Crime on the street of America

What we overwhelmingly heard from folks was, fear of crime in downtown business districts. It was two years into the pandemic, and in the middle of what felt like an explosion of American crime. “Crime spiking on the streets of— cities across the country grapple with crime— crime has increased— nationwide spike in violent crime— violent crime in the US is rising— homicides increased by 36%.” But since then, the story has gotten a little more confusing. Sometimes, the news says that crime is going down. But other times... “Crime is turning cities into war zones.” “FBI is underreporting” “Random acts of violence.” Two thirds of Americans say crime in the US is a very or extremely serious problem. And more than three quarters of us say there's more crime than a year ago. So which is it? Crime up or crime down? And if it is down, what exactly do most Americans actually think is happening with crime? Crime. Crime. Crime, crime, Crime! Crime. Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! Crime! So, my first question was, when the news says that crime has decreased, where’s that info coming from? I asked my colleague Abdallah. My name is Abdallah Fayyad, I'm a policy correspondent at Vox. The two areas that we get our crime statistics from are: The FBI crime database.... Law enforcement agencies around the country voluntarily report their crime data. The other is the National Crime Victimization Survey, which is administered by the federal government, and asks people directly whether or not they have been victims of a crime. And both of these sources have their own limitations. The survey usually talks to around a quarter of a million people, which is both a lot of people, and only about 0.07% of the country. And the FBI’s data is by nature only made up of crimes that get reported to police. That's actually a big reason the FBI’s data on homicide is one of the most widely studied and cited crime statistics — because murder is almost always reported. Now, right now, this chart ends in 2019. Add 2020, and we see murder spike. There is a reason why people feel like crime is going up — because crime was going up. But experts we talked to also recommended putting that spike into context: of the way that things were before this. What sociologists and criminologists refer to as the great crime decline of the nineties. And if you extend the chart in the other direction too, all the way to 2023, that 2020 spike starts to look temporary. It's now falling. Not yet to where it was before the pandemic, but down. So that's homicide. But we can also look at the FBI's broader violent crime rate over that same period of time, which also looks like it's falling. The national property crime rate is a similar story. This doesn't mean that all crime is going down everywhere. But it does mean it's down in most places. And yet. 77% of us say the opposite is true. So let's look closer at that. The polling organization Gallup has actually been asking Americans this question for about 35 years. And their data on how people have answered it over that time gives us a clue on how to interpret it. Because it turns out, with the exception of like two years, a majority of Americans have always said that crime is higher than it was last year. What we're seeing is a consistent fear about crime, despite the fact that over the same period of time, crime had been steadily on the decline. And it's also worth taking a similar look at this chart from earlier, where two thirds of Americans say crime is a very or extremely serious problem in the US. We can also chart that over time, and see that it is also a pretty consistent belief. But Gallup also asked another version of that question: How serious a problem is crime in your area? And only a small minority of Americans typically say that crime where they live is a very or extremely serious problem. In other words... The vast majority of Americans feel safe.

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What we overwhelmingly heard from folks was fear of crime in downtown business districts. It was two years into the pandemic, and in the middle of what felt like an explosion of American crime. Reports of crime spiking in cities across the country were widespread, with headlines shouting about a nationwide spike in violent crime and homicides increasing by 36%. However, as time passed, the narrative around crime became more ambiguous. Some reports suggested that crime was decreasing, while others continued to paint a grim picture of violence on the streets.

With conflicting information circulating, it's important to understand where these statistics come from. Crime data is primarily collected from two sources: the FBI crime database, which relies on voluntary reporting from law enforcement agencies, and the National Crime Victimization Survey, which surveys individuals about their experiences with crime. However, both of these sources have their limitations. The survey samples only a small percentage of the population, while the FBI's data is based on reported crimes, excluding those that go unreported.

Looking at the data from these sources, there is evidence to suggest that violent crime rates, including homicide, have been on the decline. Despite this, the majority of Americans continue to express concerns about rising crime levels. This discrepancy can be attributed to a consistent fear of crime that has persisted over the years, even during periods of declining crime rates.

It's also important to consider the perception of crime in one's own community. While a significant portion of Americans believe that crime is a serious problem in the US as a whole, fewer individuals feel that crime is a major concern in their local area. This disparity between national and local perceptions of crime paints a complex picture of public attitudes towards safety and security.

Ultimately, the data suggests that while there may be fluctuations in crime rates over time, the majority of Americans feel safe in their day-to-day lives. It is important to critically evaluate the information presented in the media and consider the broader context of crime trends before forming opinions on the state of public safety.