What is the best way to test the effectiveness of a new Covid-19 vaccine during the summer months?

What may be the best way to test the effectiveness of a new Covid-19 vaccine during the summer months?

The importance of developing a successful vaccine should not be underestimated because to get the US economy back on its feet, we need consumers to be confident enough to go out and spend money. A recent survey of US Internet Users conducted in May 2020 by Coresight Research debunks the myth that economic activity is mostly being curtailed mostly by the US “Shelter in Place Orders.” This survey revealed that 68% of US adults plan to continue to avoid visiting public locations when the lockdown ends. Interestingly, a sizable share of US adults also plan to avoid: Shopping Centers (45%), Movie Theatres (44%), Sports Events (40%), Public Transport (40%) and even International Travel (37%). Such evidence suggests that when we finally introduce a new Covid-19 vaccine --- we better be sure it is effective! Otherwise, the public confidence that is so badly needed to re-start the US economy after the lockdown, may end up being a laggard and elongate the path towards a genuine economic recovery.

With the possibility that a viable vaccine could be ready for larger human trials as early as July/August, (2020), some experts like Dr. Scott Gottlieb have warned that this may not be the best time to test a vaccine because the degree of spread may be at reduced levels during those months before they begin to rise again in the fall.

Similarly, the Oxford University team working on producing a new Covid-19 vaccine has also voiced a similar warning by indicating that a decline in the number of infections may generate test results that are overly optimistic simply because exposure to contagion is much lower. Of course, vaccine manufacturers like AstraZeneca and others could wait until the fall to conduct such tests under more ideal conditions – but why wait when every day such tests are delayed could mean more deaths and more people becoming infected.

With over 100 vaccines now in the pipeline, it would be a shame if any of these vaccines were tested in a less than ideal environment and generated results that were incorrect. As a it is, a Pew Research Center Survey conducted from April 29-May 5, 2020 indicated that 27% of US adults would not be willing to take a Covid-19 when one is first released. Imagine, if the first vaccine that is approved is really not effective because the human trials were not conducted under less than ideal circumstances. With this outcome, it would not be difficult to assume that the share of US adults willing to risk being the first to try the next vaccine would likely drop precipitously.

Consequently, if our goal is to test the effectiveness of a new vaccine for the US, as quickly as possible -- it may be a good idea to test those vaccines in countries that currently are experiencing a surge in infections like Brazil (with over 340k active cases) or Peru (with over 115k active cases). In the case of Brazil, most of the infections are being observed in Sau Paulo which makes this a good place to test the viability of any top candidate vaccines. In addition, to paying volunteers to test the vaccine, as we do in any country where a vaccine is tested, we could offer a commitment to donate some of the vaccine to the country helping the US develop a viable vaccine.

The result of pursuing this strategy would be what Economists often call a “pareto optimal,” solution where the improvement of one party does not come at the expense of hurting anyone else. In fact, in this instance, all parties could end up as winners!