Postcards From A Pandemic, Part One

I’m titling this article “Part One” in the sincere hope that I get to write Part Two. I don’t see why I won’t be able to, but you never know.

COVID-19 tends not to kill significant numbers of people under 50, without pre-existing health conditions.

But I must remind myself I am 51. And I’ve had pneumonia a few times.

Still, I expect I will be here when the anti-microbial fog clears and we can digest the lessons of the pandemic which began on the other side of the world on New Year’s Eve. But we don’t have to wait until then, whenever “then” is, in order to draw a few preliminary conclusions.

Today, in beautiful sunshine, yet biting wind, I watched as my children played, on the first day of Spring Break, in a completely empty playground. Funny how far we’ve come in one very strange week. One week, that has seen the pendulum swing from complacency to panic with dizzying speed. This week, and the neglected, complacent months leading up to it, already have much to teach us.

1. We Cannot Know When History Will Decide to Get Interesting; No Advance Notice Will Be Given.

My friend Laura was relaying a ghastly account from her friend in Italy, when I attempted to reassure her. “Don’t worry.” I texted. “Truly civilization-threatening pandemics come along only once a century.”

Immediately after sending that text, I of course realized that we are a year overdue: The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919, a horrifying beast which killed 100 million people worldwide on a planet of just over a billion at the time, had ended 101 years before.

There have been many scares and false alarms since then, but nothing on nearly the same scale. COVID-19 is not the Spanish Flu. It is terribly virulent, but it is not nearly so lethal as its predecessor. Nor does it cut down people in the prime of life, and in good health. But in an interconnected global economy in which travel is accelerated by jet engines and panic is amplified by webpages, it may not need to be as objectively nasty. Its effects will be felt for years to come, anyway.

The conditions for emerging viruses are always there, lingering in the background. Human contact with nature. Habitat destruction. Migrant populations. Crowded cities. Rotting healthcare infrastructure. Secretive governments. Complacent health and border authorities.

Yet that precise moment when genes mingle in the worst way possible, bringing a new horseman of pestilence into being, this moment is inherently unpredictable and always will be. Life can go from normal to upended, predictable to insane, in short order. Without wanting to, we find ourselves in history’s midst.

2. Listen to the Authorities. But Understand They May Not Know What They Are Doing.

While there is constant discussion and theorizing on the subject of pandemics, the “once-a-century-rule” means nobody alive has contended with a threat like Spanish Flu from a position of authority. They have had front-row seats, however, for a great many false alarms. This inevitably breeds a certain complacency and smugness in the ranks of public health professionals.

Public Health is no ordinary medical specialty, like cardiology and gynecology. No, Public Health is inherently political. It’s practioners wade into the waters of issues like junk food, marihuana legalization, transsexual rights, and racism.

As such, it seems like many Public Health officers, like those in Canada, are more comfortable talking about trendy social justice concepts than they are about Coronavirus. This leads to an ideology in which it is assumed that the reaction is worse than the disease. Hence, the authorities in Canada were content to spent the early part of the pandemic lecturing the public against stigmatizing Asians. Actual measures to screen and quarantine travelers were not such a priority.

Now, the pendulum has swung from complacency to panic. But the response in Canada and the US is still characterized by inconsistency and lack of coordination between different levels of government. Provincial authorities in British Columbia sternly warn residents again crossing the line into Washington State for milk and gas, while unscreened travelers are still pumped into the country’s airports from hotspots like China and Italy.

The left hand clearly doesn’t know what the right hand is doing. In this day and age, this squandering of credibility by those who ought to be the voice of calm authority can have devastating consequences. There is already widespread skepticism of objective scientific reality. Which brings me to my next point.

3. Just Because Some of Them Don’t Know, It Doesn’t Mean ALL of Them Don’t. Science is Still Our Only Hope.

As a citizen with what I consider to be a greater-than-average knowledge of science, I feel empowered to challenge those in authority who are not minding the store. But I know my limitations. I am not a virologist. I am not an expert on transmissibility, lethality, or mutability. So, I still need to listen to credible sources.

But where to find them?

Skip the talking heads. Many of the “experts” who make the rounds of two-second-soundbite TV are there because they peddle alarm, which the media loves. Pick up a magazine, either a specialized, yet accessible publication like Science or Scientific American, or an educated news publication featuring experts such as The Economist. Or check out their respective websites. There, you’re likely to find apolitical, science-driven discussion of what we’re really up against, and what steps you need to take to defend yourself and your family.

Educate yourself, not just during, but after the crisis ends. Ordinary folks should know to be more worried about a virus like COVID-19, than they are about Ebola. While Ebola is more horrifying in its effects, COVID-19 is still going to kill more people for two reasons: It’s transmissibility (airborne always beats contact), and its latency period, which allows healthy-looking (and feeling) people to fly around the world shedding virus.

Understanding concepts like those is key to making sure you’re afraid of the right things, at the right time. And skip the quacks. Disease outbreaks are often halted by the use of scientifically sound principles like social distancing, limiting travel, cause-based quarantines, barrier nursing, and vaccines. NOT herbal treatments, crystals, or other assorted horseshit.

4. In the End, You Have to Trust Your Own Judgement.

Bodyguard Gavin DeBecker entitled his recent book The Gift of Fear. What he meant was, fear is a natural response to danger in our environment, which is a warning system that is hardwired into us.

We have to realize this, and live it, no matter what anyone else tells us: It is NOT irrational, alarmist, or racist to be afraid of a deadly disease. Some people’s fear-driven REACTIONS may very well be irrational, alarmist, or racist. But that does not make the fear behind them irrational. Hoarding toilet paper is an irrational reaction we can control and avoid. Directing hatred at Chinese people because of a virus they want no more than we do is likewise.

But keeping our kids out of school on our own initiative, cancelling a trip because it just doesn’t feel right, and gradually and calmly making preparations for self-isolation is not panic. It’s taking full advantage of the Gift of Fear.

5. In Any Crisis, There Comes a “Pendulum” Moment. Be Prepared for it, and React Appropriately.

In the COVID-19 crisis, the Pendulum Moment in North America was this week. That was the moment the curious sluggishness of the bureaucracies that were supposed to protect us was replaced by alarm, some might say, panic.

We, as individuals, must be prepared for this moment. When we sense it, we must pick up two jugs of milk and two packs of toilet paper, instead of one. Instead of heading straight home, top up the gas tank, and get some food. Cancel the trip while you still can. Because once word gets out, good luck getting near a store. Alertness and awareness can save pain later. All around you may be panicking, but you won’t be, because you planned ahead.

6. It’s Not the End of the World. You’ll Know That When You See It. Take Your Kids to the Playground.

Kids take their emotional cues from us. If we are terrified and feeling helpless, they may be as well. Measure the risk of everyday activities, and engage in those that are still low risk. Movie theatres? No. Playgrounds? Sure…but watch for coughing kids. Surviving a pandemic will be a hollow victory if your souvenir is an emotionally scarred kid. Be careful.

7. Find the Blessings in a Bad Situation.

Self-isolation can come with some real drawbacks, especially if you’re not prepared. But still, it can also be a blessing. Imagine a month with nothing to do but read books, go for walks, and hang out with your kids. When was the last time any of us got to do that?