UK Employment – Green Shoots As White-Collar Vacancies Rise Again

After a record low of 343,000 vacancies in April to June 2020 there has been an estimated record quarterly increase of 144,000 to 488,000 vacancies in July to September 2020; vacancies remain below the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels and are 332,000 (40.5%) less than a year ago.

The quarterly growth in vacancies is being driven by businesses with fewer than 50 employees, with an estimated increase of 55,000 vacancies for businesses with one to nine employees and 43,000 for businesses with 10 to 49 employees.

Larger businesses with more than 2,500 employees had an estimated quarterly increase of 4,000 vacancies, however this is 137,000 (47.1%) fewer vacancies than a year ago; smaller businesses with one to nine employees have seen a stronger recovery with only 20,000 (16.6%) fewer vacancies than a year ago.

The "arts, entertainment and recreation" sector has struggled the most during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with estimated vacancies 78.2% lower in the latest quarter compared with January to March 2020; this was mainly driven by a large quarterly fall of 90.7% in vacancies from January to March 2020 to April to June 2020 and a small recovery in July to September 2020.

Whilst "construction" was one of the sectors to see a large quarterly fall in vacancies at the start of the pandemic in April to June 2020 (71.7%), it has recovered well in the latest quarter, with estimated vacancies 18.2% lower than January to March 2020.

In July to September 2020, the "public admin and defence; compulsory social security" sector is closest to its vacancy levels in January to March 2020, with an estimated 11.4% fewer vacancies; this is mainly as a result of the sector seeing one of the lowest falls (26.8%) in vacancies between January to March 2020 and April to June 2020.

The estimated number of jobs had been generally increasing since 2013, but fell by 354,000 to 35.41 million jobs in the UK from March to June 2020; this was the largest fall since September 1992.

Permanent and contract vacancies increased 17% month-on-month in September

- Daily tracking reveals optimism for October with permanent vacancies up 25% in the second half of the month and interviews up 20%

- Year-on-year data reveals the percentage drop in annual hiring levels is closing

Hiring in the UK is beginning to show significant green shoots with an uptick in month-on-month vacancy and placement numbers in September, while the percentage drop in year-on-year figures continues to recover despite ongoing economic uncertainty. That's according to the latest monthly Recruitment Trends Snapshot report from The Association of Professional Staffing Companies (APSCo).

Percentage drop in year on year hiring closing

The data, provided by growth analytics platform, cube19, revealed a rise in month-on-month hiring in September, following a seasonal blip in August. Permanent and contract vacancies both saw a 17% increase, while placements rose 27% for permanent and 13% for contract.

Year-on-year figures showed the most promising signs that hiring levels in professional sectors were recovering from the initial impact of the pandemic. While vacances and placements were down annually, the overall percentage drop has continued to fall. September year on year figures showed a 33% drop in permanent vacancies compared with 43% in August while the drop had halved to 15% from 30% for contract vacancies.

This improvement in yearly comparisons indicates a growing level of hiring confidence that looks set to continue as we enter Q4 on the back of the Prime Minister's 'Build Back Better' plan and the extension of wage protection and business loan schemes. The data is also in line with results of the latest Labour Market Report from the Office for National Statistics which revealed this week that vacancy numbers had seen a quarterly increase of 144,000 between July and September, while the number of people in pay-rolled employment grew by 20,000 in September.

Daily tracking indicates optimism for October

This uptick in positivity can also be seen in the daily tracking data which revealed that the numbers of new permanent vacancies added during the last two weeks of September increased 25% when compared with the first two weeks. Contract vacancies also grew 9% during this time frame.

Ann Swain, CEO of APSCo comments:

"It's highly encouraging to once again see an uptick in month-on-month vacancies and placements following the expected seasonal blip in August. September was certainly viewed as the month where we would have a clearer indication of how the UK will fare in a post-lockdown environment as schools reopened and attempts to return to business as usual continued. The fact that the gap in year-on-year vacancies and placement continues to close indicates we are slowly but surely moving in the right direction."

oe McGuire Global Sales Director at cube 19 comments:

"We're pleased to see the recovery continuing in September and the strong double digit increases across most of the key metrics is encouraging. Remote hiring and onboarding has been widely adopted and this is no doubt impacting the rate of recovery."