Poland's Difficult Offer: Fighter Jets for Ukraine, but Only Through the Hands of the United States

President Biden's pledge to keep the US out of direct battle with Russian forces was put to the test this week when Poland stunned American officials by volunteering to hand over its collection of aged Russian-made MIG aircraft to Ukraine for eventual transfer.

However, there was one snag: Poland refused to hand over the MIGs to Ukraine immediately. The agreement would only be implemented if the US and NATO handled the transfer and then replaced Poland's force with American-made fighter jets. The United States, caught off guard by the demand, began to dissect the situation. Fearing Russia's wrath, and possibly an attack on the air base from where the MIGs launched, Polish leaders delegated the dilemma of becoming a "co-combatant" in the conflict to Washington and its NATO partners.

On Tuesday night, the Pentagon essentially dismissed the notion, claiming that the US had not been contacted. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III threw a stake through the whole scheme late Wednesday, telling his Polish counterpart over the phone that the proposed MIG transfer was a dead letter, according to Pentagon officials.

"The transfer of combat aircraft might be misinterpreted as an escalation," Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby told reporters.

The back-and-forth was a reminder that the combined effort to punish and ultimately expel Russia has a third rail that no one wants to touch, even in the midst of a strikingly united alliance. Ukraine's partners will deliver 17,000 anti-tank weaponry in six days, as well as cyberweapons training against Russian targets. They will not, however, risk a dogfight over Ukraine's skies, which, in the opinion of many, will inevitably drag them into the conflict.

That distinction was underscored on Wednesday, when Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, who had initially appeared receptive to the idea of Poland transferring fighter jets to Ukraine, said the idea of flying MIG-29 fighter jets to a US air base in Germany for transfer to Ukraine lacked a clear "substantive rationale."

"The potential of US government fighter jets departing from a US NATO base in Germany to fly into contested airspace with Russia over Ukraine raises major concerns for the whole NATO alliance," Mr. Blinken said at a press conference in Washington.

Mr. Blinken then went on to say, "Our goal is to end the conflict, not to expand it — even perhaps expanding it to NATO territory."

When given anonymity, administration officials admitted that there was a lot of political pressure on them to reach an agreement to place Ukrainian pilots in the cockpit. While Russia's air force has struggled so far, Ukraine's ability to compete in the skies with its current fleet is limited — and likely to dwindle as Russia deploys its sophisticated air defences.

As a result, when the US rejected the idea, Republicans jumped – the first time a political split on strategy had occurred.

Senator Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska and a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a statement that President Biden should explain why he vetoed combat jets for Ukraine.

He said that the US was providing Ukraine with "Javelins and Stingers from NATO territory," a reference to antitank and antiaircraft weapons. "So, why does President Biden believe that Ukrainian MIGs, piloted by Ukrainians, would be shot down over NATO territory while attempting to defend Ukrainian airspace?"

Other Republicans made similar statements.

The distinction between supplying ammo and sending weapons is, in truth, a hazy one. While there may be legal concerns, administration officials made it clear that sending the planes would be seen as an escalatory step by Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.

The problem began approximately ten days earlier, when Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union's senior foreign policy and security officer, said at a press conference that E.U. members would deploy "fighting jets." We’re not talking about just ammunition. We're supplying more vital weapons for a war."

He later backtracked, saying that countries would determine what to do on their own. The concept gained traction in Congress. Many people looked to Poland as one of three countries that could produce MIG fighters, which are three decades old and not up to modern standards by definition. (The Ukrainians want these planes because they know how to fly them; their air force is made up of vintage MIGs from the Soviet era.)

But then Poland began to think about the Russian threats to attack any country that let Ukrainian jets to lift off from its airfields to battle Russian soldiers.

As a result, Poland stated that it wished to transfer the planes over to the US base in Ramstein, Germany, thereby turning it into a used-plane lot for Cold War planes. They claimed it was up to the Americans to repair them and hand them over to Ukraine.

Given Russia's growing anti-air capabilities in Ukraine, American officials feel the jets would be of limited utility to Ukraine and are not worth the hazards they would pose to more effective ways of supporting the Ukrainian military. As a result of the move, Russia may step up its efforts to disrupt supply convoys transporting armaments from allies.

The mistake appeared to have started with a miscommunication, according to Daniel Fried, a former senior State Department official and former US ambassador to Poland.

"It appears to be a shambles." I believe there was a sequence of miscommunication that resulted in the Poles receiving mixed signals."

He said, "Borrell began it." "Then the United States failed to be explicit with Poles and unwittingly sent confusing signals," Mr. Blinken said, referring to his early, seeming openness to the concept.

"The administration does not need to explain why the MIGs are a terrible idea," Mr. Fried concluded. They must explain what they would do to assist the Ukrainians in achieving their goals with the MIGs."