What happens if Ukraine wins the war?

Is there a potential for Ukraine to win the battle against Russia? Discover more in today's spectacular new narrative, which examines a different ending than most people predict from the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. 🏆🤧🤯

What might happen if Ukraine won the war? Nuclear attacks on Kiev, a global cyberwar, and a final showdown between Russia and NATO The initial Russian invasion of Ukraine met with a mix of success and failure. The thrust south out of Belarus towards Kyiv was intended to be a fatal decapitation strike that put an end to the war in a matter of days. It attacked from four different directions. The post-World War II era would witness one of the most catastrophic strategic failures as a result of this quick war-ending plan. It was discovered that Russian troops and equipment were severely lacking in training, capability, and even basic maintenance, while Ukrainian resistance and capabilities were grossly underestimated.

The attack on Kyiv revealed to the world that the once-feared Russian army was a lumbering, helpless giant that caused as much damage to itself as to its enemies. But despite its failures in the north, Russia had much greater success in its attack on southern Ukraine, and in its advance towards Kherson, it had some of its greatest operational successes. Even Ukrainian air power was successfully suppressed here, in contrast to other parts of the country where slow, unreliable Bayraktar drones destroyed very expensive and sophisticated air defense vehicles, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat repeatedly. Despite all of its gains in the south, the Russian offensive slowed down at the start of the summer.

Once it became clear that Ukraine would not fall in a matter of weeks, plans were already in place for the US to provide it with combat vehicles, including the infamous HIMARS system, depending on which side of the new iron curtain you are on. Now that Ukraine has the ability to launch long-range precision strikes, it could really hurt Russia by destroying ammunition depots and command centers located far from the front lines. The Russian offensive was inevitably slowed down as a result of having to move their logistical hubs farther away from Himar's line of sight. The offensive was making daily gains that were only one or two meters long by the middle of the summer.

The offensive was officially at a standstill by the end of the summer. Once Ukraine launched its counterattack, it quickly retook large portions of northern territory and exerted significant pressure on Kherson, the only significant city and regional capital that Russia had been able to capture. When Kherson was freed in November, the world began to wonder whether Ukraine could defeat Russia and what would happen if it did. But first, how could Ukraine defeat Russia? Russia's military may be corrupt, inexperienced, and fighting according to 20th-century doctrine, but it still poses a serious threat to a country like Ukraine.

Modern tools, training, soldier nutrition, and blankets are what Russia lacks, in terms of sheer numbers, it more than makes up for everything. Despite the fact that they may only have four magazines of ammo and have only fired their weapon once, Russian conscripts are still being sent in large numbers to the front lines. Russian forces are expected to remain sizable in number for a very long time due to the conscription drive that occurs every two years and the stop-loss measures Russia has implemented to prevent people from leaving the military after their contracts expire. 300,000 people have already been conscripted. Quantity is a quality all on its own, and while this would not matter against the forces of a modern western military, Ukraine simply does not have the equipment and experience to deliver the type of shock and awe warfare that has seen vastly outnumbered US forces routinely defeat much larger militaries in the last thirty years.

Ukraine will need to return a significant number of conscripts in body bags if it wants to defeat Russia in the occupied territories. The fact that Russia is currently on the defensive adds to the challenges and gives even their inexperienced and demoralized conscripts a significant advantage. The US and its European allies will need to keep giving Ukraine financial assistance while also providing modern weaponry. HIMARS and the HARM, or High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile, were two American weapons that completely changed the game for Ukraine. As Ukraine planned and then carried out its counteroffensive, HARM missiles were and will remain crucial.

Even simple Bayraktar drones could operate in the southern territory and support troops with direct fire thanks to HARM, which made it possible for Ukraine to shape the battlefield during pre-operational operations. Early in the spring, the US recognized HARM as a crucial requirement for Ukraine, but the issue was that American HARMs were designed to be carried and fired by western planes. US engineers were dispatched to the issue right away, and they improvised a fix that allowed American HARMs to communicate with Ukrainian MIGs. Once that obstacle had been overcome, Ukrainian fighters quickly took to the skies to conduct Wild Weasel missions to suppress enemy air defenses.

Russia made a concerted effort to cast doubt on HARM's efficacy. It spread false information about HARM weapons locking onto microwaves in the Donbas, which, if true, would only make these weapons even more terrifying than they already are. This is because it requires an astronomically high level of sensitivity to even detect, let alone target, faint microwaves from hundreds of miles away. But the simple observation that before HARM was in theater, Ukraine's slow drones weren't operating anywhere near the Kherson front dismantled Russia's media campaign to demonize the US and its weapons and reassure its own civilians.

Following HARM, Ukrainian drones returned to their favorite past time of detonating Russian automobiles. That's fortunate, because the unfortunate creatures were probably incredibly bored after taking in the absolute Disneyland that was blowing up the convoy's 40-mile length outside of Kiev. Ukraine will require more modern weapon systems overall, not just HIMARS and HARM, with over two dozen HIMARS systems already present and none of them having been verified as destroyed. Without this vital force multiplier, not even Ukraine's massive conscription effort—which began at the beginning of the war and is now yielding thousands of trained soldiers each week—will be sufficient to achieve a decisive victory.

There have been ongoing discussions about which contemporary systems can be sent to Ukraine because Western powers are aware of this. For example, the United States continues to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-15 Eagle, a highly capable aircraft, for the missions Ukraine needs fighters for. But because the training is so intense, it won't be possible for Ukrainians to fly American F-15s until at least next summer. This effort will take a very long time to complete. Additionally, the possibility of sending the Abrams to Ukraine has been noted. Abrams tanks were on the table for Ukraine back in September, according to a US confirmation, but no tanks have arrived as of yet.

Training Ukrainian tank crews to operate the Abrams will take time, much like training pilots to fly the F-15. However, it's not just about training; it's also about the fact that sending the M1 Abrams to Ukraine will necessitate the development of an entire logistics network to support the tank in combat situations. Additionally, a lot of time, money, and staff are required for this. Consequently, if the Abrams film does premiere in Ukraine, it won't be until late in the following year. The long list of items on Ukraine's wish list, including Leopard 2s, Gripen fighters, and additional air defense systems, is unavoidable if it hopes to defeat Russia. Right now, Ukraine has a good chance of forcing a cease-fire, and it even appears that Russia is open to talks about a compromise.

However, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his supporters made it abundantly clear that winning for Ukraine entailed taking back all occupied territories, including Crimea. There is no chance of this occurring without massive and ongoing Western support because Russian forces are firmly established in Crimea. What does it matter if Ukraine succeeds in its bid to join the EU and NATO? This crisis was initially sparked by Ukraine's desire to do so. Vladimir Putin started a war that resulted in the creation of two new NATO members because he didn't want to see yet another neighbor come under the control of western powers while he was in office.