China's Calculated Role in Russia's Ukraine War 🇨🇳 🪖

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine stretches into its eighteenth month, the dynamics of the conflict have evolved dramatically. Initially, Russia declared its alliance with China as one of "no limits," presenting the image of an unshakable partnership. However, China has taken a more cautious approach, making it clear that there are indeed limits to this relationship. In fact, beneath the surface, China's interests are not aligned with Russia's desire for victory in Ukraine. In this article, we will explore why China wants Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, the implications of this stance, and how it serves China's long-term strategic goals. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has left it in an increasingly precarious position. The global community's imposition of sanctions initially had a limited impact on Russia's economy due to surging energy revenues. Western countries purchased significant amounts of Russian energy to secure supplies ahead of looming sanctions. However, the situation has changed. Western-imposed price caps on Russian energy exports have severely undercut government revenues. These caps are just enough for Russia to keep selling oil and gas but not sufficient to turn a profit. Moreover, Russia's switch to selling oil to India, instead of Western markets, has created a dilemma. India insisted on trading in Rupees rather than Rubles, leaving Russia with a significant stockpile of Rupees that have limited use in the global economy. The impact of sanctions extends beyond energy revenues. Russia faces a severe shortage of essential components for the production of advanced weapons. Sanctions on semiconductor sales have forced Russia to scrounge for chips from consumer goods, leading to the acquisition of drones from countries like Iran, under deals that favor Iran. Russian defense industry output has been limited, and its reliance on components from around the world to produce advanced weaponry has been exposed. As a result, Russia's military output has been reduced to a fraction of its capacity. China has played a role in mitigating Russia's economic and military woes. It has significantly increased its import of Russian energy in response to Western sanctions. China also allows Russia to use its financial institutions to conduct transactions and evade Western restrictions. Furthermore, Chinese defense firms have provided vital equipment to the Russian war effort. Notably, China's assistance to Russia has included drones, computer chips, spare parts for combat jets, and navigation equipment. In the period from March to July 2023, Chinese companies sold Russia over $12 million in drones and drone parts. While it may seem that China is supporting Russia, a closer look reveals a starkly different reality. China's assistance to Russia primarily serves its own interests and strategic goals, which are far from aligned with Russia's. China is using the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to advance its geopolitical ambitions, and a weakened Russia better serves these ambitions. Currency Manipulation: Most of Russia's transactions with China are now conducted in Chinese yuan. This shift has occurred both due to Russia's increasing reliance on Chinese markets and China's insistence on conducting trade in its currency, strengthening the Chinese yuan. This situation leaves Russia with a surplus of yuan, a currency with limited global utility, as most international trade is conducted in dollars or euros. Russia finds itself locked into a dependence on India and China due to its dwindling options for currency reserves. China's Political Support: China's political support for Russia has been lukewarm at best. While China presented a 12-point peace plan, the details remain ambiguous and do not clearly indicate whether China supports the return of Ukrainian sovereignty to the annexed provinces or Russia's claims of sovereignty. This ambiguity allows China to maintain a flexible stance that is beneficial to its own interests while undermining Russia's need for recognition. China's ultimate objective is to challenge the United States' status as the world's sole superpower. China has grown to overshadow Russia economically, politically, and militarily. It has taken a long-term approach to achieve its geopolitical goals, and weakening Russia is a key component of this strategy. China has a historic memory of being a junior partner to the Soviet Union and then to Russia. It also has territorial grievances, with territories lost to the Russian Empire in the 19th century. The Russian Far East, including Russian Manchuria, is of particular interest to China due to its strategic importance, energy resources, and water supply. China seeks to secure these resources for its own economic and strategic advantage. China's calculated stance in Ukraine serves to advance its plans for the Russian Far East. China is heavily investing in Russia's eastern territories, and its financial contributions far exceed those of the Russian federal government. Immigration and Chinese influence are reshaping the region, creating tension between local Russians and Chinese populations. As the demographics shift, China's influence in the Russian Far East increases, raising concerns in Moscow. China's apparent support for Russia in the Ukraine war is, in fact, a calculated move to advance its own interests. China wants Russia to lose, and the more catastrophic the loss, the better it serves China's strategic goals. China's long-term ambition to secure the Russian Far East, coupled with its desire to challenge the United States' superpower status, are the driving forces behind its stance. Russia's dependence on China for currency and the potential risk of territorial loss make it increasingly vulnerable to China's influence. This complex geopolitical dance illustrates that China's "no limits" partnership with Russia is guided by its own interests, with little regard for Russia's long-term well-being. In a world marked by shifting alliances and global power plays, the Ukraine war serves as a case study of the intricate interplay of nations vying for influence and advantage on the world stage.