Farage Blames Nick Lowe and Andy Burham.

No doubt about it, Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage threw everything they had at the Makerfield by-election, including the proverbial kitchen sink. Nigel Farage himself had gone up to Makerfield in Greater Manchester to make sure his candidate, a local plumber, defeated Labour's candidate, soon to be ex-Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham and now its Member of Parliament.

The only way that Nigel Farage could explain his party's second-place showing was two politicians, one being Andy Burnham and the other Rupert Lowe. Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election is a rarity. Labour has been losing big in recent local elections and by-elections. Many Labour voters and voters in general feel Sir Keir Starmer is a busted flush. It has been a traumatic time for the Labour Party and for the prime minister himself. Soon after the catastrophic losses in recent elections, many within the Labour Party were calling for the head of the man they blamed for their losses, Sir Keir Starmer. When Starmer won the landslide election in July 2024, people voted Labour because they wanted something different to the disastrous Conservative government. It seems for one reason or another, the public's love affair with the bespectacled Starmer is over. It is rumoured that Andy Burnham, who always salivated at the idea of returning to Westminster, even when he was Mayor of Manchester, wants to be in 10 Downing Street by September.

Thus, it is expected that once Andy takes the oath of office to be Makerfield MP, he will shortly issue a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer to replace him as leader of Labour and for the top job in No 10. Several ministers have resigned from Sir Keir's cabinet, one of the biggest was former Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Streeting it is expected will also throw down the gauntlet to Sir Keir to launch his bid to replace him. Former Deputy Prime Minister is also expected to throw her hat into the ring. As is Ed Miliband. The bookies, though, will have Andy Burnham as the favourite to be the next prime minister, conversely. Sir Keir, however, despite some of his colleagues at a cabinet meeting telling him "to go", has vowed to face his challengers.

Nigel Farage blamed voters for voting for Andy simply to get Starmer out. That is probably true even for Reform UK voters who switched allegiances temporarily to lend Andy their vote in the hope he will beat Sir Keir and replace him as prime minister. However, all this could backfire on them as Burnham appears more on the left than Starmer ever was. Some of his policies seem very LGBTQ friendly and less harsh on migrants, something voters on the right will hate. Can Starmer survive Burnham? While I am usually an open-minded person on many things, I would say the writing is on the wall for Starmer, and to save himself embarrassment from a defeat by Burnham or the unlikely event of another challenger beating him, he would do well to follow the advice of those around him and pack his bags.

So is Burnham's victory a fluke, like Farage hopes or the start of something that could block the path of Farage becoming prime minister himself? I can't answer that, and to do so would only be speculation. Reform UK has faced two losses, one in the Gorton and Denton by-election, when the Green Party's poster girl Hannah Spence was elected to Westminster. And now to the former Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham. To Reform UK, these two losses are an aberration. Mostly, Reform UK wins and is still on target as the most popular party in Britain overall. Future events will determine whether this continues to be the case going forward.

Nigel Farage now has a nemesis in the form of Rupert Lowe MP and his new party, Restore Britain or just Restore. Rupert Lowe was a former Reform UK member, but he left unhappy with the party. Consequently, he has formed a new party, Restore Britain. The party is offering more radical policies, particularly on migration and immigration. For example, Rupert Lowe has espoused that his party would introduce "the most ambitious programme of mass deportations ever seen in Britain".

Rupert Lowe has attracted many supporters who feel disillusioned with Farage. Some say the party has become home to the radical right of the Tommy Robinson variety. Whatever you make of Restore, it is taking on Reform UK on its own ground and eating into support for it.

As well as blaming the Andy Burnham factor for why he came second in the Makerfield by-election, Farage has also acknowledged the looming danger of Rupert Lowe and Restore.