Is It Apocalypse Now As We Hang On The Edge Of WWIII

Are we living in history? It certainly feels that way to me, and I imagine many people my parent's age or older. While growing up, my generation heard all about the evils of communism from our parents and grandparents. Myself, I lived through the fall of communism and the Berlin wall coming down. The cold war was over and communism, as it was known, failed. Now, we sit on the precibus of war in Eastern Europe. The world has two big questions in front of them. What will U.S. President Joe Biden do? What will Russian President Putin do?

Ukraine

Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. As the second-largest country in the region by area, after Russia, Ukraine borders Russia on the east and north-east. Ukraine has a coastal area, borders Belarus to the north, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to the west, Romania, and Moldova to the south. Ukraine became an independent, sovereign nation, in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

After declaring its independence, Ukraine declared itself a neutral state. Ukraine shared a limited military partnership with Russia and other countries while forming a partnership with NATO in 1994. In 2013, under the leadership of President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine suspended its agreement with Europe. The intention was to seek closer economic ties with Russia.

Several months of demonstrations and protests began, escalating into a revolution that led to the overthrow of Yanukovych and the birth of a new government. Events leading up to Yanukovych’s overthrow formed the background that lead to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. In 2016, Ukraine applied for the component of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade with the EU.

Ukraine is a developing nation that ranks 74th on the Human Development Index. Ukraine has the distinction of being the poorest country in Europe, being wrought with high poverty and corruption. Because of its extensive and fertile farmlands, the country is one of the largest grain exporters in the world. Ukraine also has the third-largest military in Europe, behind Russia and France.

We’ve all seen pictures of what’s going on in Eastern Europe along the Ukraine Border. Russia has amassed, according to U.S. intelligence, 130,000 troops along the Ukraine border. When considering that the border between the two nations is 1,282 miles long, this breaks down to a force of 1,000 plus troops per mile of the border.

What is the interest in Ukraine with regards to the potential invasion by Russia?

Putin’s Motivation

Putin has publically suggested that his actions are driven by personal conviction as well as politics. It’s well known that he is eligible to run for up to two more six-year terms once his current mandate is up in 2024. In December of 2021, he was interviewed and admitted that he mourned the collapse of the Soviet Union as the demise of “historical Russia”. Putin voiced his belief that what was “built up over 1,000 years was largely lost”. It’s those types of statements that lead analysts to believe Putin sees Ukraine as unfinished business. Putin may well intend to follow the seizure of Crimea, which boosted his popularity in Russia, by bringing part or all of Ukraine back under the control of Moscow.

U.S. Response By Biden Administration

Nations are pulling their personnel out of the area as President Joe Biden explores options with his allies. Other countries have followed suit, pulling people out of Ukraine and issuing staunch warnings that an invasion by Russia could occur any day.

Putin, jostling for power in a post-Cold War Europe, wants security guarantees from Biden to block Kyiv’s entry into NATO. Putin allegedly is voicing concerns about missile deployments near Russia’s borders.

The Biden administration is regarding many of Putin’s proposals as “non-starters” but has pushed the Kremlin to discuss them with Washington and its European allies.

The Biden administration has shipped multiple large shipments of weapons to Ukraine. First, close to 200,000 pounds of “lethal aid” arrived for front-line defenders of Ukraine. The second shipment of more than 80 tons of weapons arrived that included Javelins, Stinger Missles, and other various weapons and ordinances to bolster the Ukraine defense.

NATO has sent troops into the region, accompanied by at least 3,000 US soldiers that have been deployed to Eastern Europe to aid in defending Ukraine in the event of a conflict in the region.

The Cost Of Aggressive Action

While the world sits anxiously awaiting the outcome of the standoff that is occurring on the border of Ukraine, the question of what will the rest of the world do weighs heavily. The United States and President Biden have promised swift and decisive actions should Russia commit an act of aggression against Ukraine.

As it stands, even after an hour-long discussion with President Biden, President Putin has not agreed to back away from Ukraine. President Biden has warned Putin the cost of aggression would include sanctions against Russia. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which Biden lifted sanctions on, has been threatened by Biden in recent weeks.

“If Russia invades, that means troops or tanks crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will be no Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

— President Joe Biden

Besides the cost the loss of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Europe would bring to the Russian economy, the sanctions that would be levied against Putin and Russia by the United Nations and NATO Allies, there’s an additional and unfortunate cost that will be paid if things turn to aggression.

For the 20 years ending in September of 2021, the world watched a war that waged on, and on, and on, in Afghanistan. Thousands of innocents died. American soldiers and allied soldiers died in the war against terrorism. The destruction of war is something only those that see it first hand can fully understand but equals suffering, human suffering.

My Final Thoughts

While Joe Biden promises swift and decisive action in Ukraine if there is an invasion, which we’re being led to believe is imminent, it remains to be seen what that swift and decisive action will be. From the perspective of an American, we’ve seen a botched withdrawal in Afghanistan that our president simply said, when asked about the military report, that he “rejects” their findings. Now, we are getting into the middle of what even the president and other heads of state have referred to as a potential world war.

World War 3! Wrapping my head around that reality isn’t something I ever imagined I would be doing. After four years of not getting into any more global conflicts, we’re now embroiled in something half a world away. Should Joe Biden be pouring so much support into Ukraine? Many will question his actions. We all know the Biden family has ties to Ukraine, so maybe he feels a connection with their people and their government. Back home, we’ll still be facing a record federal deficit, the highest inflation in 40 years, energy prices that are showing no decline after skyrocketing, and issues in the supply chains. To many, they’ll feel like Biden hasn’t done enough as president to help his own country and wonder why he’s so eagerly committing billions and support to Ukraine in such tumultuous times in the United States.

Does it feel like we’re living in the past to anyone else, or is it simply deja vu?