Is the ‘Islamic State’ a spent force?

The Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Da’esh, is most notorious for its crimes against indigenous people and miniroties in the Middle East. The atrocities committed were barbaric. Opponents of IS such as the Kurdish Peshmerga, Iraqi forces, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) backed by the international coalition are fighting the proto-terror-state. This resulted in IS losing territory to its opponents and ultimately to the death of Abu Baker Al-Baghdadi in a U.S special operation in northern Syria in 2019. Nevertheless, the Islamic State keeps following its agenda of radicalization and its fighters are active in different parts of the globe, particularly on the African continent and in South East Asian countries, where threats such as assassinations, bombing, and lone wolf attacks and ransoms. Most recently, authorities and experts raised their concerns regarding the future of IS. Hence, this paper sheds light on to what degree the current activities of IS keep terrorizing its target populations. Moreover, it is an appeal to the international community to pay attention to the concerns because IS reconstructing and gaining authority again could pose a threat to the world.

What is Islamic State?

IS is a radical Islamic group with an aggressive ideology that asserts Sharia and divine power over all Muslims.. The terrorist group's emergence occurred over a long time period. Formerly influenced by al-Qaida and jihadist Salafism, the group later publicly condemned it. After the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, IS started to reorganize and deploy its terrorists in conflict zones of Syria. The Islamic State took advantage of instability and sectarianism in Iraq to carry out offensive attacks on Sunni towns to repel the Iraqi army in 2014. The controversial withdrawal of Iraqi security forces from these towns and their military bases ended with the IS control of Mosul city with a population of nearly two million people. On June 29, ISIS Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the leader, announced the foundation of a caliphate extending from Aleppo in Syria to Diyala, and the group was renamed the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. At its peak, ISIS at its peak controlled roughly 40% of Iraq and Syria's land including natural resources, weaponry, and borders. IS committed brutal crimes against the security forces and civilians who refused to obey the Shari’a rules. By December 2017, however, IS had lost the majority of its resources including the nominal capital of the caliphate. Yet, it remains a critical security threat around the world despite its losses. asserts Sharia and divine power over all Muslims.. The terrorist group's emergence occurred over a long time period. Formerly influenced by al-Qaeda and jihadist Salafism, the group later publicly condemned it. After the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, IS started to reorganize and deploy its terrorists in conflict zones of Syria. The Islamic State took advantage of instability and sectarianism in Iraq to carry out offensive attacks on Sunni towns to repel the Iraqi army in 2014. The controversial withdrawal of Iraqi security forces from these towns and their military bases ended with the IS control of Mosul city with a population of nearly two million people. On June 29, ISIS Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the leader, announced the foundation of a caliphate extending from Aleppo in Syria to Diyala, and the group was renamed the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. At its peak, ISIS at its peak controlled roughly 40% of Iraq and Syria's land including natural resources, weaponry, and borders. IS committed brutal crimes against the security forces and civilians who refused to obey the Shari’a rules. By December 2017, however, IS had lost the majority of its resources including the nominal capital of the caliphate. Yet, it remains a critical security threat around the world despite its losses.

After IS losing its last pockets in Syria, namely the town of Baghouz in Der Al-Zur province in 2019, most of the organization’s leaders went into hiding including the current supreme leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashmi. Authorities have raised concerns regarding the future of surviving terrorist leaders in the region as it is believed that they are hiding in rural areas in Syria and deserts on the Iraqi border where the Islamic state is still popular. Indeed, IS fighters are clrealry operation during night in the rural area

The surviving leaders of IS have urged the caliphate’s supporters to prepare for the next epic expansion soon. Indeed, the Islamic State’s spokesman Abu Hassan al-Muhajr has stated “revenge the blood of your brothers and sisters, prepare the explosives and deploy the snipers.” According to intelligence reports, after the death of Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi, IS leadership has focused on reorganizing the organization’s affairs and setting suitable strategies to deal with the current situation.

The Global Coalition against Daesh has raised concerns regarding the IS leaders' rule after the death of Abu Baker al-Baghdadi in Syria. After the crucial degradation of ISIS capabilities in terms of resources and fighters, surviving leadership has set a “Regeneration Strategy” that intends to regroup the caliphate’s remnants.

After a series of deadly attacks on Peshmerga forces in October of 2022, people have argued about the danger of IS and the ability of the terrorist group to conduct attacks after its territorial loss in the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. hence this article shows the notable attacks in different parts of the world since it's territorial lose.

Asia

The flexibility of IS to operate in different parts of the world raises concerns regarding the ability of IS to create new sanctuaries for future activities. Furthermore, the Philippines have faced critical security threats posed by ISIS in the past years. Indeed, in 2017 IS controlled the city of Marawi which has a population of nearly 300,000 people. The battle of Marawi is considered the longest urban battle the Philippines forces fought and took them five months to recapture the town from ISIS fighters A heavily armed men waiving black ISIS flags occupied the nation’s only Muslim-majority city.The battle of Marawi and the brutality of ISIS fighters turned the Philippines into a new destination for terrorists around the globe. The battle ended with the death of 1,100 people and displaced thousands of civilians from their homes. Despite the success of security forces to recapture the town, ISIS fighters are posing threats to authorities in different parts of the country. Hence, during the COVID-19 lockdown, IS set a raid on a security checkpoint in Maguindanao province killing 11 and wounding 14 soldiers.

IS operated on different fronts including Afghanistan. Even though IS in Afghanistan did not succeed in expanding its influence as quickly as it spread in Iraq and Syria, despite the government's fight on one side and the Taliban on the other side, the organization was not defeated. Not only that, but it increased its influence in the various states in Afghanistan. However, there are analyses indicating the pretended strong influence of IS in Afghanistan since the conditions are suitable for the expansion of IS’s influence. Again, Islamic State has managed to maintain its foothold in Afghanistan after the territorial defeats in the so-called caliphate. Indeed, the Islamic State has announced the Khorasan Wilayeh in Afghanistan as one of the strongest fronts against the caliphate’s enemies. According to official Afghan resources, IS has more than 1,500 active terrorists spread over different regions. "Despite degraded military capabilities, it has continued to exploit difficulties in the Afghan peace process and claimed a number of high-profile attacks" The concerns regarding the future of IS in Afghanistan have been raised in conjunction with the decision of US forces withdrawal in the country “They don’t seem to be in a strong position of conquering and holding territory, but we are afraid they will return”.

The concentration of IS is not limited to a particular country. Indeed, IS has used any security gap in the world to attack its targets and expand its influence over the community. On April, 21 2019 IS claimed responsibility for brutal suicide attacks on civil targets. During Easter IS suiciders killed at least 253 people and wounded some 500 at religious and touristic places in Sri Lanka. Soon after the deadly attacks, Sri Lankan intelligence suspected eight Muslim jihadists of carrying out suicide bombings including Muhamad Zahran. Sri Lankan authority believes that the well-known Islamic preacher Zahran is the mastermind of these attacks who have returned from Syria after the collapse of ISIS. However, Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe the minister of justice has stated “Thirty-two Sri Lankan Muslims from well-educated and elite families have joined Islamic State in Syria”. The Sri Lankan government stated there is no data regarding the real identities of its citizens who have joined IS. Therefore, questions and concerns were raised regarding the fate of these fighters and their potential threats to Sri Lanka’s national security.

Africa

Lately, the African continent has experienced a significant increase in the Islamic State’s activities. Both weak security and economic conditions have helped ISIS to expand its influence in different countries of the African continent. Many local insurgent and terrorist groups have previously pledged their alliances to the Islamic Caliphate. ISIS has established three Wilayehs (regions) namely the West African Wilayeh located in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and Mali, the Central African Wilayeh located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique, and the Sinai state in Egypt, in addition to the state of the West African Wilayeh in Algeria. Not long ago, ISIS controlled an important port city of Palma northern Mozambique. Since the 23rd of March, 2021, the ISIS militants have committed horrifying crimes on the civils “The attack left dozens of people dead, including at least one South African and one British citizen”.

Accordingly, the armed forces have launched a series of counterattacks to recapture the town from ISIS militants but they failed to expel the terrorists from town due to the lack of sophisticated weapons and ammunition. Therefore, Mozambique’s government has called for international support to recapture areas from ISIS terrorists. Reports from security forces showed ISIS attacks on three fronts of northern parts of the country “In April, more than 50 people were beheaded or shot dead in an attack on a village in Cabo Delgado, and earlier this month, nine people were beheaded in another province”.

Middle-East

The Islamic State’s remnants are one of the biggest fears of authorities in Iraq. After IS’s defeat of its controlled territories, thousands of its fighters disappeared and turned to sleeper cells in society. These remnants of ISIS have posed threats to security forces, especially in the disputed areas between Erbil and Baghdad. On April 10, 2021, a Kurdish intelligence special unit managed to discover a network of IS’s sleeper cell planning to wage attacks in different towns. The network consisted of 22 ISIS terrorists including Abu Ali Jumaily the Wali (governor) of Fallujah in pretended caliphate administrational system.

In 2020, the Kurdish intelligence resources have repeatedly warned the Iraqi government the unusual activities of IS’s sleeping cells in southern parts of the country. Only in December of 2020, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for 106 attacks against security forces including assassinations, improvised explosive devices, ambushes, launching rockets and beheading security members who are not on the duty. Accordingly, Islamic State’s sleeping cells have claimed responsibility for two brutal suicide truck attacks in Baghdad the capital of Iraq. The first suicide attack targeted civils in a busy marketplace, then the second truck targeted the gathered people and security forces in the same place taking the lives of 32 people and wounding hundreds.

In the meantime, the European counter-terrorism forces have raised concerns regarding the capability of IS’s sleeping cells of posing threats especially after hundreds of extremists have returned to their countries after the collapse of the so-called caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Spanish police have detained five IS fighters in Barcelona planning for attacks and their affiliations with jihadists. Syrian Democratic Forces have warned the British authorities about the plans of ISIS’s sleeping cells in the UK “Thousands of fighters from the Islamic State are now on the loose and forming sleeper cells that could attack the UK at any time”.

After the territorial defeat of ISby the US-led coalition-backed forces, there are still thousands of ISIS supporters, families and fighters kept in a strongly protected camp of Al- Hawl in the south of Hasakah town in Syria. The Hawl camp is a shelter for around 70,000 people, mostly women, and children. Al- Hawl Camp is under the control of a coalition of Kurdish forces supported by the US despite having thousands of guards and enhanced security surveillance over the camp. The Kurdish forces have admitted they have nothing more than symbolic control inside the camp. Dozens of guards have been killed by camp refugees with stones and knives since the establishment of the camp by US funds and the support of western charities.

Al-Hawl camp is one of the most controversial arguments about the future of IS and its activities. Some experts have warned the authorities about the threat of Al-Hawl camp. Commanders of SDF who are in the charge of protecting the camp have frequently called the western countries to repatriate their citizens who are kept inside as dangerous foreign IS terrorists. Local people have named the camp “Mini-State of ISIS” which refers to conditions of chaos, radicalization, and brutality inside the camp. The camp is frequently described as “a breeding ground” for Islamic radicalism.

Violence and chaos in the camp reached its peak during the lockdown due to a decrease in the number of guards inside the camp. On March, 29 2021, the SDFs started a campaign of inspecting the camp by nearly five thousand fighters. The inspection ended with the arrest of several ISIS and Al-Qaeda fighters and leaders. Soon after the end of the campaign, the SDF started arresting people who are Islamic extremists who have hidden in the camp with fake identities. Al-Jumpily was on the top of the arrested list. He is originally from Iraq, he has worked for Al-Qaeda then he worked for IS after 2014 “Al-Jumpily has served as a Sharia Emir (senior sharia commander) and mufti until he hid among the inhabitants of Al- Hawl camp”. The results of inspections and the arrest of ISIS leaders raise concerns regarding the danger of Al- Hawl camp. Analyst says the camp is a center of radicalization and producing a new wave of extremists in the next few years” "Al Hawl will be the womb that will give birth to new generations of extremists".

The repeated brutal events inside the camp are messages from ISIS for its capabilities to cause instability in the region. International coalition and local forces have repeatedly expressed their concerns about the future of Al- Hawl camp which became a source of threat to liberated areas from ISIS “refugee camp has become more like a “ticking bomb” hosting ISIS-affiliated members and families”.

Prior to the predicted end of the so-called caliphate on the ground, the organization started to dig tunnels and fortify the caves to create safe havens for their foreign recruiters, ammunition, and fortunes. Reports have pointed to military commanders' fear of the ISIS fighter’s existence in those caves and tunnels. Kurdish Peshmerga forces have reported an increase in the number of ISIS fighters hiding in those catches inside Makhmour Mountain. “They have tunnel networks, they have some caves,” said General Sirwan Barzani the commander of the Black Tiger Brigade of Peshmerga forces.

Moreover, these tunnels and caves are considered real threats to Iraq's stability. Since 2018, Iraqi forces have started a campaign looking for Islamic State hidden tunnels in different regions including Hamrin Mountains, Diyala, and Baquba. In February 2018, the Iraqi Intelligence forces have discovered a massive network of 20 kilometers long tunnel in the town of Diyala. The tunnel contained refrigerators with tons of goods, washing machines, ammunition and powered by solar panels hidden far from the tunnel’s gate.

Security forces have faced difficulties in fighting the current insurgency because of the existence of these tunnels. Iraqi forces have defined the tunnels as safe havens for terrorists and dangerous traps for security forces. Indeed, intelligence resources have reported for future attacks by Islamic State “The tunnel and cave complexes formed part of wider preparations for the Islamic State’s insurgency”. After the Islamic State’s battle loss against U.S Coalition-backed forces, thousands of terrorists have disappeared and some of them have joined society with fake identities. These fighters have continuously posed threats to locals and security forces by planting explosives, and targeting security convoys with hit-and-run guerilla warfare methods. the number of these fighters who are hiding in caves and tunnels is estimated at thousands of fighters including ISIS leaders with the presence of strong popular support in some of the recently liberated areas, these numbers are shreds of evidence of the Islamic State’s capabilities in Iraq “British and other nations’ forces are fighting an estimated 10,000 Isis guerrilla fighters operating in Syria and Iraq”.

Furthermore, the Islamic State was controlling vast areas in both Syria and Iraq including the rich natural resources regions. Islamic State has depended on a variety of resources such as oil, agriculture, tax, ancient remains trafficking, and revenues from ransoms. However, analysts said on its peak times ISIS was making notable revenues from oil products “ISIS Makes Up To $3 Million a Day Selling Oil”.

Moreover, the Islamic State has gained huge revenues through its control over strategic territories. Analysts say ISIS has failed to consume all its revenues because of international campaigns against its so-called caliphate and the difficulty to spend huge revenues domestically. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has reported for confirmed information that ISIS leaders have buried tons of gold, precious goods, and big amounts of cash “the group could be hiding a mountain of gold it smuggled out of other Syrian provinces, with confirmation from the ground that IS was holding 40 tons of gold bars in Syria”. In fact, People from liberated areas have faced economic hardships that prevent them to gain life's basic needs. Poor economic conditions of these people make them vulnerable targets for ISIS to manipulate their operations. These hidden treasures of ISIS could be used at any time to support their future activities against Syrian forces.

Despite total control over Islamic State’s territories in Iraq in 2017 by local forces. The Islamic State recruits have kept huge stockpiled treasures in the country. On 16 April 2021 Iraqi intelligence Special Forces found $1.6 million in cash with hundreds of kilograms of silver gold under the rubble of houses in northern Mosul “buried materials were found in a depth of 3 meters underground”.

The fear of the Islamic State’s money is not limited to the stockpiled underground, but it comes from the Islamic State’s legal money. Kurdish intelligence resources have reported the success of ISIS leaders to launder ISIS’s money through a series of legal activities in the Middle East including buying houses, investment contracts, and companies “IS leaders had laundered tens of millions of dollars by investing in legitimate businesses throughout the Middle East over the past years”. However, reports have shown the pieces of evidence of Islamic State’s legitimate bank transactions around the world through agents “Investigators traced the flow of millions of dollars in Islamic State revenue through banking networks”

Despite of the failure of the Islamic State to maintain its caliphate on the ground, it has successfully published the ideology of Jihadi Salafism around the world. ISIS has left thousands of children brainwashed with radical ideologies. According to the United Nations statistics, there are more than 27,000 children in refugee camps in Syria and Iraq, who are sons and daughters of terrorists. These children have been raised with the brutal ideologies of the Islamic State. Children from six years old were forced to study extreme religious writings and then witness public executions of the caliphate’s opponents. Security experts showed their worries of the future of these children with radical ideologies indeed, a commander of Syrian Democratic Forces reported to the New Times newspaper that they are dealing with young terrorists not vulnerable children Psychologists from Syrian camps have raised their concerns regarding the future of these children. The brainwashing of these children has raised a generation that is empty of natural feelings including fear “reprogramming resulted in children embracing violence as a natural way of life and enhanced the progression for children to perpetrate violence themselves as combatants, torturers, and executioners”.

ISIS has targeted all members of society to publish its agenda regardless of their age and gender. Women were targeted to perform a wide range of activities for the caliphate including cooking, educating children, fighting, and Nika’h marriage (being married to several terrorists at the same time). After the defeat of ISIS and detain of these women in camps some of them have refused to take off their veils and have attacked the security forces and members of international humanitarian organizations “Médecins Sans Frontières worker killed in the Syrian refugee camp, to more than 30 the number of people who have killed in attacks in the camp”. Moreover, security forces have faced challenges in collaborating with people in newly liberated areas. Islamic State has successfully radicalized a generation that refuses to help the Iraqi government after years of liberating their towns. Despite of the vulnerability of these children who are the victims of ISIS propaganda, they have been considered as potential threats to national and international security “Each of these boys could grow up to become a threat to thousands, Islamic state still exists in the minds and souls of individuals”.

As matter of fact, the Islamic State has lost its strongholds in controlled territories of the so-called caliphate. But the territorial loss did not paralyze the Islamic state from posing threats to the international community. Foreign fighters who have joined ISIS are trying to return to their countries and many of the fighters have already returned. Islamic State has used social media and other means of connections to lead ISIS recruiters remotely in different parts of the world “Lone wolf attacks are one of the unpredictable and strongest weapons of ISIS”.

Europe

ISIS has claimed the responsibility for many lone-wolf attacks in European states For example, in 2016 a truck attack by an ISIS terrorist caused the death of 86 civils in the city of Nice on the south coast of France. ISIS claimed the responsibility for the attack in a statement and defined the attack as quick response by its recruiters to attack international coalition countries far from the caliphate territories "One of the Islamic State soldiers carried out the operation in response to calls to target nationals of the coalition which is fighting the Islamic State”.

ISIS terrorists have conducted horrifying lone-wolf attacks against other western countries including the London Westminster bridge attacks in 2017. However, authorities have reported arresting people after detecting suspicious activities. On 27 March 2021 Spanish police detained “an unnamed Moroccan who was suspected of plotting to carry out a 'lone wolf' attack this weekend”.

To sum up, IS have shown their presence around the globe despite the often defeat claims of the Islamic State. The argument of claiming the end of Islamic State remains a controversial topic because it has lost control over territory in the caliphate but its recent attacks have proved the ability of ISIS to pose threats to many countries in different parts of the world. Moreover, ISIS has turned from having a conventional war with states to guerrilla warfare tactics, including targeted assassinations, ambushes, raids, lone-wolf attacks, and bombings. Additionally, it has used security gaps to attack enemies and create influence. Despite many obstacles, ISIS still enjoys global acceptance by radical supporters around the world. Indeed, ISIS-pledged affiliated groups have strongly regenerated their ranks on different fronts. Most recently, ISIS has managed to restructure the virtual caliphate seeking to increase influence and recruit jihadists around the globe, therefore, the argument about a complete end to the organization seems to be a hasty talk for various considerations.