How Ukraine's New OP Strategy Will Help It Win the War

Putin does not appear to be the type of person who is easily shaken, but a strategy employed by the Ukrainian army appears to have taken him completely by surprise. But what exactly is this new approach, called "thunder runs" by some commenters? Did Ukraine design a whole new fighting tactic to deploy against Russia? Here's why Ukraine's conventional practices are so efficient, and why the Russian army is now focused on survival rather than triumph. 🎖⚔🩸

• Putin doesn't seem to be the type of person who is easily rattled, but the Ukrainian army's tactic appears to have taken him completely by surprise. The Russian army is no longer dreaming of victory but rather of how to survive, which is why Ukraine's new tactics are so successful. However, what is this new tactic that some commenters have dubbed "thunder runs"? After months of grueling combat, Ukrainian forces launched an offensive operation in two locations at once at the beginning of September, one aimed at Kherson in the south and the other at the Kharkiv Oblast in the northeast. The counterattack swiftly breached the Russian defenses surrounding Kharkiv, liberating the city, its vital rail hubs, and numerous nearby villages that had been occupied by Russia for months.
• Even the most optimistic predictions were exceeded by this sudden progress. Few people thought the operation would result in more than modest territorial gains, but by the time it was over, Ukraine had not only dealt its enemy a devastating psychological blow but also liberated thousands of kilometers of land, taken large quantities of prisoners and equipment, severed crucial support lines, and sent Russian forces fleeing in fear. Residents of Ukraine even reported instances of Russian soldiers attempting to flee on stolen bicycles while dressed in civilian clothing because they were so desperate to do so. As the war continues, it is difficult to say whether this represented a turning point.
• Few, however, can contest the tactical prowess of Ukrainian forces that was on full display, despite the fact that the counteroffensive's wider effects are still unknown. In order to comprehend the devastating strategies at the core of Ukraine's recent success, it is important to first understand the idea of maneuver warfare. Effective warfare has relied on tactical mobility for thousands of years. In order to take advantage of an adversary's weaknesses, maneuver warfare relies on a combination of initiative, deception, speed, and disruption. It basically goes against attritional warfare, in which both armies attempt to outlast one another over an extended period of time.
• The goal of maneuver warfare is to isolate, strangle, and sever the support structures that sustain the enemy with a limited number of decisive actions, as opposed to merely engaging and destroying enemy forces in the field. This frequently entails completely avoiding forward strongholds and instead scouting out potential weak spots and ambushing the enemy where they least expect it. These unexpected discoveries sow a web of confusion and chaos that, given the right conditions, can completely sap the enemy's will to fight. Effective military maneuvers have been used throughout history. Modern commanders continue to preach battlefield mobility as a non-negotiable tenet of successful war fighting, perhaps best exemplified in history by the highly mobile horsemen of the Eurasian steppes, Hannibal's forces at Cannae, and Napoleon's legendary combinations of cavalry and fast-marching infantry who dominated European armies with deception and speed.
• Naturally, everything changed with the industrialization of warfare in the middle of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries. Armies were able to make significant advances by concentrating mobile mechanized formations at vulnerable spots along the enemy lines after trains, trucks, and tanks were introduced to the battlefield. Images of German panzers rumbling across the Low Countries in the early 1940s may have best embodied this doctrinal development. The German blitzkrieg epitomized maneuver warfare at its best, utilizing cutting-edge tools and strategies to secure significant early victories in World War II. Although many have compared the recent offensive in Ukraine to the German blitzkrieg, the Ukrainians have applied the concept of maneuver warfare on a much smaller scale than the Germans did.
• Instead of closely coordinating air and mechanized ground assets to destroy enemy forces on a wider operational level, as the German "lightning war" sought to achieve, the Ukrainians have employed what some commentators have dubbed "thunder runs" to shift the strategic initiative in their favor. So what exactly is a "thunder run"? Also known as a "light strike," "reconnaissance in force," or "reconnaissance by fire," "thunder runs" call for fast, heavily armored military convoys to enter enemy territory at great depths while avoiding defense strongholds and unimportant cities in an effort to surround and destabilize the enemy's rear.
• Thunder runs unleash a crippling psychological effect on those they come into contact with by starting fire, spotting weaknesses, moving on, and reversing course when necessary. When it works, the results are astounding. Lightweight armored vehicles, such as civilian 4x4s, pickup trucks, and western-donated Humvees in the case of Ukraine, sporadically engage the enemy while directing advancing infantry and armor behind them to areas where they can cause the most harm. With the help of this tactic, Ukraine's thunderous army quickly overpowered the demoralized Russian defenders in the Kharkiv Oblast, cutting them off from their parent units in a way that rendered entire Russian formations disorganized and combat ineffective.
• The success of a thunder run depends on a number of overlapping, contingent factors. First, the weather must be favorable—at least favorable enough for off-road vehicles to move quickly. Second, there must be a promising window of opportunity—one in which the enemy suffers from flawed intelligence, low morale, poor command and control, or exposed logistical lines. Third, the advancing forces must avoid overreaching by meticulously planning each stage of the advance while establishing safe and secure positions. Every requirement was met by the recent Ukrainian offensive.
• The 1,000-kilometer Kharkiv front was left exposed and vulnerable for months. High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, decimated Russian ammo and supply depots, command posts, and other targets far behind enemy lines, causing Russian morale to plummet. It took place at the end of a long, hot summer. It was preceded by a convincing deception campaign that lured many of Russia's most experienced units south.