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The Universe and the Rules of Trading

Determinism or randomism

By 青木Published 2 months ago 4 min read
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Have you ever thought about whether the universe operates according to rules? If there is a rule, what is the essential logic of this rule?

If you haven't thought about it, have you ever thought about whether there are rules for the operation of the trading market? If there are rules, what is the essential logic of trading rules? What if we can rely on rules to formulate plans to achieve sustained profitability?

If there are rules for trading, should the rules for trading conform to the rules of the universe? In other words, we are in the universe, should all the rules comply with the general rules of the universe?

This is just like the trend market, small levels must adapt to large levels, and occasional deviations are just for better adaptation in the future.

There are four mainstream philosophical views on "the rules of the universe":

1. Determinism

1. Determinism believes that all events in the universe are determined by established causal relationships, that is, the development of the universe is deterministic.

2. Determinism believes that if we know all the starting conditions and physical laws, we can accurately predict future development.

3. Determinism emphasizes the regularity and predictability of the universe and believes that human free will is just an illusion and that all behaviors are affected by previous cause and effect.

2. Random theory

1. Randomness theory believes that events in the universe are not completely limited by established causal relationships, and there is a certain degree of randomness and uncertainty.

2. Stochastic theory believes that in some cases, some events cannot be completely predicted, even if all starting conditions and physical laws are known.

3. Randomness makes the universe full of possibility and creativity, providing a certain space for human free will, making future development not completely predictable.

3. Theory of Spiritual Power

Psychodynamic theory believes that there is not only physical causation in the universe, but also the influence of consciousness, intention and spiritual force. It emphasizes the influence of human mind and consciousness on behavior and decision-making, and believes that human free will is driven by inner spiritual power and not only affected by external causal relationships.

4. Mixture Theory

Hybridism holds that determinism and free will are not mutually exclusive, but can coexist harmoniously. It points out that although human behavior is affected by causal relationships, it also has a certain degree of independent choice. The hybrid theory believes that free will does not mean completely free from the shackles of causality, but a rationally explainable choice made under existing conditions.

To sum up, determinism emphasizes the certainty and regularity of the universe and believes that all events are predictable; stochasticism believes that there is a certain degree of randomness and uncertainty in the universe, making future development full of possibilities; hybrid theory attempts to coordinate decisions theory and free will, while the theory of spiritual power emphasizes the role of consciousness and spiritual power in determining human behavior.

These views provide diversified perspectives for our understanding of the rules of the universe. Each philosophical view has a certain basis, but none of them can prove uniqueness.

Returning to trading, compared with the rules of the universe, which kind of trading rules do you think they belong to?

This rule is your trading philosophy. Your trading system must be built around your philosophy. Only in this way can you achieve the unity of knowledge and action. The reason why many people's trading systems don't make money is because the system is essentially contrary to philosophical ideas, so trading feels weird, and the market is obviously making money, but it is a mess, and sometimes you can't understand your own trading behavior. , and this is where the fundamental problem lies.

My logical trading method is constructed in compliance with the rules of the universe. Starting tomorrow, we will share the construction process and optimization procedures of the logical trading method with everyone in a serialized manner.

I hope the above content can trigger your new thinking about trading rules. Maybe from a different perspective, the bottleneck that has imprisoned you for many years will be broken.

Finally, let’s talk about gold. Gold quickly rose to 2141 yesterday without data, and then fell rapidly. This trend is normal in a vacuum range. It should be noted that yesterday's high did not break through the previous high of 2146, nor did it form a downward reversal signal above the 4-hour level. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index and US10Y are also synchronizing with the rise of gold. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States, although gold has experienced a violent rise for several days, it is still operating in a strong bull zone. It can only be said that the price/performance ratio of going long is not high. , you need to wait for a pullback to enter the market (protect your capital after reaching a new high, and you will never chase the high if there are no orders). However, long-term or large-space short trading strategies are absolutely not allowed. If your gold trade is profitable, then set a stop loss, lower your position, and continue to place long callback orders. If you did not participate in this wave of long orders at the beginning or did not make a profit, it is recommended to wait and see, give up on this wave of market, wait patiently for gold's adjustment, and do the next wave of market.

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