My predictions for Eurovision Song Contest 2023 (pre-show).

Another year, another Eurovision! We finally have all the 37 entries from each participating country, so it's obviously time for opinions no one asked for.

After hearing all the songs and some live performances, I have made up my mind and, in this article, I will share with you what I expect from this year's Eurovision.

1. The first semi-final is going to be a bloodbath.

Contrarily to last year, I think this year's most competitive semi-final will be the first. The reason is quite obvious: three out of the four countries with the highest ranking in the odds - namely, Sweden, Finland, and Norway - will perform in this semi-final and will likely be in the top 3.

Loreen - who will represent Sweden again after winning in 2012 - performed in the exact same running order as 2012 and has already managed to get to the Grand Final. She is also a good performer, so I believe that something absolutely disastrous has to happen to her performance in order for her not to get through again, and it might not even be enough to throw her out of the top 10 completely. Indeed, this year the jury has no say on the results of the semi-finals, so I think her fans would be quite tolerant if, by any chance, her vocals happened to be not as good as usual, and they would vote for her anyway.

Finland has a good running order, its representer Käärijä managed to deliver a groundbreaking performance at the national final and it is also believed to be a televote winner in the Grand Final.

Norway's song "Queen of the kings" by Alessandra Mele has been first in many Eurovision fan rankings before Loreen's and Käärijä's songs were released. Alessandra is able to deliver a well-rounded performance, and the song managed to top the rankings of many streaming platforms, so - quite like Loreen - I believe she could also rely on her relatively new fanbase for votes shall something go wrong with her performance.

With this in mind, the situation gets really unpredictable for other countries that do not have such high odds. Many of them have strong qualities, but most of them also have specific weaknesses that could outweigh their perceived advantage. Let's see some examples.

The first country in this situation is Moldova, which is in my top 10 this year. The song in itself is catchy and unique, it has a rich cultural background and the flute, which is reminiscent of other Eurovision hits like Shum and Stefania, adds a layer of potential virality. Moreover, Pasha Parfeny is absolutely capable of performing it in a very lively way without any issues with his vocals.

The problem here is the running order: he is performing right before Loreen (Sweden) and right after Noa Kirel (Israel), so there is a high chance that he will be outperformed by them, since they are rumored to have very big props and a grandiose staging, like the youtuber ESC Tom pointed out.

Ireland, on the other hand, has been given a good slot, but the song is not well liked, so their chances are still slim.

Serbia and Portugal have quite memorable entries and good performances, but a terrible running order that might hinder their chances to qualify. Croatia is the opposite: always ranking low among the fans, but with a good running order and a remarkable performance.

Generally speaking, the quality of the performances - both in terms of props and vocals - and the running order will play a major role in deciding the other seven qualifiers in this semi-final.

2. Germany will not get last place.

Finally, Germany managed to send an entry that is memorable and that I genuinely liked! As soon as I saw the running order for Unser Lied für Liverpool I have wished with every fiber of my body that "Blood and Glitter" would win, and I even voted for it in the international televote.

Personally, it is in my top 3 of this year, randomly rotating from first, to second, to third place according to my mood, but I have seen that it is not always the case for other Eurovision fans, so I would not say that it will certainly win.

However, compared to the fan rankings of last year, Germany's overall ranking has improved dramatically, as most people now place the song in their top 15-20 at least. Lord of the Lost also delivered an outstanding performance in their national final and the frontman Chris Harms has proven to be capable of effortlessly switching from his natural voice to a growl, so they will definitely snatch some twelve points and move out from the last place.

3. Georgia will qualify again after five years.

I have been an Eurovision fan since 2018, so I have never seen Georgia qualifying so far, although I think some of their entries were quite underrated, like Lock Me In (2022) and Keep on Going (2019).

Therefore, this year I was glad to have a "Finally!" moment about Georgia, and seeing other Eurovision fans having it as well really made me (and half of the Internet) think that Georgia could qualify.

This year, Georgia also has some technicalities on its side, which are all tied to the representer Iru. Iru is not only capable of carrying the entire song live, as she amazingly proved in the PreParty in Barcelona, but she has already managed to win Junior Eurovision as well, in 2011.

There are still some things that make me confused, though. While there are many fans who are persuaded that she will qualify, and I'm one of them, I have also seen people claiming that she could get the highest ranking ever for Georgia and even win this year's Eurovision Song Contest.

Now, I love the song and Iru and I wish her the best result possible because she is amazing, but people need to calm down. We are talking about a country that has not qualified in five years and that has often been underrated by basically everyone. With the odds being starkly in favor of other countries and a bad running order in the second semi-final, pushing such high expectations on Iru is honestly unfair.

Take Italy, my country, as an example: we consistedly ranked high for years without winning before finally taking the trophy in 2021 - one good entry would have probably not been enough to win. To expect a country with such a long non-qualification streak to suddenly jump to the first place is not fair, because said country will probably need more than just one good year to adjust its Eurovision game, and that's okay.

If Iru ends up winning by any chance, however, I will be more than happy for her and Georgia.

4. There will be at least one surprise qualifier and one surprise non-qualifier.

Compared to last year, I feel like this year is filled with songs that could be borderline qualifiers or non-qualifiers in both semi-finals.

In the first semi-final, there are a lot of potential borderline qualifiers and non-qualifiers because of how competitive it is. Like I mentioned earlier, the top 3 seems already predicted, so there are only seven places left, a couple of which will likely be covered by some obvious qualifiers (for different reasons, be it a unique performance or stunning vocals or whatever you want) and the other countries will end up fighting for the remaining spots.

With such a scenario in mind, it's not hard to imagine that some good entries or performances might be left out, even if they have a huge fanbase to support them.

In the second semi-final, however, the situation is quite the opposite: running order aside, it does not seem impossible for some of the least favoured countries to qualify. So, unless some performances flop tremendously, it will be difficult to predict who will qualify among the potential borderline qualifiers or non-qualifiers of this semi-final.

So, these were my predictions for this year's Eurovision Song Contest. I can't wait to see what all these artists will bring to the stage this year!

Oh, and I can't wait to see how much of a clown I have been in this article!

Do you watch Eurovision Song Contest? Have you already listened to this year's entries? If so, tell me in the comments!