NFL Playoffs: A Reimagining

Entering the last week of any NFL season, there is generally only one question that needs to be answered before heading into the playoffs...

Is there any point to all this?

As an example, let's look at the first sixteen completed games per team in the 2023-2024 timespan. Based on how the NFL began determining playoff positioning in 2020, over the final few days of competition there would be just a handful of games that had any real meaning. In truth, by that juncture more than half of the thirty-two clubs had already been completely eliminated or had a nearly negligible chance of advancing. Meanwhile, around a third of the teams had either locked in their trip to the postseason or were close enough that it made almost no difference barring some rare chain of unlikely events.

Delving a bit further, if we were to forget divisions and conferences, by the NFL's own record keeping, tie-breaking procedures, and calculated probabilities of playing further into January, this is where things would have stood with every team:

As is patently clear from this table, there are a lot of issues. Notably, the 20th seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a likely chance of moving on while the 15th seed Cincinnati Bengals—with the exact same record—were already on the outside looking in. Further, organizations like the 10th seed Houston Texans were unlikely to be able to maintain their contention for a shot at the championship. Beyond just the standings, what about the scenario where a team like the 17th seed Green Bay Packers could sneak in and squeak out a win over the usually much more capable 4th seed Dallas Cowboys, thus ending the latter's run with just one untimely loss?

Every year there are situations like this that feel unfair for one simple reason: they are.

But what if we could change the equation so that everyone not only got one shot at reaching the Super Bowl, but two? In order to do this, we'll need to make a few assumptions about how the NFL of the future would need to function and how we're going to resolve the competing desires of the league, the players, the fans, the corporate partners, and other affected and involved parties and stakeholders. For simplicity's sake, let's just consider these points:

• The NFL wants an eighteen game season, and we're going to give them that as it's plainly where things are heading anyway.
• Given that, the preseason will be removed from the schedule and regular play will begin in mid-August. This will also allow for the possibility of having two bye-weeks offs. No determinations have been made on the timing of these, but it would be recommended to have half the league take a break at a time so that those weeks would end up split; something like Week 6A | Week 12A and Week 6B | Week 12B.
• There will be no more divisions or conferences. Everyone will play sixteen games to determine league-wide seeding as shown above. With the potential methodology discussed below, we'll ignore how the records were achieved in the first place and just say that a different type of scheduling will need to be implemented.
• Even if the "regular season" were shorted to, say, fourteen games, this entire proposal could still function exactly the same. Nonetheless, we're going to bet that the NFL will always push for more match-ups, not less.

That all said, Week 17 would end up being what we're going to call the Season Finale. Here, all the teams would be pitted against each other with the highest sixteen seeds at home against their lowest seeded counterparts.

Highlighted in green would be the winners as determined by the very unscientific method of using Net Points as a proxy for strength of play and other unpredictable elements. We're not trying to prognosticate a real victor here; this exercise is just illustrative. Based upon that, though, most games would have ended as expected, with the notable upset of 22nd seed Chicago Bears able to overcome the 11th seed Indianapolis Colts.

However, the Colts wouldn't need to worry as this surprising defeat would not knock them out of making a sprint for the Super Bowl. Starting in Week 18—known as the Gateway to the Playoffs—the teams would be broken up into two brackets: one for unbeaten Winners and one for those on the verge of Elimination. Every week, the teams with one loss under their belt would face off with each other so that someone's season would definitively come to an end.

In these theoretical circumstances, the Colts would keep their dreams alive by defeating the 32nd seed Carolina Panthers while the Bears would taste their first defeat at the hands of the 1st seed Baltimore Ravens. Still, most importantly, all teams would have played their guaranteed eighteen games, and each-and-every one would have actually mattered in a way they simply cannot by the current setup.

This would lead to Week 19, known as Last Chance Weekend. During this time frame, the undefeated teams would receive their first prize: a bye-week for performing so well, something they could continue to earn should their record remain unblemished. That would leave only the survivors of the prior week's Elimination Bracket to face off with the thwarted losers from the Winners Bracket. As things would happen to turn out in this particular occurrence, there would be several Week 17 rematches including the 24th seed Minnesota Vikings once again falling to the 9th seed Kansas City Chiefs.

Just due to the nature of how winners are being decided in this specific analysis, the results of these second head-to-head meetings would end up predictably the same as before. However, in the real world, anything could happen! This would have been true as things progressed for the Sensational 16 over Week 20 with the return of the Winners Bracket and even more heartbreak in the Elimination Bracket.

Once more, in Week 21, the Triumphant 12 would have seen the remaining members of the Winners Bracket sit while those in the Elimination Bracket fought for survival.

And thus the pattern would continue through...

• Week 22 | Elite 8
• Week 23 | Sterling 6
• Week 24 | Final 4

At last, we would reach Week 25, the Last Stop Before the Super Bowl. In the Winners Bracket, 1st seed Baltimore Ravens would have already secured their spot in the ultimate game of the year. As an award for their outstanding accomplishment, they would get a bye-week and would be the home team, no matter if their original seeding number happened to be lower than their eventual opponent. That would leave just the last two remaining teams of the 4th seed Dallas Cowboys in a rematch from Week 22 against the 2nd seed San Francisco 49ers. Since that would be the only game on the calendar, the Pro Bowl or some iteration of it or a skills showdown could also still take place on that same weekend.

With the last spot filled, we would only be left with the Super Bowl itself. The world would want to know if San Francisco could avenge their loss to Baltimore in the Winners Bracket, or if the Ravens would once again hold the 49ers at bay. Should the 49ers prevail, Ravens fans could complain unmercifully that they only lost once and that the 49ers should have to be beat them a second time. On the other side, if the Ravens ended up as the champs, 49ers fans could grumble about how Baltimore had all the advantages with the extra week of rest. Either way, the ending of the season would always have the controversy that sports broadcasters love!

Again, it cannot be emphasized enough that the result of this tournament being the top two seeds facing off—especially as a rematch from just a couple of weeks prior—would not be the most likely outcome. For instance, plugging in figures from earlier in the season ended up with the 2nd seed Dallas Cowboys defeating the 4th seed San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. As with any week in the NFL, anything can and does happen. Nevertheless, one aberration or off-week does not need to be and should not be the end of the road for a competitive team.

After all that, and once the dust settles, there would only be one more query that remained unanswered...

Who will face off next year, and how will things turn out?

That is, as they say, a story for another day.

J.P. Prag is the author of several works, including the hard-hitting, argumentative piece In Defense Of...: Exonerating Professional Wrestling's Most Hated, available at booksellers worldwide. Learn more about him at www.jpprag.com.

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