History

1 History

History is the sum of all the facts that have happened, ranging from cosmic stars to flies and ants... From simple elementary particles to complex multicellular life are all part of history.

The pleasure of a historian is not just to pile up historical materials and "name" each stage. In Feynman's words, "the important thing is not to know his name", but to understand "why".

For example, why did history happen "like this"? Why did it evolve like this? Finding the so-called "historical laws" is undoubtedly one of the greatest joys of reading historical books: what is more interesting than reading a historical book, hiding the volume and thinking, and inferring, predicting and analyzing "why" according to the limited "historical materials"?

For example, why is a country so developed in economy, science, technology and civilization? We have to trace back some comprehensive factors (from culture, language, political and economic systems...), even historical opportunities, and even congenital geographical advantages, rather than a certain characteristic.

A "high-quality" history education must not be reciting the names of historical events, historical materials or historical figures. A wise historian must have scientific literacy. He is not only good at using logic, but also good at empirical analysis. Like a detective, he has the ability to make accurate judgments from limited information and restore the "truth" of historical events.

In the game of reasoning about history, the best thing is to put forward assumptions and make predictions. Neil Ferguson happens to make such an attempt in "virtual history": assuming that history does not develop like this, what will it look like? It reads a bit like science fiction, which is very interesting.

In a sense, the process of counterfactual reasoning based on the assumption of history presents the constantly dynamic, exploratory and unpredictable history itself more truly.

The real history is such a river. All the details so far may change in the future (with the update of historical materials and information). History has never happened in the refrigerator, and will never be "frozen" or "frozen".

2 about macro history

By the way, apart from trivial human history, "great history" is also a new historical perspective, based on knowledge in various fields (Astronomy, geology, biology, Anthropology...), based on some common sense with half-life, and even theories that may be overturned at any time.

Typical example: the inference of the "age of the origin of the universe" relies on the latest observation data of cosmology and the calculation of Hubble parameters. In the latest discovery, the universe, once regarded as 13.8 billion years, has been reduced by 2.4 billion years to 11.4 billion years (and this age may still be inaccurate)

3 historical laws

Sometimes, the so-called "law" in textbooks about historical laws depends on the "invention" of historians, such as how to skillfully arrange and explain the causal relationship of events, or give a special meaning to an event, which is not completely acceptable.

In the final analysis, the reason why history cannot be predicted is that there are too many variables, "historical law" is not "constant" like "natural law", and there are too many factors that cannot be quantified and analyzed.

Young people with moles may ask: is it possible to quantify the main factors affecting historical development, build a model, and even include them in the equation? And finally form a theory to make a judgment about the future?

If you have ever thought like this, Asimov will give you a compliment. His "psychohistory" is exactly such a concept: "quantifying things that cannot be quantified, calculating the future that cannot be calculated"

If "base" is not taken seriously as a science fiction, then what kind of questions should we ask?

We need to ask: how to quantify the impact of a factor? (for example, the specific influence of economy on History)

For example, the influence of historical strongmen on the historical track? (the influence of Hitler, Napoleon and Mao Zedong on the historical trend)

four

Digression:

For Tolstoy, this is not a problem (in war and peace, the history in his eyes is not the result of Napoleon's strong will, and the turning and development in the historical track is more the product of "contingency".

For Asimov, it is just an interesting setting: "if history can be calculated".

Released at 10:37 on June 19, 2022