Planning Fallacy

If you consistently find yourself running late for work, frequently miss deadlines, frantically shop for presents on Christmas Eve, or always submit your income tax return late, don't worry. You're not alone, and it's likely not because you're incompetent or lazy. Well, unless you're watching this video at three o'clock in the afternoon in your pajamas, then all bets are off.

What's more probable is that you're a victim of something called the planning fallacy. It's a common human tendency to overestimate how quickly we can complete tasks or underestimate the time it takes to get things done. You may have experienced this phenomenon in your own life, or even observed it happening around you.

For instance, the construction of the Sydney Opera House took 10 years longer than planned and ended up costing 14 times more than the initial budget. The Berlin Airport project took 15 years of planning and still finished nine years behind schedule. Even Pinky and the Brain plan to take over the world every night, but they've yet to succeed.

So, don't be too hard on yourself. The planning fallacy catches not only individuals, but also professionals whose job is to plan, along with other highly intelligent individuals.

In 1857, the Philological Society of London, a group of language enthusiasts dedicated to the study of language, criticized the existing English dictionaries as inadequate. They decided to embark on an ambitious project to review and update every word added to the dictionaries since around 1150 AD. This project eventually gave birth to the first edition of the Oxford English Dictionary, a 10-volume masterpiece that was believed to contain every word in the English language.

However, the society severely underestimated the magnitude of the task. Instead of the expected ten years, it took a whopping seven decades to complete the full dictionary, which was published in 1928. It was a classic example of the planning fallacy.

The journey of creating the Oxford English Dictionary started slowly. For the first 20 years, not much progress was made. However, in 1879, James Murray, a philologist and lexicographer, was appointed as the editor. Under his leadership, the project gained momentum.

Murray's team worked diligently, processing two tons of source material collected by the Philological Society in a specially constructed room called the Scriptorium. Unlike previous dictionaries, the Oxford English Dictionary didn't just provide definitions but also included each word's history and quoted examples from various books and articles to demonstrate usage throughout different eras.

Prior to Murray's interventions, the task of compiling the dictionary was primarily undertaken by scholars. Consequently, the quotations used were predominantly sourced from classical literature. However, unlike my high school English teacher, Murray recognized that most people do not converse in Shakespearean language. He desired the English dictionary to reflect the everyday language spoken by ordinary individuals.

The challenge he faced was immense. To achieve his objective, Murray needed an army of individuals who would comb through countless English books and published materials to find appropriate quotes for each word in the dictionary. Realizing that progress was slow, or one might say sluggish, cumbersome, or ponderous, Murray initiated what could arguably be considered the first crowdsourcing campaign in history.

He reached out to English speakers and readers in the United Kingdom, America, and British colonies, urging them to submit English language quotations from various sources such as history books, novels, cookbooks, newspapers, travel books, and anything else they could access. This call to the English-speaking world resonated, and Murray's army of aspiring wordsmiths grew exponentially.

Among these volunteers, there was one individual who stood out from the rest. His name was William Chester Minor, and he made over 10,000 distinct contributions to the dictionary, second in volume only to Murray himself. Minor, an American doctor residing in the United Kingdom, held a surprising secret that would profoundly shock Murray. Behind his medical degree, Minor was a convicted killer and a paranoid schizophrenic.

While working on his extensive contributions to the world's greatest English dictionary, Minor led a double life, one as a volunteer and the other as a troubled individual with a criminal past and mental health struggles.

The success of Murray's collaborative approach is evident in the vast number of quotations amassed from these dedicated volunteers. Their collective efforts and love for the English language resulted in a wealth of linguistic treasures, enriching the Oxford English Dictionary and benefiting language enthusiasts and scholars for generations to come.

The journey of creating the dictionary stands as a testament to the power of language, the resilience of the human spirit, and the boundless capacity for individuals to come together and achieve greatness. The Oxford English Dictionary is not merely a compilation of words; it is a testament to the collective effort, passion, and dedication of countless individuals who recognized the importance of capturing the richness and diversity of the English language.