Analysis GeoPolitics 2023

Each right uh let's shift motifs now uh on commodity that will probably be on the minds of leaders across the globe the biggest pitfalls our world is facing in 2023. we are participating a new list from the Eurasia group the political threat exploration and consulting establishment so at number three what they call Munitions of Mass dislocation that's technology like artificial intelligence that can undermine trust and republic at number two maximum she they say Chinese leader she's unexampled power in his own country could lead to dangerous miscalculations and the number said and the report says the number one threat is guileful Russia how it acts major pitfalls to the United States Europe and Beyond the chairman and author of Eurasia group Ian Bremer joins us now to bandy Ian good to see you good morning so uh let's talk about this the lat in this time last time the war between Russia and Ukraine was weeks down now guileful Russia you are saying your report is saying is the number one trouble why hasn't Russia's failure in the Ukraine war lowered that trouble that it poses no the failure is adding the threat because Russia is getting the world's most important Rogue State they're lowered dramatically as a global power Putin could not indeed show up at the G20 because he was going to be insulated and embarrassed by all of these other world leaders but there is no way for him to back down um I mean it's not like he can go to the status said oh my mistake no no NATO's formerly expanded Ukraine's much stronger the Europeans have formerly cut them off in terms of gas flows you got to make those channels someplace differently it'll take a decade so any way you look at it Putin is an incredibly delicate position but he is got 6 000 news so what's he going to do if he can't continue the war in Ukraine he is going to take it someplace and decreasingly what that means is the war is going to hit NATO it's going to be asymmetric attacks like Espionage and uh like cyber attacks channel fiber Russia thinks that they have been fighting NATO for the last time NATO has said no no the war is in Ukraine decreasingly it's going to be hard to keep that in the box that has to be the top threat that we are facing this time speaking of that war in Ukraine how do you anticipate it ending yeah I wish we could anticipated ending um you know Ukraine has had the last time their GDP has has contracted by 40 Russia has only been four percent Russia's decreasingly going to see their own frugality take the kind of hit that Iran has been taking another lower guileful state in the Middle East for the last decade um what that means is that Russia doesn't have a service that is able of continuing to fight and win the war in Ukraine rather they are going to be seen by NATO as the top Danger on the global stage but that is not an end to the war right it's an expansion of the war I mean at least in 2022 we've all concentrated on zelenski The frippery of 44 million Ukrainian people right but but we have kept the war in Ukraine yeah in 2023 we are not going to be suitable to say that presently it's not a cold war with Russia it's really a hot war with Russia talking about China I mean the main tenet of Chinese governance is fastening on its internal politics and letting other companies other countries concentrate on their own Internal Affairs how do you suppose that China especially under Xi Jinping will will be a threat to the global geopolitical geography if it says that it's really wants to kind of do its own thing and let other countries do theirs the funny thing is the China threat is a little bit like the Russia threat in the sense that it centers on bone

joe that has extraordinary quantities of power didn't used to be true in China doesn't have checks and balances is not getting great moxie the way he used to that allows him to make big miscalculations we've formerly seen it by Yes Men because he's girdled by yes men and because he's capricious in the opinions that he makes zero covid which was the palm for China for the last two times suddenly it's gone and as a consequence China is like it was in 2020 formerly again the center of global covet with no translucency with the rest of the world about any new variants that are coming and how numerous cases they've and how numerous people are dying well what happens if those feathers of Health opinions get replicated in profitable opinions inside China National Security citizens inside China the reason Russia is similar a threat is because Putin made the single biggest misstep of any leader on the global stage since the Wall came down in 1989. that's the kind of leadership we're decreasingly seeing in China moment but a lot more important China than it was back by Mao days which the last time you saw latterly there was that power so Ian let me ask you snappily before we go number seven you have a dividedU.S you anticipate polarization in the United States to grow this time and you call the United States one of the world's most dysfunctional republic what are the geopolitical pitfalls of A Dysfunctional republic that's the United States in your words thankfully they're lower than a lot of people suppose this is a Do not fear threat the fact that the United States is at the bottom of the list indeed though we are the most important country in the world really tells you that indeed when you have leaders that make big miscalculations those miscalculations are constrained people stop them from passing whether it's the military or Judiciary or rule of law translucency all of those effects the pitfalls that are really at the top of this report this time growing tyrants and Tech Bros by the way decreasingly there is some imbrication in those two orders those are the places where you get have effects That Go Bump in the night and they affect all of us when we wake up Ian Bremer thank you so much it's not just your knowledge it's your passion as well we appreciate you good to see you