What are the reasons behind NATO’s fear of Ukraine joining the alliance?

Ukraine's Path to NATO Membership: The Obstacles and Challenges

As Russia's invasion continues, many have called for Ukraine to join NATO. However, several hurdles stand in the way of Ukraine entering the alliance. This blog examines the background of the conflict, Ukraine's progress towards NATO and EU membership, and the capabilities of Ukraine's military.

Was Ukraine's Potential NATO Membership a Catalyst for Invasion?

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, some claimed it was due to concerns over Ukraine joining NATO.

However, evidence suggests Russia's aggression resulted from imperialist ambitions, not fear of NATO. As Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin stated: "The war was needed so that a handful of scumbags could have a blast, and get PR attention showing how strong army is."

Had Ukraine been a NATO member, Russia likely wouldn't have dared an invasion. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has said that NATO membership could have deterred Russian aggression.

Does Ukraine Need NATO's Protection?

Russia's brutal invasion clearly demonstrates Ukraine needs support.

Cities like Mariupol have been razed. Schools, hospitals, dams, and power plants have been intentionally targeted. Russia has already caused massive ecological disasters, like blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam. And they may detonate mines placed at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Senators Graham and Blumenthal have warned that attacking the Zaporizhzhia plant would provoke a NATO response. Only by joining NATO can Ukraine fully protect itself from further Russian depredations.

Can Ukraine Meet NATO Admission Requirements?

For NATO membership, new countries must contribute militarily and meet democratic governance standards. However, Article 5 prevents members at war from joining, as it would immediately involve NATO in the conflict.

This Catch-22 means Ukraine can't join until after the war yet needs help during it. While not required, EU membership helps demonstrate democratic norms. Ukraine has made progress on necessary reforms, but full compliance will take years.

Does Ukraine Have a Path to EU Membership?

In June 2022, Ukraine gained EU candidate status. However, full integration may take over a decade. Croatia waited 10 years before finally joining in 2013.

Ukraine wants admission within two years, but more cautious estimates suggest 5+ years. Ongoing war also impedes Ukraine's EU hopes, though its strategic importance may accelerate integration.

EU membership would aid post-war rebuilding. But as long as conflict persists, Ukraine will likely remain a candidate.

Evaluating Ukraine's Military Capabilities

While barred from NATO now, Ukraine has proven its mettle against Russia's assaults. Billions in aid from NATO members have equipped Ukraine with advanced weaponry to counter Russia's advantages.

Ukraine now operates highly effective HIMARS rocket systems, Turkish drones, anti-aircraft missiles, and tanks captured from Russia's demoralized troops. Sinking of the Moskva cruiser and other ships has degraded Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

With sufficient training and aircraft, Ukraine's motivated forces can likely defend their nation alone. But joining NATO would guarantee support and security after repelling Russia.

Conclusion: Ukraine's Best Hope for Peace and Prosperity

Though the road is long, Ukraine has made progress towards meeting NATO and EU standards despite Russia's constant attacks. Its courageous defense has shown that with sufficient aid and training, Ukraine's military can protect its citizens.

NATO and EU membership may remain distant aspirations until Ukraine resolves the current conflict on its own terms. But after proving itself before the world, integration with Western institutions likely represents Ukraine's best future.

United with allies, Ukraine can rebuild, prosper, and deter further aggression. But Russia's imperialist ambitions will endanger the country and region until defeated decisively. For peace in Europe, Ukraine's victory over Russian invaders is an essential first step.

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Disclaimer: Some images were generated with Leonardo AI