Stock Picking in 2009

Do you ever get a feeling in your head and know that you are right? There is no explanation or concrete evidence that you are right, but the feeling persists. For me, it was picking stocks in 2009. I was a finance major in college and was required to pick a company and do a detailed analysis and compare that stock to another stock in the sector.

A fledgling company called Activision Blizzard was just about three years old and had caught my eye before this report. I decided to compare it to the well-established Electronic Arts. Call of Duty had recently started its incredibly popular run, and World of Warcraft was growing subscribers. I had personally grown up playing Electronic Arts games but could tell that Activision Blizzard’s titles were really beginning to catch people’s attention.

In my hours of boredom at my night job, I took things a step further and began picking other stocks that seemed to be nearing the bottom of their market dips. In 2009, the effects of The Great Recession were still palpable. Housing bubbles had burst, stocks were beaten down, and economies were tightening up around the world.

Investors dream of buying the dip. To get the timing exactly right is an ego and liquidity boost. For some reason in early 2009, a list of stocks began to repeat in my brain, and I had sticky notes on my desk with different lists and their prices. I always started my list with three stocks. Activision Blizzard, that sure thing in my head, was trading around $10.00. Citigroup was also trading near the single digits, and Ford was basically a penny stock at about $2.75.

I could not tell you why these three stuck out to me, but I found out later that one of my finance professors had borrowed money and purchased stock in both Citigroup and Ford but not Activision Blizzard. I spent countless hours at work trying to determine how much money to stick into my list of stocks. However, one night I left work with the sticky note still on my desk and never found it again. I thought I had my dream portfolio. What I didn’t have was the sticky note and a large amount of capital. Time passed. I did not ever find my sticky note, nor did I ever pull the trigger on my picks.

Looking back now, it is hard to swallow how much money I would have made. I contemplated borrowing $10,000 and investing $3,000 of my own. That means I would have put $5,000 into both Activision Blizzard and Citigroup, and $3,000 into Ford. For easy figuring, let’s pretend I had bought in to both Activision Blizzard and Citigroup at $10.00 a share, while I snatched up Ford for $3.00 a share. Today, Activision Blizzard is about $93.00 a share, Citigroup is roughly $73.00 a share, and Ford is over $12.00 a share. Again, for easy figuring, I will do some rounding.

2009 shares of stock:

Activision Blizzard: 500 shares.

Citigroup: 500 shares.

Ford: 1,000 shares.

All for a total cost of $13,000.

Fast forward to 2021.

Activision Blizzard: 500 shares at $93.00 for a total of $46,500.

Citigroup: 500 shares at $73.00 for a total of $36,500.

Ford: 1,000 shares at $12.00 for a total of $12,000.

In other words, my initial investment of $13,000 would have turned into $95,000, which is over seven times what was originally invested.

It is hard to say what stopped me from investing when my gut was so sure. Things have changed and made investing even easier since then with platforms like Robinhood and Fidelity doing zero commission trades. However, $82,000 of profit would have easily covered any commissions and interest owed. Regret is a funny thing. Years can pass by and nothing pops into your head. Then one night, it is hard to sleep, and you think about those days in college. I was telling everyone I could about Activision Blizzard stock but never really pulled the trigger myself. It is most embarrassing when I talk to a friend from college that actually pulled the trigger on Activision Blizzard in 2009 and is still holding it to this day. I still watch the market for dips and have made some money in the last few years, but 2009 may have been the best opportunity for me. And I missed it…