Unraveling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Decades of Discord and a Fraught Ceasefire

On September 27th, explosions rocked Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region nestled between Armenia and Azerbaijan, reigniting a longstanding and bitter dispute that has simmered for nearly 30 years. Officially recognized as part of Azerbaijan but occupied by Armenia following a brutal war, Nagorno-Karabakh has been a flashpoint in the South Caucasus, marred by territorial claims and ethnic tensions. While occasional skirmishes had erupted over the years, the events of 2020 took a different, and more devastating turn.

The origins of this conflict can be traced back to the late 19th century when the Russian Empire ruled the region. However, it was in the twilight of the Soviet Union's existence, during the late 1980s, that the situation began to unravel. The policy of "glasnost," which aimed to grant greater political freedoms, inadvertently stoked long-standing ethnic tensions. In 1988, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum to secede from the Azerbaijani republic, igniting a violent and protracted conflict.

As the Soviet Union disintegrated, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence, escalating the dispute into a full-fledged war. Over the course of three years, approximately 20,000 lives were lost, and more than a million people were displaced from their homes.

A ceasefire was finally brokered in 1994, freezing the conflict but leaving underlying tensions unresolved. Nagorno-Karabakh remained under Armenian occupation, though it was still internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. The situation worsened when Russia, traditionally a mediator, favored Azerbaijan due to its strategic interests in the region.

Both countries maintained a military presence along the front lines, leading to occasional skirmishes. In 2016, a four-day war erupted, dispelling any notion that the conflict was truly "frozen." The region remained a tinderbox waiting to ignite.

The smoldering tensions flared into a full-scale war in 2020 when Turkey intervened on the side of Azerbaijan. Turkey's involvement was part of its broader strategy to assert its influence in the region, which included military interventions in Syria and Libya. Turkey's military and diplomatic support, along with the supply of advanced weaponry, bolstered Azerbaijan's position.

The war saw Azerbaijan making significant territorial gains, capturing strategic cities and key regions. By November 8th, Azerbaijan had secured a major victory by capturing the historic city of Shusha, just 15 kilometers from the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. Facing mounting pressure, Armenia agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Russia.

The ceasefire agreement, signed on November 9th, marked a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Azerbaijan retained control of territories it had captured during the war and took over additional regions from Armenia. This reconfiguration of control brought an end to the decades-long Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Russian peacekeepers were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh, a move that solidified Russia's influence in the region. Additionally, the agreement allowed Turkey to play a more significant role by constructing a road, providing access to Azerbaijan, and sending its own peacekeeping troops to the area.

The announcement of the ceasefire agreement triggered a political crisis in Armenia, with protests and calls for the removal of the prime minister. In Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians who had newly come under Azerbaijani control faced an uncertain future, with many forced to abandon their homes.

While the ceasefire agreement has brought temporary stability, it has not resolved the underlying hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The region remains fraught with tension, and the potential for renewed conflict looms large. The deal serves as a precarious truce rather than a lasting peace, and the path to a comprehensive resolution remains uncertain.

Nagorno-Karabakh remains a contentious and deeply divided region, where the scars of a violent history continue to shape the lives of its people. Until a sustainable and lasting solution is reached, the specter of renewed conflict will continue to cast a shadow over this troubled land.