Myanmar internal problems have a long history, but the road to peace in northern Myanmar is still long

Recently, under the mediation and promotion of the Chinese side, the Myanmar government forces and the representatives of the three -Burma civilians of the northern Myanmar civilians were held in Kunming, Yunnan, and reached a formal ceasefire agreement in Kunming, Yunnan, China. The two sides agreed to stop the fire immediately, and the military officers were out of contact

The internal problems in Myanmar have a long history. All parties stop and stop, stop and play, and endless. If this is just the internal affairs of Myanmar, China will naturally have no need to intervene. However, as a near -neighbor connected with Chinese landscapes, the chaos in Myanmar seriously affected the stability of the Chinese frontier and the safety of the people's lives and property, and also seriously affected the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.

The proposed Sino -Myanmar Economic Corridor could not be landed because of the Myanmar Civil War. In particular, a large amount of electricity parks developed in Myanmar have developed in recent years, which are specifically targeted at the Chinese and bring great harm to the lives and property of the Chinese people. This is determined that the issue of civil war in Myanmar cannot be ignored.

At the end of last year, all parties had reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, but all parties believed that their own interests were not satisfied. Several heavy towns in northern Myanmar are in the hands of the Burmese army, and the anti -government allies are not satisfied; government forces are unwilling to lose several strategic points in northern Myanmar. Inside the Allied forces, some forces occupy a large site, with some forces, such as the Deion Army and Ruo Kaijun, and they did not gain a lot. Therefore, the ceasefire was not maintained.

However, in the current Burmese battlefield, the government forces were defeated, and the Allied forces occupied the whole courage and controlled all the land ports to China. The Burmese government military control zone is actually unable to borders China. The Burmese military government's international situation is not good. Western countries excuses that the military government has imprisoned Aung San Sung Ji and implemented long -term sanctions on Myanmar.

Throughout Western public opinion, the Myanmar military government is an extremely negative typical example. If Myanmar wants to develop the economy and consolidate Tong'an, the only hope is to obtain China's support and open up a trade corridor with China.

However, from the battle between the Allies and the Burmese army, the Burmese Army relied on its own strength to unable to open up the corridor. Especially in the courage, the Burmese army even surrendered throughout the theater. The military government has taken measures many times to try to recover the defeat, but it has not been reversed. In addition, the vicious incident of the Burmese army has repeatedly occurred and wounded the Chinese border people. It can be seen that the level of control of the battlefield is low.

However, it is difficult for the allies to develop further. Allied forces have been moving in mountain jungle, and the form of the army is mainly light infantry. Before the war, a small number of drones were obtained, which is the only high -tech weapon.

Except for Langbang, there are very few fighting vehicles in other civilians, let alone long -distance logistics support. Once you leave the mountains in northern Myanmar, there is no advantage at all. If you continue to attack the Burmese army occupation area, it will be counterattacked by the Burmese Army's advantages of Air Force, artillery and armored soldiers.

Therefore, in the current Burmese battlefield, both sides have entered the stalemate and created conditions for the peace talks. As for what it looks like, I am afraid it is not optimistic. The contradiction between the Myanmar government and the civilians have a long history. In decades of intercourse, more than hundreds of thousands of casualties have more than hundreds of thousands of people. There are complicated and difficult to resolve blood vengeances between many parties, and it is difficult to reach a peace agreement. What's more serious is that the United States needs to use the Burmese Civil War issues to destroy the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and make a source of turmoil around China. This makes the Myanmar issue more complicated. China should have psychological preparations.

However, there are currently favorable conditions.

The first is that all parties in Myanmar attach great importance to Chinese opinions. Regarding the requirements of the Chinese side, even if they are reluctant, the military government and civilians have expressed their acceptance. Secondly, all parties hope to develop economic and financial distress.

Myanmar's economy is extremely developed and the people's lives are hard. Even the military government is facing financial urgency. The people's martial arts are in a small control zone, and they must also maintain and expand the army, which is very difficult. Where to transit the Sino -Myanmar Economic Corridor Program proposed by China will bring economic prosperity. If it can be implemented smoothly, it is good for the control areas of different forces.

Therefore, when China regulates the contradictions of all parties in Myanmar, it is not only a powerful neighboring country, but also a future guidator and a better future provider of the region. Even if the parties in Myanmar have conflicts in the future, as long as they cooperate in accordance with China, they will bring prosperity and development. Otherwise, it is war chaos and poverty. This is the power of Chinese solutions.