No Mercy (NFC Week 18)

Are you ready for some chaos?!

The National Football Conference's playoff picture is still insane entering the final week of the season. How crazy is it? Out of the eight NFC games being played this Sunday, only one of them has no meaning. It's true. While only half of the AFC's games are playoff relevant, seven of the NFC's games are highly important. A lot of teams are looking to get either a division title, or that last Wild Card spot. Overall, only two playoff spots are left in the NFC, but it's a stacked card for those spots.

Here's what's official in the NFC. The San Francisco 49ers are locked in as the #1 seed. As a result of this, the Niners' home game against the Los Angeles Rams is the only NFC game that is basically meaningless. The Niners are the only team locked into a position, but we do know other things. Whoever finishes as the NFC East runner up will be #5. Whoever wins the NFC South will be #4. Speaking of:

This is want I wanted for the NFC South last year: a bad division coming down to the wire in the final week. We didn't get that last year, because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wrapped it up on the penultimate week. We have the New Orleans Saints to thank for this, as they beat the Bucs to keep them from clinching. As a result, we have a three-team showdown for the division, and yes, it's three teams. Even the Atlanta Falcons, who are 7-9 after their loss to the Chicago Bears, can still win the South.

So here's the scenario. The Bucs will be in Charlotte against the two-win Carolina Panthers. The Falcons and Saints face each other in New Orleans. Both NFC South games are in Sunday's early window. Tampa Bay still controls their own destiny for the division: a win will lock up their second straight South title. Ties in both NFC South games will do it as well. If the Bucs do tie, they can still get the last Wild Card spot with a Seahawks loss and a Packers loss or tie. If the Bucs lose, they are eliminated, and whoever wins Falcons/Saints clinches the South. If the Bucs lose and Falcons/Saints ends tied, the Saints clinch the South. The Saints can nab that Wild Card spot with a win and the Seahawks and Packers both failing to win, but if they tie, the Seahawks and Packers both have to lose.

While the Bucs and Saints have the Wild Card spot as a Plan B, the Falcons do not. The division is their only route to the postseason, and they need a win and a Tampa Bay loss to get it done. A Bucs win or tie ends Atlanta's season. So Tampa Bay can win it at 9-8 or 8-8-1, New Orleans can win it at 9-8 or 8-8-1, and Atlanta can win it via tiebreaker at 8-9. Beautiful! Oh, and I know what you're thinking. Easy win for Tampa, right? Not so fast, my friend. This is the final week of the season. Anything can happen. Remember two years ago when the Colts were eliminated because they lost to a two-win Jags team? That's one of many instances of "Any given Sunday" hitting the final week.

The NFC East is still up for grabs thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles' shocking home loss to the Arizona Cardinals, coming after the Dallas Cowboys won over the Detroit Lions. Entering the final week, Dallas is in first place via conference record over Philly, so it's the Cowboys who control their own destiny. The Cowboys face the Washington Commanders, while the Eagles face the New York Giants. Both NFC East games are in Sunday's late window. It's simple for Dallas: win and the East is theirs. A tie and a Philly tie also gets it done, or an Eagles loss will do the same. Philly needs to win and Dallas needs to lose or tie to win the East. If they tie, Dallas has to lose. Philly has won one game since starting 10-1, drawing comparisons to the 2020 Steelers, who started 11-0 and fell off. The NFC East winner will lock up the #2 position in the NFC, though they could fall to #3 if certain things happen. The runner-up will be #5 and face whoever wins the NFC South.

And now, for the real fun:

I spent the last hours of 2023 grinning from ear-to-ear. Here it is, the first day of 2024, and the smile is still there. Week 17 ended with the Green Bay Packers trouncing the Minnesota Vikings on primetime, and thanks to the Falcons and Seahawks losses, the Packers actually moved above the playoff line with only the final week remaining. Nobody thought we had a chance. Even my fellow Packers fans were needlessly burying Jordan Love every chance they got. As a song I've heard on Jabberjaw often goes, "You gotta believe in Love."

Here we are, above ground, earning the right to control our own destiny. What do we have to do to get in the playoffs? In the immortal words of the late, great Al Davis: "Just win, baby." All of the remaining games in the NFC Wild Card storyline are in Sunday's late window, and that includes the Packers hosting the Chicago Bears, who were eliminated last week, but won the #1 pick in the draft for the second straight year. There are five other ways we can get in that either include a tie or backing in, but that's not our focus. Our focus is in one three-letter word: win.

The Seahawks' loss to the Steelers came at the wrong time for them. They actually had the chance to clinch a spot, though they would have needed Packers/Vikings to end tied. Even so, Seattle would have entered this finale controlling their own destiny. That opportunity is gone now. Though the Hawks are alive in the race, they'll need Chicago's help. A win and a Packers loss or tie puts them in. If they tie, they need the Packers and either the Bucs or Saints to lose. The Seahawks can actually reach the playoffs for the second straight year after trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos, and regarding this week, they face the Arizona Cardinals. That's easier said than done, though. The Cardinals have given the Hawks fits for a number of years now (I still remember that crazy 6-6 tie in 2016), plus the game is in Arizona, so there's that.

Last, but not least, we have the Minnesota Vikings. Oh boy. The Vikings have definitely been victims of circumstances this season. Justin Jefferson missed some time via injury; he's back now, but you know who's not back? Kirk Cousins. Cousins suffered a season ending injury in Lambeau many weeks ago, and prior to Week 17, it was announced that TJ Hockenson would be out for the year. The Vikings did managed to stay just a bit above ground for a while, but losses to the Bengals and Lions pushed them behind the playoff line, and this loss to the Packers really screwed things up for Minnesota. The Vikings enter this final week with only a 3% chance at reaching the playoffs. They need a win and losses from the Seahawks, Packers, and either the Bucs or Saints. That's the only way they get in. If the Seahawks or Packers win or tie, the Vikings are out. If the Bucs and Saints both win or tie, the Vikings are out. And while the Hawks, Saints, and Bucs all have "lose and out" scenarios, the Vikings are one of two NFC teams who can also be eliminated with a tie (the Falcons are the other team).

And there you have it. The stage is set for what should be a spectacular final week. I am very excited for Week 18, every bit of it. However, my main focus will be on Sunday's late window, which will feature the Packers attempting to get in to the playoffs. Here's to what should be a very epic finale!