.

Moreover, a higher proportion of people who are becoming sick now are severely ill. According to some figures, hospitalisation may be needed from 10 to 20 per cent of those infected. When enough people are infected in a metropolitan area, the numbers that will require intensive care can quickly overwhelm our ability to provide it.

The cautionary tale is Italy.

More than 21,157 people have been infected there; more than 1440 have died. Over 1,966 have recovered. Many of the rest are ill. One thousand five hundred eighteen are in critical conditions — right now.

This has exceeded Italy's capacity for care. It doesn't matter what physicians' specialities are — they're treating people with coronavirus. As health carers become ill, Italy is having trouble replacing them. Elective procedures have been cancelled. Those who need care for other reasons are having difficulty finding space.

In an unthinkable fashion, physicians have to ration care. They have to choose whom to treat, and whom to ignore.

They have to choose who will die.

Italy has a solid health care system. Perhaps not be the best in the world, but it is unquestionably not lacking in ability. It's simply not ready for the sudden influx of cases. There aren't enough physicians. There's not enough equipment.

The UK isn't better prepared.

One of the main problems is the NHS is already under much more pressure than ten years ago, and this is because of a decade of austerity policies. Key waiting-time targets in the health service are being missed across the UK, while large numbers of seriously ill people are ending up on trolleys in corridors because of the lack of beds available. Vacancies are also high - one in 12 posts was unfilled in England in 2018, according to an NHS finance report at the time.

Most experts expect that most people will eventually be exposed to, if not infected with, this new coronavirus. The actual number of people infected isn't what many epidemiologists are afraid of. It is all about how many will be affected at the same time.

An uncontrolled pandemic can lead to ever-increasing infection rates. Nonetheless, if we partake in social distancing, appropriate quarantining, and good hygiene, we will slow the rate of spread and ensure adequate resources are available to care for everyone properly. That may also buy us time to develop a vaccine.

South Korea has flattened its curve with extreme testing and social distancing. It has organised drive-through testing stations so that people can check if they are infected without endangering others. There were almost 190,000 people screened for the virus as of Sunday. That has allowed a more targeted quarantine of people affected.

We are also regrettably behind in screening.

We still don't have a clear idea of how many people are infected in Britain. Football league stopped competitions because they're rightly worried, as footballers have become infected. But the rest of us have much tougher choices to make.

Studies reveal that when children are prevented from being high-transmitters, deaths between older people are significantly reduced. But closing primary and secondary schools is more harm than good if parents keep working. That could mean children need to be left in the care of grandparents, placing those most vulnerable at risk.

Moreover, many children rely on schools for meals. Without planning on how to get them food if the school are closed, this could end in many of them going hungry.

What might help the most is comprehensive sick leave paid.

The people who are ill, or who need to care for children who are sick, need to be able to remain home and not expose others to the virus. The government has announced that no one will be left without pay for doing the right thing. If it doesn't happen, everyone is at greater risk.

Of course, standard advice still applies. Wash your hands (that cannot be said enough), avoid touching you mouth eyes and your face in general, cough and sneeze into your elbow, distance yourself from infected people, and stay away from others if you become sick.

We need to protect the most vulnerable, to support their ability to self-quarantine. We need to convince people who may be sick to stay home. And that needs to be economically possible for everyone.

Without immediate action, what we see in other countries may arrive here, with disastrous consequences.