WORLD SUPER POWER AND POPULATION

China's birth rate has been high for the majority of the last 60 years, according to research, but in 2022, there were more deaths than births, which led to the country's population declining for the first time in six decades.

Consider the following to grasp why this is such a major deal:

Because of its enormous population, China is the world's manufacturing superpower. Manufacturing accounts for around 30% of the nation's economic output.

Its population is still roughly as large as it has ever been—1.4 billion people—despite losing almost a million individuals in 2022. By the end of the century, however, that is expected to decrease by almost half. China's population drop over time has been influenced by its growth and policies. To maintain its population, it is currently trying to change course, but there is a chance that it is already too late.

One of the most horrific famines ever recorded, which claimed 30 million lives, occurred in China in the 1950s under Mao. The birth and death rates chart shows a significant increase in mortality if we look at that. The population shrank at the same time that the birth rate fell. But there was a baby boom right after, as is typical with wars, famines, and other major crises. In addition to a reduction in newborn death rates due to worldwide medical advancements, China's average family now had six children. The administration considered the skyrocketing birth rate to be a serious issue. The Chinese government recognized that the population was expanding far too quickly and that action was required. A government initiative known as "Later, Longer, Fewer" was announced. fewer births, later marriages, and birth intervals that are longer. As a result, China's birth rate began to decline, but the country's leaders felt it wasn't low enough.

The draconian one child policy, which restricted most families to having just one child, was also put into effect in 1980. Extremely harsh measures were also used to support that policy. There were induced abortions, IUD insertions, and sterilization drives. These programs were at their worst during the one child policy, when China sterilized 20 million men and women and instigated approximately 15 million abortions in a single year, despite the fact that they started during the Later, Longer, Fewer era. But China had succeeded in its objective. Even though China had control over population growth, it would soon come to light that these stringent regulations had perhaps served them a little too well. In the long run, each couple has to have an average of 2.1 children for any population to remain the same size. The replacement rate is used to describe this. One child is supposed to take the place of one parent, and one-tenth is supposed to make up for kids who pass away before they reach adulthood.

However, China has had a fertility rate well below 2 for more than three decades. In 2016, China finally renounced its one-child policy. In 2021, they eventually allowed families to have as many children as they wished, following a brief experiment with a three kids policy. But it's failed to work. The one child policy's particular impact on family structure is a significant factor. A couple has 4 parents above them and 1 child below them in what is known as a 4-2-1 family structure.

The majority of nations have a wide range of family sizes, some with three children while others have none. However, because of China's 4-2-1 model, millions of people with only one child are feeling increased pressure to take care of their aging parents and elderly grandparents. And given the rising cost of living, this could make having multiple children even harder. According to a recent survey, more than 50% of young individuals don't desire more than one child due to financial and employment demands. Longer parental leaves, cash subsidies for kindergarten, and other forms of financial support have all been observed. The truth is that very few of them have succeeded since having a child is extremely expensive and requires a lifetime commitment. It is therefore very difficult to assign a monetary value to this. However, the population crisis in China is not just about newborns. In addition, the harmony between young and old is important.

When we examine population pyramids that depict the distribution of individuals by age, we can observe that nations like Kenya, which have had significant population expansion, have a wide base signifying many additional children and young adults and a narrow top.

Countries with slower growth, like the Philippines, are still triangular, but there is less of a distinction between the top and bottom. Looking at China, it reveals a small bottom with fewer newborns and a thick top with more senior people. which is a positive result of our increased prosperity and standard of living, but when combined with persistently low fertility, this only results in persistent population aging.

That pyramid is anticipated to further reduce China's labor force and population in 2050, placing the entire nation in an especially challenging situation. China developed became a hub for cheap manufacturing and exports in the 1980s. A generation later, it was climbing the economic ladder quickly and was one of the largest and fastest-growing economies by GDP. However, that economic modernization did not only result in further declines in birth rates, it also did not result in a more prosperous economy for all. China has a significantly poorer standard of living than these high-income nations when measured by GDP per capita, the greatest indication we have for measuring it. Despite almost overnight economic growth, China is still a middle-income nation. Many people, particularly those living in rural regions, have not benefited greatly from China's economic expansion, and China has not yet created the safety nets required to care for its elderly population. It takes time to develop the social infrastructure, such as the social programs for health care and pensions. And given the slowing economy, that is actually becoming more difficult. Furthermore, a weaker economy will inevitably change China's status as a global manufacturing superpower. The internal resource restrictions would also limit Chinese ambition and its global reach, which has implications for both China and the rest of the globe. In certain respects, China is not unique. Numerous nations in Asia and Europe are also seeing population declines. China stands out because of how quickly things have changed there.

China only began utilizing its rapidly expanding population to transform into an economic superpower 40 years ago, all the while still attempting to slow down population growth. China's population growth has now been declared to be finished. China may need to reevaluate its destiny for its domestic population as well as its future as a global giant.