According to a CNN poll, neither Biden nor Trump have the full support of their respective parties for a run in 2024.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump face significant opposition within their parties to running again in 2024, according to a new CNN Poll.
According to a recent CNN poll done by SSRS, a large proportion of Democrats and Republicans want their parties to find alternatives to President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the next presidential race. Few, though, have specific candidates in mind, highlighting how far away — and possibly malleable — the 2024 election is.
The poll, which was conducted in January and February, found that 45 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters wanted Biden to be renominated in 2024, while 51 percent wanted someone else. Biden has higher support in the party among voters 45 and older (52% want to see him as the nominee again), voters of color (55%), and voters without a college diploma (51 percent ). There's also a divide between the 48 percent of Democrats who want Biden to be renominated and the third of Democratic-leaning independents who agree.
Biden's 2024 support is concentrated among the party's most committed supporters. While 70% of Democratic voters who highly approve of the way he's handling the job want him to be renominated, only 35% of Democrats who approve moderately want him to be renominated.
Republican and Republican-leaning voters on both sides of the aisle are roughly evenly split between wanting their party to nominate Trump again (50 percent) and wanting a new candidate (50 percent). Trump was backed by a majority of Republicans (54 percent), compared to 38 percent of Republican-leaning independents. Within the GOP, continued support for Biden is especially high among White voters without a college diploma (60 percent) and those who wrongly say Biden's 2020 victory was illegal (64 percent ).
Of course, the next presidential primary is almost two years away, and these poll results are no indication of how the nominating process will unfold then. They do, however, provide a view of the parties' current state: both are split on whether to unite behind their existing flagbearers, but none has anointed an alternative as of yet.
When compared to previous poll results on a similar issue, both Biden and Trump's numbers appear to be mediocre. Nearly 8 out of 10 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they wanted Barack Obama to be renominated in March 2010. (79 percent ). In March 2018, Republican and Republican-leaning voters overwhelmingly supported Trump's re-election bid (77 percent ).
However, the latest poll reveals that the apprehension about both Biden and Trump derives from questions about their electability and other factors rather than partisan opposition to them being president.
31 percent of Democratic-aligned voters indicated they wanted Biden replaced on the ticket because they didn't want him to be reelected. Thirty-five percent said it was mostly because they doubted Biden's capacity to defeat a Republican candidate, while the rest cited a variety of other reasons, the most prevalent of which (19 percent) was anxiety over Biden's age. (In November 2024, Biden will be 82 years old.)
Similarly, Democratic-aligned people aren't flocking in droves to any particular alternative: Only 12% of all Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters preferred someone other than Biden as the nominee and had a specific candidate in mind. Moreover, 5% of those opposed to Biden at the top of the ticket mentioned no specific contender.
On the Republican side, only 39% of those who don't want Trump on the ticket say it's because they don't want to see him as president again. Twenty-two percent doubted Trump's ability to defeat the Democrats, while 38 percent had other reasons, such as a desire for a newer candidate (9 percent) or someone less polarizing (7 percent), or concerns about Trump's demeanor (7 percent) (6 percent ).
According to the CNN Poll, only 19 percent of all Republican-aligned voters identified a favored option to Trump, while 29 percent chose "simply someone other than Trump." However, among those seeking alternatives to Trump, one name stood out: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 21% of the vote, with no other contender receiving more than 1%.
Even this early in the campaign, Americans are more inclined to say they are looking forward to the next presidential election (58 percent) than dreading it (38 percent) (41 percent ). However, there is a clear party divide: 81 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they were looking forward to 2024, while only 44 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they were.
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from January 10 to February 6 among a random nationwide sample of 1,527 persons who were first contacted by mail. This is CNN's second survey utilizing this technique. The surveys were performed either online or over the phone with a live interviewer. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
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