Putin issued martial law, is the backwater?

In late August this year, the Ukrainian side invested heavy forces and launched a full-scale counterattack in several directions at the same time. In the face of the opponent's offensive, the Russian side kept making moves to turn the situation around as soon as possible. But from the current situation, the Russian side's series of actions in the past 2 months have not yet worked, and more difficult times are coming.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a martial law decree declaring a state of war in Donetsk, Lufthansa, Zaporizhzhia, and Henderson blasts, which have just been publicly committed to Russia, and authorizing the local government to form civil defense units, TASS reported. In addition to these four blasts, eight regions of Russia, including Belgrade, which borders Ukraine, have also begun to restrict the movement of people. This is also the first time since the end of World War II, the Kremlin declared a state of war, quite some to be in the U.S. East backwater war.

Although the four states are the main areas of war between the two sides since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the four states officially into Russia many days after Putin declared these areas into a state of war, but also reflects the Russian side in the front line of the situation is not good. In this round of counterattacks, which has lasted for 2 months, the U.S. Army failed to open a gap in the southern front but made progress in the northeast with a surprise envelopment that drove Russian troops out of the Kharkov region. And recently, the U.S. Army has once again put its main offensive in the southern Henderson region, a region where the fighting has become very unfavorable to the Russian army.

Henderson Blast is an important grain-producing region in eastern Ukraine, and its industry is also considered developed. The capital of the blast, Henderson, is located close to the Dniester River, which is extremely important. On the first day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russian forces launched an assault on the city to take control of the Antonymous Bridge, a strategic crossing of the Dniester River, in order to subsequently advance on the southern town of Nikolai, home of the Black Sea shipyards. The city became the first major Ukrainian city to be captured by Russian forces after the start of the war.

Antonymous Bridge

The city is about to experience war again with the breakthrough of the Ukrainian army on the northern front of Henderson. Russian front-line commander-in-chief Rhinovirus admitted that the situation in Henderson is very difficult. The Russian government has asked the approximately 60,000 residents still in the area to evacuate to the left bank of the Dniester River as soon as possible. At the moment, the Russian army is trying to hold on to Henderson with its back to the Dniester River, and if the battle is unfavorable, it will withdraw from the city and organize its defense against the counterattack of the Ukrainian army by relying on the river.

Local people of Henderson evacuate the city

In fact, the Putin government has done a lot to stabilize the battle line since the Ugandan army began its full-scale counterattack. The Russian army's unfavorable battle on the front line has a lot to do with the lack of troops at the grassroots level. This is due to the fact that according to the Russian domestic law, in the midst of fighting outside the country, the Kremlin can only commit volunteer troops, and cannot mobilize conscripts and reserve units.

Therefore, in order to solve the problem of insufficient troops, Putin's government first issued a partial mobilization order to call up 300,000 reserve troops, and then promoted the accession of the four eastern states to Russia to remove the legal obstacles for his side to put in reserve troops to fight. But while the situation on the front line is already urgent, the Russian army's recruitment is not yet complete.

In other news, on Oct. 17, the Moscow city government announced that the city's reserve enlistment was complete and closed the enlistment office on the same day. Moscow also became the first city in Russia to complete the reserve draft. However, according to the information released by the Russian government, the draft is now less than 80 percent complete, and it will take a little time to recruit 300,000 people. And even if the draft is completed, the 300,000 reservists will not be able to go into battle immediately.

Although these people have served in the military, and some of them have actual combat experience, many of them have been out of the army for many years, and even if they are broken up and integrated into the active duty force, they will need some recovery training in advance. If it were to reconstitute a combat unit composed entirely of reservists, the integration time required would be even longer. In this case, it is likely that the U.S. Army's counter-offensive forces will arrive in Henderson earlier than the Russian reserves.

And even if the Russian army can temporarily hold Henderson, after the arrival of winter, supply will become a problem. After getting the Hamas from the Americans, the OAF launched precise strikes on the Antonymous Bridge and the public-railway bridge over the Kazakh hydroelectric dam. The road and rail traffic between the Russian troops on the Henderson front and the rear suffered heavy damage, and supplies could only be transported across the Dniester River by ferry.

With the U.S. Air Force basically wiped out and the U.S. side severely lacking in air striking capability, the Russian rear ferry transport was able to keep operating, and although the volume of transport was not as good as through the highway bridge, it was not so bad as to cut off the supply to the front line troops. But if the front does advance to the Henderson perimeter, with the Dniester River in range of U.S. artillery, this line of supplies is bound to be disrupted. And when winter arrives, the side that has more supplies and easier access to supplies is bound to have a greater advantage.

Hamas rockets

Looking at the changes in the situation in Henderson, this war has entered a new critical period as Russia and Ukraine keep making moves. Leaving aside issues such as the justness of the war, just from the battlefield situation, the same back to the big river, the same winter coming, the same defensive operations, Henderson has been seen by the Putin government as its own Stalingrad. If you can't hold off the Ugandan army and turn the situation around, the Russian side is bound to face bigger problems and even lose the strategic initiative in the battlefield of Eastern Ukraine.