Australia is experiencing a severe flu season, which may be a warning of things to come in the US

Even though it's only June, American scientists are already planning for flu season. They are closely monitoring Australia, which witnessed an early start to its flu season, as they typically do at this time of year. The number of illnesses is rising in several areas of the nation, and youngsters account for the majority of the cases. Those flu tendencies might be a sign of things to come in the United States.

As is typical for this time of year, there is currently little flu activity in the United States. However, people typically don't start getting sick until around October, and doctor's offices don't really start to become busy until somewhere between December and February. The Covid-19 epidemic made flu season a little less predictable.

According to the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care, instances started to rise "sharply" in early May in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is currently winter. The agency reported that the start of the season is earlier than in past years, and case counts are higher than the five-year average but lower than at this point in 2019 and 2022.

Scientists are also keeping an eye on the incidence of pediatric cases. This year, it seems like more kids are becoming sick in Australia than adults.

When attempting to predict how severe the flu will become in the United States during its fall and winter, American scientists frequently refer to Australia and a few other nations.

We keep a close eye on what occurs in the Southern Hemisphere at this time of year to see how their flu season is progressing. Yes, we do, though not always as a prediction of what will occur here in the upcoming season. Carrie Reed, chief of the Influenza Division of the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "We do constantly monitor that all summer long.

Flu is an important virus to monitor because it makes so many people sick and costs the nation so much money. But some people may dismiss its seriousness because it is seasonal and everyone gets it at least once in their lifetime.

The CDC estimates that the flu caused 9 million to 41 million illnesses, 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 to 52,000 deaths every year between 2010 and 2020. It costs the U.S. about $10.4 billion in direct costs for hospitalizations and outpatient visits, the agency said, and that’s only among adults.

The CDC has had a formal forecasting effort for about ten years, Reed said, working in conjunction with a number of academic institutions and private businesses that are experts in flu forecasting and modeling. The information is gathered through clinical laboratories, emergency rooms, hospital networks, and death certificates.

Each week, the organizations submit their statistics on the flu. It is compiled, examined, and public reports that track trends are produced by the CDC. Over time, according to Reed, the forecasts have become increasingly valuable.

Over the years, "we've learned a lot and gotten a lot better," she said. Dealing with the flu is really intriguing. Each influenza season is a little bit unique. The virus is always modifying itself. As a result, every year brings a fresh challenge.

Thomas McAndrew, a computational scientist, said that while hundreds of scientists and millions of dollars are devoted to forecasting how the U.S. flu season would look, data suggesting an early, intense season in Australia doesn't necessarily mean the same on this side of the earth. Neither are the forecasts so precise that experts might foresee a spike in flu viruses, say, in Chicago on September 12.

According to McAndrew, an assistant professor in the Lehigh University Department of Community and Population Health, "We only have a few days out on weather at best." Because anticipating how any infectious disease would behave entails predicting human behavior, the flu is particularly challenging to anticipate.

People engage in a few predictable behaviors that spread the flu: Every fall, kids start school, and families fly to get together for the holidays. However, thousands more individuals might start donning masks if they see a famous person like Taylor Swift tweeting a photo of herself doing so in a city with a high flu rate. If enough people adopt that habit, the number of flu cases may decline.

Predictions involve a lot of factors, according to McAndrew. "It would be lovely if everyone were in the same room and every person bounced and connected with every other person for the same amount of time with the same weather, but it doesn't work that way. The manner in which it spreads is so human.

The CDC's Reed noted that predicting the flu is a complex issue.

It involves a combination of human activity, social connections, movement, humidity in the air, and population immunity. Therefore, it is complex

According to Dr. William Schaffner, professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, the United States may encounter a completely novel ingredient this year as well, which might alter the course of the virus.

This fall will present a unique challenge since, in addition to advising everyone to get their yearly influenza vaccination, a new, updated Covid vaccine will be made available. Additionally, two novel RSV vaccines that were just licensed have been added. The advisory council for the CDC will make recommendations about who should receive the vaccine in about a week and a half, and it will at the very least be older adults. So, he explained, some patients would be advised to receive not just one, not just two, but three vaccinations.

It remains to be seen if adults will actually take all three shots. Flu cases could increase if plenty of people choose not to get the vaccine.

Since the pandemic, vaccinations have become difficult to administer. Covid-19, not only for Covid vaccines but also for other life-saving shots, contributed to what the World Health Organization dubbed the "largest continued backslide in vaccinations in three decades" for children. The fact that fewer children were having their flu shots may be contributing to the high number of flu cases among Australian children, according to a spokesman for the Department of Health and Aged Care of the agency.

Therefore, while Reed and her colleagues will be monitoring Australia's flu statistics and performing their calculations, it is still unclear what the U.S.'s flu season of 2023 would bring.

To make predictions about the future season at this point would be premature, according to Reed. Between now and the time when we start to observe increasing flu activity, many things could change.