AN EXPERT IN ANYTHING

I do think there's a good a good

framework for thinking is physics you

know the sort of first principles

reasoning um what I mean by that is boil

things down to the the fundamental

truths and reason up from there as

opposed to reasoning by analogy

um through most of our life we we get

through life by reasoning by analogy

which essentially means kind of coughing

what other people do with slight

variations and you have to do that

otherwise it's it's mentally you

wouldn't be able to get through the day

um but when you when you want to do

something new you you have to you have

to apply the the physics approach

um give me an example that like what's

one thing that you've done that on that

you feels work for you sure so

um somebody could say

um in fact people do uh that battery

packs are really expensive and that's

just the way they'll always be because

that's the way they've been in the past

um you're like well

no that's that's pretty dumb and you say

no okay what what are the batteries made

of so first principles would be say okay

what are the material constituents of

the batteries what is the spot market

value of the material constituents so

you can say okay it's got Cobalt nickel

aluminum carbon

um and some pollinates for separation

and a steel can so break that down in on

a material basis and say okay what if we

bought that in London Metal Exchange

what would each of those things cost

like oh geez uh it's like 80

per kilowatt hour so clearly you just

need to think of clever ways to take

those materials and combine them into

the shape of a battery cell

and you can have batteries that are much

much cheaper than anyone realizes

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Rockets were super expensive and the

cost cost per 100 kilogram to orbit had

actually gone up over the years not down

so

um after my second or third trip back

from Russia I was like whoa

there's got to be a way to build Rockets

um

there's got to be a way to solve this

rocket problem I started reading a lot

of books and Rockets and a bit about

sort of a first principles analysis of

of a rocket just broke down the

materials that are in a rocket what

would it cost to buy those materials

what versus the price of the rocket and

there's a gigantic difference between

the raw material cost of the rocket and

the Finish cost the rocket so there must

be something

wrong happening in in going from the

constituent atoms to the final shape

and I found that certainly to be true

and then

um you know just in general critical

thinking is is good you know examining

whether you have the correct axioms or

the most applicable axioms uh does the

logic necessarily connect

um and then what are the what are the

range of probable outcomes outcomes are

usually not deterministic they're

they're they're a range and so you want

to figure out what those probabilities

are and make sure ideally that you're

the house

you know it's fine to take it's fine

it's fine to gamble as long as you're