Russia cracks Dukina attack: Ukraine was behind the attack, Kiev's decision-making center is in danger

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on August 22 that it had solved the murder of the daughter of prominent Russian academic Alexander Dugin, the World News agency reported, citing RIA Novosti.

The Ukrainian intelligence service was behind the attack, directly linked to Natalia Pavlovna, a Ukrainian secret agent born in 1979. She arrived in Moscow with her daughter on July 23, 2022, and rented an apartment in the same building where Dukina lived to get information about it. On the day of the assassination, she and her 12-year-old daughter attended a "Heritage" music festival and planted an explosive device in Dukina's car in the parking lot.

According to the FSB's press service, Vovk took his daughter to Estonia via Russia's Pskov Oblast on August 21 after completing a murder mission ordered by Ukraine's intelligence service.

The FSB released three license plates from Vovok's Mini Cooper, which had been recorded by highway surveillance. When he drove his car into the Russian border, Vovke wore the license plate "Donetsk People's Republic." Mother and daughter repeatedly used Kazakh license plates when stalking their murder victim, Dukina, in Moscow. When they left Russia for Estonia, mother and daughter got a new license plate -- Ukrainian.

The FSB has handed over the material from the preliminary investigation to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation. According to the Russian newspaper Le Point, Russian Internet users have spotted the car Vovke was in when he murdered Dukina, and it is now being sold on a Ukrainian website by a man with the same surname as the killer's daughter.

It is worth noting that, according to the Guardian, late on August 21, Mikhail Ponomaryov, the ousted former deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma, claimed that the case was carried out by the National Republican Army, a Russian guerrilla group, in order to "rebel against Putin".

But an official Russian investigation apparently denied that the attack on Dukina, a Moscow suburb, was carried out by Ukraine. And according to a statement released by the Russian Federal Bureau of Investigation, it's clear what suspect Natalia Shaaban was aiming for. But it is worth noting that according to many previous analyses by Russian media, Dukina is not the target, the real target is her father Dugin. After all, Mr Dugin has far more influence over the Kremlin and Russian society than Ms Dukina. And Dugin that day is also due to temporary business, did not take the explosion of the Toyota SUV.

But for Ukraine, where both Mr. Dugin and his daughter have been vocal advocates of a Russian attack, the aim may still be to create fear in Russia.

It is worth noting that both Ukraine and Russia belong to East Slavic ethnic groups, and the ties between their citizens are deep, with many even related. So it's not hard for Ukrainians to infiltrate into Russia.

As for the fact that the Russian FBI solved the assassination within a day, it wasn't that hard. Because in the public places where Dukina hangs out, there will be cameras, and if you pull up the cameras and check them carefully, you'll find something fishy.

Since Dukina's death, Russia has pointed the finger at Ukraine, with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova saying that if Ukraine is found to be involved, it will have to consider Ukraine's policy of state terrorism.

Just two days after the news broke that Ukraine had approved the use of poison against Russian troops, it will be interesting to see how the Russians react to the news that they planned the assassination of Russian citizens.

According to the latest information published by Izvestia newspaper, the Kremlin's official website has been posted on the contents of the telegram Putin sent to the family, in addition to expressing condolences to the family, Putin also called the killing of Dukina a despicable crime. The cable did not specify a response.

However, it is worth noting that the possibility of a strong Russian response is very high, after all, if this kind of incident is not stopped by strong deterrence, the Russian people will be very dangerous.

So how will Russia respond? In fact, by now the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become so intense that all the means available to both sides have been exhausted. As for whether the Russian military will further intensify its offensive on the battlefield in Ukraine. At this point in the conflict, the two sides now appear to have entered a period of confrontation in which Russian forces, even if they intensify their offensive, are unlikely to make much headway, and simply expanding their offensive will not deter the Ukrainian authorities.

It is worth noting that there are two other points that Russia has yet to make. First, from the beginning of the war to the present, Russia has not attacked the decision-making centers of Ukrainian state departments in Kiev, such as the presidential palace, the Verkhovna Rada, the Ministry of Defense, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Second, Russia did not attack the bridge over the Dnieper River.