What Went Wrong: Lightning's Last Stand?

Is this really the end for the Tampa Bay Lightning? If it is, it was a hell of a run for this team. To think, this all started when they got embarrassed, humiliated, and punched in the mouth by, of all teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning. We all remember that year. 62-win season, award finalists at every turn, and many experts handing them the Cup. The Blue Jackets were a Wild Card who hadn't won a playoff series in their entire history, yet not only did they defeat the Lightning, they swept them!

Of course, we all remember how the Lightning responded. The following year was paused by the pandemic, but in the bubble, the Bolts finished second in the Round Robin games, and later got their payback over the Jackets, led by a quintuple overtime thriller. They took care of the Boston Bruins, defeated the New York Islanders, and they won against the Dallas Stars in the Cup Final, taking home the Stanley Cup a year after being embarrassed. The Lightning liked this whole "winning the Cup" thing so much, that they decided to do it again in 2021. The shortened season saw the Bolts finish third in the localized Central Division, yet they would defeat the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes to represent the Central in the Stanley Cup Semifinals, which saw them defeat the Isles again, and later win a five-game Final over the Montréal Canadiens to repeat as champions.

In 2021-22, the Lightning managed to eke out another long run, needing seven games to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs, but would sweep the Panthers easily. They won the Eastern Conference Final over the New York Rangers to reach the Cup Final for the third straight year, but this time, they fell two wins short, losing in six games to the Colorado Avalanche. So the Bolts were knocked off their perch, and this is where it began. The team started to slow down quite a bit, but they would return to the playoffs as the third place team in the Atlantic Division, which saw them actually eliminated in Round 1 by the Toronto Maple Leafs.

This year was tough on the Bolts, but despite having to play without Andrei Vasilevskiy for the first several weeks, the team managed to get by and get in, but they did so as a Wild Card. They faced the Panthers for the third time in four years, but the Lightning were out of gas and it showed. When it was all said and done, the Lightning became the second team to be eliminated, as the Panthers needed only five games to oust them.

Again, this elimination could definitely be attributed to wear and tear as the result of three straight long runs. That's how hockey goes; the cost of even getting to the Final, let alone winning it, and doing it that many times? It's an immense cost, but it is worth it. However, there were other factors at play here.

A theory I have is that the Lightning wore themselves out (even more than they already were) trying to make a case for Nikita Kucherov taking the Hart Trophy this year (forget it, not with Nathan MacKinnon existing). Kucherov did win the Ross as the points leader with 144, with 100 of them being assists. Regarding the 2024 playoffs, Kucherov and Victor Hedman tied for the team lead with seven points, but while Hedman actually did score a goal (the team's last one of the overall season), Kucherov didn't--all seven points were helpers. Speaking of goals, the Lightning scored 13 of them in this year's playoffs, but five of them belonged to Steven Stamkos. A true lack of scoring depth; another factor in this early exit.

Again, I ask the question: is it over for the Lightning? A strong argument could be made that it is, but that group is still together--Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, Brayden Point, and Vasi. That's a strong group. They've been through it all together, they've had long runs together, and they've won two Stanley Cups. Because of all of that, an argument can be made that it's not quite over yet. The Lightning have a lot of time to fully rebound from this. They haven't won a playoff series since winning the 2022 Eastern Conference Final, which was their 11th straight series win at the time. The Bolts will need to remedy that fast, because if the window isn't shut now, it will be next year if they come up short again.

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