The situation on the battlefield will change dramatically as The Russian army increases its efforts to launch a war of annihilation

In fact, the Russian military operation in eastern Ukraine has come to an end some time ago. Only a small part is still controlled by the Ukrainian army, but it has nothing to do with the overall situation in eastern Ukraine. But after taking donetsk and Luhansk overall, the pace of the Russian offensive seems to have slowed. Why?

In fact, the most important reasons are three:

One is that the Russian army objectively needs to rest, it has been fighting for months, and there is such a large area, there are some things that need to be sorted out, a good governance of the area, and prepare for the accession of these areas to Russia, there are a lot of things that need to be done.

Second, as Russia continues to wage a major war, it will take some time for logistics and supplies, and the preparation period will be very long.

Third, Putin also needs to pause for a moment to see the international reaction and make some diplomatic arrangements. After all, he is fighting a "political war". For example, Putin just visited Iran, and not only did he strike a $40 billion investment deal with Iran, but Russia, Iran and Turkey struck a deal to keep the U.S. out of Syria. That's a good layout. With the Middle East in check, Russia's special military operations in Ukraine will be even more

Then, when all this is ready, as Zhan Hao analyzed in his article a few days ago, the Russian army will certainly start a new attack, and the next step will be the southern and northern regions, such as Odessa, Kharkiv and so on. According to a report on the website of Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on July 20 that Russia's military targets in Ukraine are no longer limited to the eastern region, but also involve Areas such as Hersung and Zaporoge.

According to the report, Lavrov again stressed that the Kremlin's war goals remain the same: "de-nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine. But "the geography has changed" since talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul in March. Mr. Lavrov also said that if the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons, Russia's "geographical objectives will deviate further from the current course."

At the heart of his message was that the goal of "de-nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine remains unchanged, which in itself means that special military operations will continue until Ukraine surrenders, declares neutrality and writes it into its constitution. Of course, if that came to pass, Ukraine would be completely transformed and the United States would be pushed out, which is not going to happen now.

Lavrov's attitude is to make it clear to all parties that a new round of Russian military operations is about to begin, including targets in Odessa, Kharkiv, Hersung, Zaporoge and other regions. According to the latest news, Russian troops have just raided Odessa, killing more than 200 Ukrainian troops, this should be a very serious military strike against Odessa. For Zhan Hao (wechat public account: Zhan Hao), the strike was a signal that Russian forces were preparing to attack Odessa, or to take Odessa. And the areas that Mr. Lavrov was referring to, Like Herson and Zaporoge, are already largely controlled by The Russian army, so if you attack in those areas, you want to expand the area of control, you want to expand the gains of the Russian army in the south. It also shows that the Russian military has been mobilized and ready for major new military operations. As for Kharkiv in the north, Russian forces have been on the offensive for some time.

Almost five months into the war, the Ukrainian army is already so weakened that it should have only about a third of its fighting force left. This will put even more pressure on the Russian army. Although the United States and the West are still sending weapons to Ukraine, there are three problems:

The first is that the EU is beginning to diverge, especially as countries struggle with energy supplies and inflationary pressures. It is doubtful whether Europe can hold together. Hungary, for example, has struck a deal with Russia to supply it with more gas. Could Russia's divide-and-conquer approach destabilize Europe? It's worth watching.

Second, the Ukrainian army is losing confidence on the battlefield, which also makes Ukraine's internal crisis. Just imagine, the time and place of the meeting of the Ukrainian army command can be controlled by the Russian army, and the participants can be killed by direct precision guidance. It can be seen that the Ukrainian army has been seriously infiltrated by the Russian army, or there have been major disagreements in the course of Ukraine. Fortresses are often broken from within, so the Ukrainian army is in danger of a major collapse at any moment.

Third, the American intelligence command system to the Ukrainian military is failing. Why did the Ukrainian army fight so hard before? One of the most important reasons is that the United States has penetrated deeply into the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine was trained by the United States to a large extent. However, as the Elite Of the Ukrainian army was gradually defeated, the American control over the Ukrainian army was also declining, so the fighting ability of the Ukrainian army was inevitably weaker and weaker.

Being in a weak position on the battlefield, the strength of aid is also weakening, and the strength contrast gap between the two sides is developing towards a more wide gap. In this case, the strength of the Russian army is constantly increasing, then the speed of the Russian military operation forward will be further accelerated.

For Russia, the ability to control the tempo of the Ukrainian battlefield is greatly improved. Since this war is a "political war" and Russia's goal is to control the whole Ukraine, the tempo of the Russian army's advance must also be based on Russia's strategic goals. For now, it would be ideal for Russia to hit western Ukraine in winter, when its gas would be a weapon against Europe.

If the pace is right, Russia will have to accelerate next. An October-November victory in Kiev would be a best-case scenario for Russia. If not, it would be advantageous to fight Kiev in the winter, otherwise the delay would be another six months to a year. The real geopolitical pressure on NATO would have to be on western Ukraine.

Russia's layout of Iran, objectively, is to pressure Iran's oil not to sell to the EU, so as to constitute greater energy pressure on the EU. Russia cut deals with Iran and Turkey to try to push the US out of Syria, and in part to further reduce its ability to supply oil to the EU. In the future, Russia could even gain more control over Iraq's oil. And the goal of all this is to fight against the US-led NATO.

With such a foundation, every point Russia wins on the Ukrainian battlefield will have some effect, so the Russian military will be more active in Ukraine in the future. If Russian forces increase their presence in Ukraine, a war of annihilation against Ukrainian forces could begin.

Most people know little about the military confrontation between countries, and the war in essence is about the comprehensive national strength. The gap between the comprehensive national strength of Ukraine and that of Russia is too big, and the Russian army's advance seems not so smooth before is determined by multiple factors. The aim of the Russian army, for example, is to capture rather than to teach, which means it must advance slowly and surely. What's more, the elite Ukrainian army has been trained by the United States for many years, and is supported by American intelligence, which determines that the Ukrainian army's combat effectiveness is higher than expected. In addition to the United States and the West to Ukraine's great aid, these have decided that the War between Russia and Ukraine must be slow at the beginning. However, as Ukraine loses more and more, this gap in national power will become more and more obvious, which cannot be filled by American and Western aid, so the pace of the war will accelerate.

Then, once the Russians step up their campaign of annihilation, the situation on the battlefield will change dramatically, and it will no longer be for Zelensky to talk! Of course, once that happens, polish troops will move into western Ukraine and take control of the region. Link by link, we'll see!