Aftermath of Raisi's Death.

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the death of the Foreign Minister must have shaken the Iranian nation to its core. Despite the current Ayatollah telling people not to worry society would carry on. One wonders if the elderly Ayatollah was saying that more for himself than the people of Iran. The regime is stable but has faced demonstrations over women's rights and other factors. Iran cracked down hard on demonstrators but the anti-Islamic movement has not gone away. Opponents of the regime have been openly saying they are glad Raisi is gone.

Raisi had just met the Leader of Azerbaijan with the Iranian Foreign Minister and aids. The President's helicopter was then touring the north of Iran when it crashed in mountainous regions. The Iranian Red Crescent and others searched high and low for the downed helicopter. Other nations like Turkey and Saudi Arabia offered their help. Iran even reached out to the EU asking them to use their satellite to locate the President's helicopter.

The wreckage of the helicopter was found but the President and all onboard were dead. There will be a three-day funeral for the President complete with mourners, religious speeches, military honours, etc. Mohammed Mokhbar the Vice President has been appointed by the Ayatollah to run things for 50 days. After that, there will be a new presidential election. People will have the chance to vote for a new president from an array of candidates. Whether Mr. Mokhbar will stand as a candidate remains to be seen. The candidates have to be screened to make sure they are in line with the Islamic constitution. Liberal candidates or reformist candidates will not be chosen. Hardline candidates will be chosen and so for the people, it will be a choice of hardline vs hardline.

Iran is a kind of democracy but on the other hand, the Ayatollah and the Guardians Council select who can and cannot run for President. So, although people can vote for President the regime dictates who can and who cannot run. Iran right now is more hardline and allowing more liberal, reform-minded candidates would not be what the hardliners want. Whatever President replaces Raisi they will not be able to do much without the say-so of the so-called 'Supreme Leader' Ayatollah Khamenei.

Raisi had a legal and clerical background. He was close to the current Ayatollah and played a prominent role in the Iranian revolution. Mr. Raisi earned a reputation as being 'The Butcher of Tehran'. Executing enemies of the regime left, right, and centre. There will genuinely be people who will mourn over Raisi and they will be ardent supporters of the regime in their thousands. At the state funeral, these mourners will be shown in their thousands to emphasize to the world that the regime is still massively supported. The funeral will be carefully stage-managed to show how Iran is upset over the loss of Mr. Raisi. What won't be shown and will be clamped down on will be people who hate Raisi and everything he stands for.

Many must have thought as no doubt some did in Iran, that Israel was behind the death of the President. Israel has a reputation for assassinating top Iranian political figures, military people, scientists, etc. Whether Israel or some other foreign enemy was involved in the death cannot be said.

However, air accidents happen all the time and mechanical vehicles like helicopters are not foolproof. Iran has been under sanctions since 1979 and has struggled to keep its American-supplied aircraft in the air. Iran has overcome this by importing parts for aircraft illegally or copying the parts themselves. Iran has managed to keep its ageing fleet of F-14 Tomcat fighters (US-supplied) airworthy. Even upgrading them with modern electronic equipment such as radars and weapons systems. Nevertheless, sanctions and maintaining its old fleet of aircraft must come at a cost. The Belle helicopter that Raisi was travelling around in may not have been serviced properly or working with old parts. So, the American-supplied Belle helicopter crashed. However, this is just guesswork no one will know why the helicopter came down. Of course, in mountainous regions, there is bad weather and visibility can be a problem. Ultimately, that could be another reason why the helicopter crashed.

Of course, the death of Raisi will cause shockwaves in Iran and beyond. However, short of a downfall of the Iranian regime, the Ayatollah is correct in asserting that life in the Islamic Republic will continue as before.

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