What impact does Trump’s conviction have on the US presidential election?

The verdict against former U.S. President Donald Trump casts a shadow over his future in the medium term, as he could face the year 2025 in the Oval Office of the White House or in a prison cell, following his criminal conviction on Thursday.

A New York jury convicted Trump on criminal charges in the case of paying money to silence a pornographic film actress who says he had a sexual relationship with her before he was elected president in 2016. The impact of the conviction on the presidential election scheduled for November 5 remains unclear.

The American media covered the trial extensively, sparking much commentary from both Republicans and Democrats, but analysts and pollsters say the impact of the conviction on the majority of voters may be limited.

"We are in a highly polarized political system where voters focus on who they oppose and vote against the candidate they don't like rather than for a candidate they support," said North Greenville University political scientist Nicholas Higgins.

He added, "Because the allegations were widely known and the former president's team presented them as part of a political process, few voters will consider them false" after the verdict.

Donald Trump, who turns 78 in June, is not the first former U.S. president to be criminally convicted, but he is the first to be convicted while running for the presidency of one of the two major parties, providing the Democratic campaign with additional axes with which to attack him.

Although the trial revealed issues of sex, money, and scandal, it has not yet affected the polls, as the results for Donald Trump and Joe Biden have remained close, but with a slight lead for the Republican candidate in key states.

A poll conducted by the Marist Institute confirmed that the conviction would have little impact on two-thirds of respondents.

Nicholas Higgins estimated the percentage of voters who might vote for a third candidate or abstain at about 1 percent.

He added, "But we should not expect a shift to Joe Biden" because of the ruling.

Another poll, conducted by YouGov for Yahoo! News, found Americans' interest in the trial to be mixed. 31 percent said they were bored following the trial, while only 26 percent found it interesting.

Only half of those surveyed thought that falsifying accounts to hide payments was a serious crime.

Experts said that a drop in the number of votes Donald Trump received, even if marginal, could have a significant impact on the six or seven states that will decide the outcome of the election.

Donald Neiman, a professor of history at Binghamton University, predicted that the election would be decided by "a few thousand votes in those states, and a condemnation would certainly hurt him".

In addition, Jared Carter, a professor at Vermont Law School, believed that the verdict could strengthen the support of those who already supported Donald Trump, but alienate independent voters.

He added, "In some of the state battlegrounds, these independent voters, who are undoubtedly moderate Republicans, are going to make a big difference."

He added, "If you look beyond the turmoil and the headlines and assess the situation by supporting his electoral base, I think the impact will be negative and could cost him the election," referring to Trump.

Ray Brescia, a professor at Albany Law School, emphasized that the trial's impact could be magnified by the fact that it may be the only one of the various lawsuits targeting the Republican nominee to issue a ruling before the election.

"It's hard to tell how many voters will turn away from Trump, but even a small shift could have serious consequences," he said.