REASONS WHY RUSSIA INVADE UKRAINE

In this article, we'll try and understand the ongoing Russia Ukraine conflict. See the first thing that you have to understand is that the tension between Russia and Ukraine is primarily because of two reasons. One Ukraine is a matter of strategic importance to Russia. Look at the size of Ukraine. It is a big country that is right in between the European Union and Russia. So this is very straightforward and I will tell you more about it in a while. And the second reason is there is also a territorial conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As you may know, currently Russia is in control of Crimea and then there are two region on eastern Ukraine which is called Don Isx and Luhansk. So these together combine to form Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. So Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union after 1991. Ukraine became a separate country and declared itself an independent country on 24th August 1991. As you can see, this map Ukraine shares borders with both the European Union and Russia. But as a former Soviet Republic it has a deep social and cultural ties with Russia and Russian language is widely spoken there, especially on the eastern side of Ukraine. Now if you look at the eastern Ukrainian regions which are bordered with Russia, it has more Russian speaking people and that is very natural, right? If you go near the border areas of any country or state you will see that people from both sides of the border exist. Here also you will find both Ukrainian as well as Russian people. But then as we know Ukraine was part of Soviet Union. Naturally after Ukrainian ethnicity, Russian ethnic group is the largest and Needless to say there will be more Russian speaking people on the eastern regions of Ukraine. Now with that one more thing that is very common at body areas is that there will be groups who are both political as well as armed, who will have their own regional interests. That means there are political as well as armed groups in eastern Ukraine who are pro Russian. Naturally, when politics is involved, definitely Russia will have its own interests secured.

Now if you look at it from geopolitics POV, one should not be surprised if Russian political fraternity in Moscow support these eastern Ukrainian Russian speaking groups. It's totally normal in geopolitics. Similarly, even Ukraine can do it, but then compared to Russia, Ukraine is comparatively a new country, so it's difficult for Ukraine to counter the Russian culture that has a long history. That is why Western liberal democracy is doing that job for Ukraine and giving the ideological support to Ukraine in opposing the Russian culture. There is an old saying you cannot defeat a culture. A culture takes hundreds and thousands of years to evolve. It's practically not possible to change any culture overnight or in few years, so it is the same thing for Ukraine. Ukraine comparatively, is a young country in front of Russia. There are subtle differences between the Russian and Ukrainian culture. If one pays close attention. Otherwise at first sight you will not be able to figure out who is Russian or Ukrainian unless you start speaking about politics or carefully listen to the pronunciation or you see them wearing their national clothes. Both the cultures are very close, yet there are subtle differences which are difficult to spot for an outsider. Plus it takes hardly 2 hours to go by train from Kiev, capital of Ukraine to Moscow and 30 years ago it was all one country, so ethnically Ukrainians and Russians are very mixed. There's hardly any difference in their cultures. For Ukrainian people, Ukraine is their own country. There are no two thoughts in it. Of course, any group or any section of the population that has pro Russian sentiments inside Ukraine is not going to be acceptable to the Ukrainian political fraternity as well as Ukrainian majority. It is also seen as a threat against Ukraine's national sovereignty. In fact, no country would like that. So if you look at things from Ukrainian political perspective and national interest, these eastern Ukrainian Russian speaking groups that support Russia are called as rebels. And separatists now to understand this whole conflict, we need to go back in time at least 10 to 15 years behind. That is how we will get a perspective of this issue.

I'll give you a quick overview if you look at the current President of Ukraine. He's Vladimir Zelenski. He became the president on 20th May 2019 before him from 2014 the Ukrainian president was Petro Poroshenko and if you go further behind from 2010 2014, the President of Ukraine was Viktor Yanukovich. It is important to mention all these 3 presidents whose collective tenure spans over a decade. In total, there were seven presidents in Ukraine till now since 1991. But to understand the Russian and Ukrainian conflict, we only need to know the events that took place during these 3 presidential terms. Now let me quickly tell you about the political parties in Ukraine. After that I will categorize these 3 Presidents as per their political affiliation so that you somewhat get a broad political picture of Ukraine. So basically the politics of Ukraine is divided into 3 categories. Actually the major ones are two, but there are political groups who are in between. So together there are three categories in which all the political parties in Ukraine, irrespective of the ideology can be easily categorized. The first category includes those political parties who are Pro Western. They also support NATO. They are pro European. They believe in the liberal democracy of the Western countries and they're also anti Russian. The second category includes all political parties that are Pro Russia. They like the old Soviet culture. They are eurosceptic meaning. They criticize European Union and they are often anti American and they are also not very liberal. The third category includes political parties that only focus on regional and local interest. In political science there is a term for it. It is called the ideology of regionalism and almost all the political parties in this category are comparatively new. They were formed in the last 5-6 years or so. So basically you can think of them as new emerging political parties. Who are still figuring out the nerve of the Ukrainian public trying to build their foundation, and once they garner enough supporters, it will be interesting to see which side will they choose. Because once you transition out of regional politics, you then have to face national politics and national politics of any country has a direct correlation with international relations at the international level.

Even if you don't like it, you will be forced to take sides. It's not at all possible to be neutral. You can try to be neutral on less important matters, but then when it comes to strategic interests. You will end up taking sides, so these are the three categories or you can say political camps in which all the political parties in Ukraine fall into. Now I will categorize these 3 Presidents as per their political affiliation. The current president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. His political affiliation is with servant of the people party, which basically falls in the first category, then former President Petro Poroshenko belong to the European Solidarity Party by the name European solidarity. You can easily figure out that even this falls in the first category. And finally, if you look at the former President Viktor Yanukovych in 80s, he was part of the Communist Party of Soviet Union. Once Ukraine got separated, he joined a political party called Party of Regions in late 1997, which later on became the biggest party of Ukraine between and 2014. This political party in 2014 merged with another political party by the name opposition platform for Life, which is basically a pro Russian anti American and eurosceptic political party. Now I will begin the story from. Viktor Yanukovych is presidential term, so he won the election on 25th February His election was generally considered as free and fair because he was quite popular at that time, and one of the reasons for his popularity can also be given to his predecessors government. It was not competent, and it was going through internal issues. That is how Viktor Yanukovich became Ukraine's favorite presidential candidate. As soon as he became the president in March in the very same year, he made couple of mistakes or blunders you can see. The Ukrainian public saw it as a blunder. So what happened was in April That is one month after winning the election, his government signed a landmark agreement with Russian government in the city of Kharkiv. At that time Dmitry Medvedev was the Russian President and the Prime Minister was Vladimir Putin. As per this agreement, Russia agreed to reduce the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine by 30%. In return, Russia wanted the Ukrainian government to extend the lease of Russian naval base in the Black Sea at Sevastopol. In Ukraine for years, this was the deal. Now let me tell you this point quickly. You know, after the end of Soviet Union in the newly independent Ukraine had many issues with Russia. One of them was how to divide the fleet of Russian Navy in the Black Sea, among both the countries. So both the countries had an arrangement in which Ukraine agreed to allow Russia to use the seaports of Black Sea and other facilities in Crimea. This agreement got extended for more 25 years in after the arrival of President Viktor Yanukovych. So I hope you are getting what was happening. This agreement was heavily criticized by the Ukrainian public, why? Because if you look at it from Ukraine's point of view, it was like letting Russia control Crimea and exchange of low cost gas. Even America was paying attention to Yanukovich's policies and the United States was not in favor of his policies. This is where things get interesting. You have to understand this. United States always had interest in Ukraine when Ukraine got separated 1991. United States quickly recognized Ukraine and extended full support It was United States. Who helped Ukraine and Russia come to an agreement on the elimination of Soviet nuclear weapon systems in Ukraine and insured security and safety for Ukraine. If you remember the Turnable nuclear disaster 1986, it happened in Ukraine. America did help Ukraine in cleaning up the nuclear waste at Chernobill after the meltdown. US and many other countries had donated huge amount of money in controlling the situation. Even India had donated anyhow after leaving Soviet Union in 1991. In

the following years, Ukraine was added to nonproliferation treaty by United States. And 1997, NATO and Ukraine partnership started developing. I'm not saying Ukraine became part of NATO. I'm saying the partnership was developing in 2003. Ukraine had deployed thousands of troops in Iraq and supported the invasion of Iraq by United States. So you see, United States always had interest in Ukraine and likewise Ukraine also extended its full support to United States. And on the other hand, Russia was always against United States and European Union's interference in Ukraine. Now, coming back 2010. When President Viktor Yanukovych made a deal with the Russians and extended their lease of the naval base in Crimea, United States, and the Ukrainian public were not at all in favor of it. After a few months that is, in October 2010, Yanukovych amended the Ukrainian constitution and brought back certain provisions that existed before 2004. Basically, he changed Article 111 of the Ukrainian Constitution, which is regarding president's removal. Now, this created a negative perception among the public. A large portion of the Ukrainian. Population started disliking him, opposition political parties and public started thinking this guy is trying to run Ukraine similar to Russian Federation because if you see the same kind of steps have been taken by leaders in Soviet Russia, then you also must be aware that Vladimir Putin had also made similar provisions and increased his presidential term limits even in Germany when it was known as Prussia. This kind of steps were taken by Bismarck, who was the head of the State of Prussia, and it worked pretty fine for them. So even Viktor Yanukovych was. Under the impression that even he could get away by allocating more powers to himself so that he remains the President for as long as he wanted, then in the following years he was facing a lot of corruption charges. Many media reports claimed that his immediate family members benefited a lot during his presidency. By the end of 2012, approval ratings and popularity felt like anything

to save his image. He had to do a few things. You can call it damage control. What he did was in early months of 2013. and his ministers were totally in favor of signing the European Union Association Agreement, and there was a significant support from the Ukrainian public Yanukovych and his government fully promoted this deal, and it is obvious, right? If the public loves the policy, then any government will talk loud and promote the policy before making it happen, so that the politician can increase their approval ratings. That is exactly what Yanukovych and his government did. They spoke so much about the European Union Association Agreement and created a massive hype among the Ukrainian public. And even the public had full faith in Yanukovych, because this European Union Association deal, it is an opportunity for not just Ukraine's economic reform, but the Ukrainian public saw this as a civilizational choice. They wanted to get away from the old Soviet Russian culture and move towards something more modern, like the European culture. I'm not saying everyone in Ukraine wanted that, but vast majority of the Ukrainian public has this notion. So anyhow, Yanukovych and his government created all the hype and the Ukrainian public was in full support. And on 21st November 2013, the government went back on its promise and suspended the signing of European Union. Ukraine Association agreement. That means Yanukovich went back on his own promises and that created a civil unrest in Ukraine. Initially it was a protest that turned into riots, then civil disobedience and later into a movement. And this was also called the Euromaidan movement, and the purpose of this movement was to remove President Viktor Yanukovych. There was a massive protest in the capital city of Kiev. So you can imagine how much the public of Ukraine wanted to sign the deal and join the European Union protests and clashes went on even in January 2014 in the same month the Ukrainian parliament passed a group of anti protest laws that made the public even more angry. Protesters occupied

government buildings in many regions of Ukraine. The police even fired live and rubber ammunition at multiple locations in Kiev as a result of these events, the agreement on settlement of Political crisis in Ukraine was signed. On 21st February 2014, Yanukovych under the mediation of European Union and the Russian Federation. Shortly after the agreement was signed, Yanukovich and other high government officials fled the country. Afterwards, the Parliament removed Yanukovych from office, and soon there was a fresh protest in Crimea and also in the regions of eastern Ukraine, where majority public were Russian speaking. If you look at the public opinion polls of the protest, it was found that about to of Ukrainians supported the Euromaidan movement. The biggest support for the protests can be found in Kiev and western Ukraine. Almost similar percentage of Ukrainian public even opposed the movement. There are many such studies that suggest that the Ukrainian public has a mixed opinion regarding the idea of joining the European Union. So anyhow, in March 2014, Yanukovych and some of his government officials fled to Russia, a temporary government in Ukraine was appointed Petro. Poroshenko was elected as the president in 2014. He's a Ukrainian billionaire businessman and was also the opposition leader during the crisis. In many of his interviews, he even said that he was one of the organizers of the protests, so naturally he gained public sympathy and that's how he became the next favorite presidential candidate of Ukraine. Now an interesting thing that happened in February and March 2014. What happened was when Viktor Yanukovych was signing the agreement on settlement of Political Crisis in Ukraine, and I even mentioned when the Euromaidan movement reached at its peak Yanukovich and some of his government officials fled the country. Afterwards, the parliament removed Yanukovich from office when all of this was happening. There were fresh protests happening in Crimea and in regions of eastern Ukraine where majority of the public are rushing, speaking. Some

reports even suggest that. Because of the Euromaidan movement, Ukraine state security forces had to use full force to curb the protest. In doing so, the conflict got escalated and that led to fresh protests in Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine. Anyhow, when all the political drama was happening in the city of Kiev, Russia strategically invaded and took over the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine and it was planned strategically. Russian troops who were masked took over the Supreme Council. That is the Parliament of Crimea and install their own pro Russian Sergei. Axion government in Crimea, Russia even conducted the Crimean referendum and as I said, majority of the people in Crimea and eastern part of Ukraine are Russian speaking, so they voted in favor of Russian Federation and 16th March 2014 was declared as creamy as independence. Naturally, if you look at it from Ukraine's point of view, they condemn it and even consider to be a violation of international law. the United Nation also has similar view and it is in favor of Ukraine. But then the Russian government defends it. And says that there was a proper referendum where the people of Crimea has voted in favor of Russia. It is called the principle of self-determination of peoples self-determination is also called the right of people. Anyhow, the point is that Russia took over Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, so 2014 is an important year in the history of Ukraine. For three reasons the Euromaidan movement came to an end. New president was elected and Ukraine lost Crimea. Now in March 2014 when Russia took control of Crimea. Vladimir Putin was the President of Russia. So what he did was you can call it a political move or whatever. What he did was he publicly spoke about protecting the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. Immediately after his statement, the Russian ethnic group in the eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine felt connected. There was already a crisis going on in Ukraine and in the middle of that these Russian people in Ukraine strongly

connected to the Russian President's statement. They felt that somebody is talking about them. And that created an ethnic division in the eastern regions of Ukraine, and these regions are Donuts and Luhansk. I want you to look at this map. The violence started here between the separatist forces in the region and the Ukrainian military. If you see, these regions are boarded by Russia. So obviously these separatist forces are being backed by Russia, although Russia denies its involvement. But then we have to agree that without the support of a bigger nation, minority groups cannot form their own armed forces and go against their own. Countries military, by the way, Donetsk and Luhansk are also called the Donbass region. There are two airports here, one is in Donetsk and the other one is in Luhansk, and these are international airports of course. Now they are officially closed because they are under the control of rebel forces. Moments back I told you that without the support of Big Nation, minority groups cannot form their armed forces. Russia has been supplying military equipment and training to the rebel groups that exist in the Donbass region. Many media reports even say that Russia has also supplied heavy military equipment like surface to air missile system that were used by the rebel forces at these two airports. If you remember, in July 2014 Malaysian Airline 17 was shot down over Ukraine airspace. The airline was crashed and burned in the Donbass. Region so if you look up on the Internet, everyone says that it was shut down by a Russian built surface to air missile system, which is a M1 missile supplied by Russia to the rebel forces. In fact, before this incident many Ukrainian Air Force aircraft have been shot down by the rebel forces from these airports. For instance, illusion 76 transport aircraft of the 25th Transport Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force was shut down by the rebel forces near Luhansk airport. There are many such incidents. So unfortunately, the Malaysian airline incident of July 2014 in Ukraine escalated

into an International Crisis. On one side you have the United States and European Union and on the other side you have. Russia and Ukraine became the battleground. Then on 5th September 2014, France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine came up with a ceasefire agreement through the Minsk Agreement. So basically the aim of this agreement was to end the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine. Minsk is the capital of Belarus on 5th September 2014. The head of all these four countries, France and Germany represented OSC. They all signed the agreement, but then the agreement failed and there were many ceasefire violations in Donbas. Again, afresh agreement was set up. It was called Minsk 2 which was signed on 12th February 2015. Even this failed, you have to understand why this Minsk agreement failed. If you look at it from Ukraine's perspective, they weren't couple of things. They won't ceasefire withdrawal of heavy weaponry and full Ukrainian government control throughout the conflict zone. If you see from Russia's perspective, Russia wants autonomy of Donbass. Russia wants this region to govern itself and control its own affairs, because Russia is confident that here the people are Russian speaking and they are Pro Russians. So it will be easy for Russia to exercise military and political influence. On the other hand, Ukraine is aware of this. That is why it is against the autonomy of Donbass. You see, Donbass region is one of the prosperous industrialized regions of Ukraine before the conflict. Similarly even the Crimean Peninsula is one of the. Prosperous, industrialized regions of Ukraine and the inputs from these regions towards Ukraine's industrial production was very high, and right now Crimea is in full control of Russia and Donbass region is in control of Pro Russian rebel forces, so This is why the Minsk agreement failed twice. And by the way the whole Donbass region is 427 kilometer long frontline. You have to understand that such a long frontline is dividing the once prosperous industrial region of Ukraine. That's why even Ukraine is not

willing to settle. And on the other hand, Russia wants the strategic importance of this region, and Russia somewhere also knows that if Ukraine becomes a stable state then it will immediately resume its interest in associating with European Union. That is why Russia is pushing for autonomy for the territories of the Donbass region. It's very simple as long as there will be a conflict in Ukraine, there will be no successful association agreement with the European Union. So basically both the countries Ukraine and Russia know each other's moves and they are adamant on it. Ukraine and Russia cannot agree on autonomy for the Donbass region because they fundamentally disagree on the provisions. So after the failed 2015 Minsk agreement, nothing much changed. Two sides exchanged prisoners, they sometimes agreed on the withdrawal of heavy weapons, and sometimes they even agreed on ceasefires, but for a short period and nothing more than that ever developed. Then in 2019, the current President Volodymyr Zelensky was elected as the new President of Ukraine. He agreed to implement this 10 mile formula. So what is 10 minus formula? It is basically a peace plan proposed by the former German President Frank Walter Steinmeier as an alternative to the Minsk Agreement. As per this formula, Ukraine has to grant self governing status to the territories of Donbas only after conducting local elections. Whatever may be the outcome after the election, it will be recognized by the OSC Group. But again, there was one problem. Ukraine had a demand, it first wanted a complete ceasefire, and withdrawal of all Russian troops and weapons. Only then the elections would be held. Basically, Ukraine wanted to regain full control over its eastern bottle before the elections are held under Ukrainian law. Do you know what Russia said elections and autonomy first, then everything else? So if you see it was a big risk for Ukraine by accepting Russia's terms, Ukraine would have taken a big risk of rebuilding and supporting the economy of an autonomous region whose vast political powers would have been under

Pro Russian leadership. So it is a huge risk for Ukraine. Hypothetically, anything could have happened, for example, who knows after granting autonomy. Maybe this region would have stirred and internal conflict or helped Russia maintain the influence of Ukraine. Domestic affairs, so even 10 miles formula did not work. I want you to understand the situation in which Ukraine is currently in Ukraine currently is not in a position to have a full fledged war against Russia and reclaim its territory. It definitely needs the help of NATO. Ukraine is also not able to conduct local elections because Russia has made it very clear you first conduct elections and give autonomy. Only then we go for a complete ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops and weapons and Ukraine cannot accept these terms because if it does then it is guaranteed that the Donbass region will be fully under Russia's control and then Ukraine will have to grant full amnesty to people who participated in anti nationalist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk on top of it the Donbass region can also cause. Internal conflict in Ukraine's domestic affairs. And then you can also cannot give a special status to the Donbass region. The Ukrainian public will see it as giving a concession to Russia public will not like it. And who knows, this could lead to a similar type of protests and riots like the Euromaidan movement in 2013, which led to the removal of President Viktor Yanukovich, the current President of Ukraine has to think about all of this, otherwise he will easily end up like former President Viktor Yanukovych, and then you also have to understand that no pro European Ukrainian party will have a chance. Of winning the election in the Donbass region for the past eight years, this region has been cut off from Ukrainian politics and media. It has been under the influence of Russia. It's going to be extremely difficult for Ukrainian politicians to counter the Russian narrative in this region. If it were to conduct elections. If Ukraine wants to confront Russia directly, it definitely needs NATO's help. In April 2016, NATO announced

that the alliance would deploy 4 battalions to Eastern Europe, moving troops through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in order to counter possible future Russian aggression in other parts of Europe. Then, in October 2018, Ukraine joined the United States and seven other not Atlantic Treaty organization countries in a series of large scale air exercises in western Ukraine. If Ukraine needs so much of NATO. Help and the United States is serious about giving Security Assistance to Ukraine. Then why is it that till now Ukraine has not received NATO membership? Have you ever thought about it? Ukraine's public is in full support of NATO. In fact the public is in full support of whatever the European Union and the United States have to throw at Ukraine. Then why is it that till now Ukraine has not received European Union membership as well as NATO membership? Of course Ukraine is part of drug agreement which is trade related. I'm talking about the actual European Union membership as well as NATO membership and the answer to that question is not with Ukraine. You have to ask European Union and the United States if they have so much concern about Ukraine. The first thing they should have done is give them membership and deploy all NATO's resources across the Ukrainian border against Russia, European Union and the United States will not do that. Now I want you to pay attention to this because if you give Ukraine the European Union membership then there will be a large scale migration from Ukraine. To other parts of Europe people are innocent. They will migrate for a better life, better economic opportunities. European Union doesn't want that. Now coming to NATO membership, there's very little support within NATO for granting Ukraine membership. Why? Because the United States and European Union knows that Russia is already inside Ukraine the moment they grant NATO membership. They have no other option but to interfere and deploy their troops as a NATO ally and rage a full scale war against Russia just now, America. Got out of Afghanistan? Do you think the United States will take the risk

of sending its own troops to Ukraine and fight the Russians? And even if the United States decides to do that, what reason will they give? Oh, it's time to protect Ukraine, their citizens. Freedom of right from Russian cruelty. If they give this as the reason, then what were you doing for the past eight years? So Russia is openly saying conduct elections and give autonomy to the Donbass region Russians are talking about the elections which is the symbol of democracy. How can the United States take? All of the NATO forces and attack Russia, so even United States and NATO countries are aware of this situation. That is why they are not in a hurry to give Ukraine NATO membership. Ukraine and Russia cannot agree on autonomy for the Donbass region because they fundamentally disagree on the provisions. So the only way is that someone has to bend. Now the question is who will do it if Ukraine bends then it understands the risk of another civil unrest just like the Euromaidan movement. So it will not accept any concessions to Russia. Russia will also not move back because it will do everything to secure its interests. After all, it's the West against Russia alone that will create a powerful narrative for Russia and it is happening. Many countries are supporting Russia and Russia also very well knows as long as Ukraine has United States and European Union support, Russia will not let go. It's leverage over Ukraine. So right now the West is collectively thinking how to neutralize Russia's leverage over Ukraine as well as Europe. Because Russia also supplies. Energy in the form of natural gas to Europe. That is why you must have heard that the United States has threatened Russia to stall, not stream 2. The multibillion dollar natural gas pipeline project between Russia and Europe. If Russia invades Ukraine. So this is the kind of leverage I'm talking about. The West is collectively thinking about how to neutralize Russia leverage over Ukraine as well as Europe. Europe remains one of Russia's largest natural gas markets, and you very much know that if the United States is good at one thing that would be putting sanctions. And

that is why the United States is threatening Russia, that it will put sanctions on the North Stream 2 pipeline. However, before placing sanctions on the export of natural gas from Russia to Europe, the European Union countries will also need to look for alternate exporters. And even if America still decides to put sanctions on not stream 2 pipeline, then it will also negatively impact five major European. Energy companies that have a major stake in the pipeline, including engine, Shell, Uniper and Wintershall, and by the way, you also must be aware that Russia supplies natural gas to Ukraine as well. In fact, the majority of the gas that is supplied to the European market is supplied through pipelines that travel across Ukrainian soil and look at the twist a few days back. Ukraine had accused the United States of hurting its economy by raising tensions with Russia. The way United States President Joe Biden was talking about Russia warning Russia giving threats. It seems in Ukraine it was creating panic in the Ukrainian financial market because it is straightforward. If the Russia Ukraine crisis escalates, then gas prices in Europe will increase and all those industries in Europe which are dependent on Russian gas, the cost of expenditure will increase and that is going to soon affect the European financial market. All foreign investors will withdraw from European market. The European economy is going to be badly hit. Why do you think Germany, Croatia, France are staying out of this crisis? They are not keen in escalating this issue as much as the United States is doing the US and some EU nations have sent military support to Ukraine. Germany has offered only medical aid and if you remember, Germany Navy chief resigned because he praised the Russian President and said Vladimir Putin deserves respect. Why did he say that? Why is Germany not participating actively against Russia? Because Germany is aware of how this crisis is going to affect the European financial market. They don't want to pick up a fight with Russia, and even Germany's economy in the form of energy

sector is linked with the Russian gas pipeline, which is why Germany is adopting a softer approach. And by the way, Germany's Navy chief resigned because he made a controversial remark on the crisis in Ukraine. He said if Russia wanted to invade Ukraine, it would have done it long back and then he also added that Vladimir Putin deserves respect for this comment. He lost his job, but anyhow there is some truth in his statement. If Russia wanted to invade the eastern region of Ukraine. It would have done it long back for eight years Russia held on to this region. Why? Simply? Because Russia does not want the United States and European Union's involvement in Ukraine. That is why you will see that only the United States is talking too much. No other country is talking as much as the United States. If the United States decides to put sanctions on Russia, that is really going to test the ability of the Western powers to use sanctions against Russian power. the United States is just creating a narrative by creating a hype that Russia will. Invade Ukraine, you know they want to look good in front of the world. They want to say that we will save you from Russia in the name of human rights. Democracy, women rights. Can you imagine that the US used women's rights to help justify the invasion of Afghanistan? Can you imagine that? How bizarre is that? United States has gone completely woke in recent years. If Russia had to invade Ukraine, it would have done it long back. A good example is the Crimean peninsula. If the United States decides to put sanctions on Russia because of a hyped issue. Since they have nothing else to do, then Europe has to face the consequences of those sanctions. There will be a huge economic crisis in Europe and not just Europe. It will spill over everywhere in the world. If you analyze the situation very closely, you will realize that only the United States is more interested in this conflict. None of its allies are showing that much of interest. First of all, they don't have the appetite to do anything stupid because it's going to be bad for the economy and mind you, even Chinese, are watching closely. That is why the Ukrainian President has also told United States President to calm down. And don't create a hype.

Your hype is creating panic. So what does that tell us? It is very simple. The Russia and Ukraine crisis is simply a border dispute where Russia does not want the United States or European Union's influence on Ukraine. As simple as that. That is why even India has taken the side of Russia at the UNSC discussion. It's all about saying no to the United States old, dirty tactics. So this was everything that you had to know about the Russia Ukraine crisis. I hope you found this article informative. Thank you for reading it. Please follow me on vocal+