The Alien Problem.

Imagine NASA announced today that it has found extraterrestrial life. Bacteria on Mars, strange alien fish in the oceans of Europe, and ancient alien ruins on Titan. Isn't that great? Well, no. That would be terrible news, even devastating. It could mean that human extinction is almost certain and could come in the near future. why? Why should the most exciting discoveries of our lives be bad ones? Let's compare the development from the beginning of life to what we are today as a staircase. The first step is dead chemistry, which must assemble itself into self-replicating patterns that are not only stable and resilient, but also able to change and evolve. The second step is that our early lives became more complex, allowing us to build more complex structures and use available energy more efficiently. In the next step, these cells combine into multicellular organisms, enabling incredible diversity and further complexity. In the steps above, species evolve large brains that enable the use of tools, cultures and shared knowledge, resulting in greater complexity. This species has now become the dominant life form on Earth and can change it as needed. His first attempts to leave the planet are shy. Here is now As we know it is in the nature of life that covers every imaginable niche. And because the carrying capacity and lifespan of planets is limited, if a species wants to survive, it will seek out more space. So the steps above the current one seem logical.

Colonize your own solar system and continue expanding until the final stages to reach other stars.

A galaxy-wide civilization. This is very likely a universal principle for any civilization, regardless of where it comes from. If a species is competitive and motivated enough to rule its planet, it probably won't stop there. We know there are up to 500 billion planets in the Milky Way galaxy, and at least 10 billion Earth-like planets. Many have existed for billions of years longer than Earth. But we are not observing a galactic civilization. You should see something...but there's nothing. The space seems empty and dead. This means that something is preventing the creature from climbing the stairs beyond the step we are currently on, something that makes it very difficult, or perhaps impossible, to become a galactic civilization. This is the big filter, a challenge or hazard so difficult to overcome that it wipes out almost every species encountered. There are two scenarios:

One means we are special and lucky, the other means we are doomed and effectively dead. It depends on where the filter is placed on the stairs.

Behind us or in front of us?

Scenario 1:

Filters are behind us. we are the first If the filter is behind us, it means any of the steps we take are nearly impossible. What stage is it? Is life itself so rare? It is very difficult to predict the likelihood of life emerging from dead things. there is no consensus. Some scientists believe that it can occur anywhere given the right conditions. Some believe that Earth may be the only living place in the universe. Another candidate is the complex animal cell step. Something very special happened in this step. As far as we know, it happened only once. A primitive hunter cell engulfed another cell, but instead of devouring it, the two cells formed a bond. Larger cells were responsible for providing protection, interacting with the environment and providing resources, while smaller cells decided to use new homes and free stuff to provide enough extra energy for their hosts. Concentrated. With an abundance of energy, the host cell was able to grow stronger than before, building new and expensive things to improve itself, while the guest powered the cell. All animals on earth are made up of these cells. The Milky Way galaxy may have billions of planets covered in germs, but no one but us has reached that level of complexity, or intelligence. We humans feel so smart and sophisticated when we read his crossword puzzles and romance novels. But a big brain is first and foremost a very expensive evolutionary investment. They are fragile, useless in fisticuffs with bears, and require enormous amounts of energy, yet it took modern humans 200,000 years to establish civilization from sharp sticks. Being smart doesn't automatically win. Perhaps my intellect just isn't that great, and I was lucky that it worked.

Scenario 2:

The filter is right in front of you. Many others have already died. The large filters in front of us are orders of magnitude more dangerous than anything we've encountered so far. Even if a catastrophe killed most of us or set us back thousands of years, we would survive and recover. And even if it took a million years, even if we were able to recover, it wouldn't be much of a filter and would ultimately only hinder galactic civilization. On the cosmic time scale, millions of years are just the blink of an eye. If there is a truly great filter ahead, it is one that is so dangerous, so destructive, so powerful, that for billions of years, if not all advanced civilizations in our galaxy must have destroyed most of them. A truly depressing and depressing hypothesis is that once a species takes over the planet, it is already on its way to self-destruction. Technology is a good way to achieve this. It must be so obvious that virtually anyone discovers it, and dangerous enough that its discovery leads to existential catastrophe almost everywhere. Full-blown nuclear war, runaway nanotechnology, genetically engineered perfect superbugs, experiments that set the entire atmosphere on fire. It could be a super-intelligent AI that accidentally (or intentionally) destroys its creator. Or something happens that we can't even see at the moment. Or even easier:

Any species competitive enough to take over their own planet will inevitably destroy it as they compete for resources. Perhaps every ecosystem has a runaway chain reaction that is irreparable once set in motion. And when a civilization becomes powerful enough to change the composition of the atmosphere, the planet becomes 100% uninhabitable for her. Let's hope that's not the case. Very unlikely if the filter is in front of you. what we can expect. Because of this, finding life outside Earth would be terrifying. The more abundant life is in the universe, and the more advanced and complex it becomes, the more likely it is that there is a filter in front of us. Bacteria will be worse, small animals will be worse, and intelligent life will be alarming. The ruins of an ancient alien civilization...it's going to be terrible. Our best-case scenario right now is that Mars is barren, Europa's oceans are devoid of life, and the vast arm of the Milky Way harbors only empty oceans with dead continents. is, that billions of empty planets are waiting to be discovered and filled with life. Billions of new homes... We are waiting for your arrival. What are the chances of finding life like us outside of Earth? That depends on how many planets are in the star's Goldilocks zone, the region around the star where water can become liquid. It's decided.