Examining the potential candidates and scenarios for Russia's leadership post-Putin era

Vladimir Putin has governed Russia for almost two decades, and there are growing concerns about his health, with some speculating that he might be suffering from Parkinson's disease or another neurological disorder. As a result, the discussion about Putin's successor is now more focused on his biological age. The question is who will take his place once he's gone, and it is expected that Putin won't name a successor until the last minute. Experts have examined Putin's inner circle and opposition to identify potential candidates and what they might mean for Russia's future. One such candidate is Sergei Shoigu, Russia's defense minister and a key figure in the conflict with Ukraine. Shoigu is seen as representing the "deep Russia" that Putin has cultivated, with a strong connection to the Siberian tribes and a reputation for effectively managing emergency situations. However, at 67, he may not be young enough to be Putin's ideal successor. Another potential candidate is Dmitry Kovalev, the 36-year-old head of Putin's presidential administration department. He is a relatively new face in Putin's inner circle, which could work to his advantage. Putin has stated that he would prefer a younger successor, and age may be a crucial factor in the selection process.

The Kremlin has repeatedly denied rumors that Putin is sick, and instead has surrounded himself with loyal allies such as Sergey Kirienko, a 60-year-old who rose to prominence as a banker in the 1990s and has since held various high-ranking positions in the government, including as the first deputy chief of staff of the presidential executive office. Kirienko's recent appointment as the head of rebuilding efforts in territory taken from Ukraine further solidifies his powerful position within the government. Kirienko was also hand-picked by Putin to serve as president from 2008 to 2012 and has been known to be less hostile towards the West than Putin. Other potential candidates for Putin's successor include the mayor of Moscow, Sobyanin, who has proven to be a competent manager and has overseen significant economic growth in the city. However, the war in Ukraine presents a dangerous opportunity for Sobyanin to increase his power and influence. Additionally, the prominent opposition figure Alexey Navalny, who has gained international recognition, could also be a potential candidate for leadership in Russia.

Alexei Navalny, a lawyer and political activist, is Putin's biggest critic who founded a grassroots movement to combat corruption among Russian officials. In 2018, he was prevented from running for president due to a fraud conviction that many believed was politically motivated. Despite spending time in jail during his campaign, Navalny has had a significant impact on Russian politics through his YouTube channel, where he posted well-produced videos exposing corruption among top officials, including Putin. While the Kremlin has attempted to silence him, such as allegedly poisoning him in August 2020, experts doubt that Navalny could succeed Putin because the regime has effectively quashed opposition voices. Volodin, the speaker of the Russian parliament, was once a Putin critic but is now a supporter and has ensured that the Kremlin can pass any laws it wishes. Although he comes from a region that represents 40% of Russia's population and may have a better understanding of the country's diversity and poverty, experts argue that Nikolai Patruchev lacks the ability to comprehend daily life, making it difficult for the Kremlin to present him as someone who understands the Russian people.

The reason for his position is because he spent five decades as a spy, and even worked with Putin in the KGB. Nikolai Patruchev is now the head of Russia's Security Council and one of the few officials in Putin's inner circle. According to experts, he is likely the brains behind Russia's recent military conflicts, as he has always been staunchly anti-Western and has influenced Putin to adopt this position. However, his age may be a concern, as he is only a few years younger than Putin and would only serve as an interim leader. As for who Putin's successor could be, it is uncertain, but it is possible that Putin could choose someone unexpected. Regardless, Putin has said that his successor must continue his legacy and be someone he trusts to take care of Russia after his departure.