What Went Wrong: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

The New York Mets' 61st season was full of immense promise. They won 101 games this season, which was only their fourth 100+ win season in franchise history. The other seasons: 1969, 1986, and 1988. In those first two years, the Mets won the World Series, with 1969 being the famous "Miracle Mets" year where they came back from 10 games down in the National League East to win the division, while 1986 was the infamous Bill Buckner series; Mookie Wilson's walk-off RBI single going in between Buckner's legs in Game Six. The Mets did not win the pennant in 1988, but would win two more pennants in 2000 and 2015. 2016 was their last postseason until this year, and their journey would begin with the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres.

Despite Max Scherzer taking the mound, Game One did not go as planned for the Mets, as "Mad Max" surrendered four home runs in the 7-1 loss. Behind stellar pitching from Jacob deGrom, the Mets did take Game Two, becoming the only team to force a deciding Game Three, but that was a bigger disaster. The Mets were badly blanked, 6-0, and only had one hit in the entire game, which came from (who else?) Pete Alonso.

Now regarding "What Went Wrong?," obviously, getting blanked and nearly no-hit in a deciding do-or-die game at home is a huge embarrassment. Plus Scherzer getting knocked around in Game One is another detriment. However, what if I told you what went wrong had nothing to do with what happened in the series? What really went wrong with the Mets is simple: they could have avoided having to play this series by winning the NL East when they had the chance.

Once upon a time, the Mets not only had a huge lead in the NL East, they actually had the best record in baseball at some point. The Mets had a 10.5 game lead in the division, and it looked like a foregone conclusion that the National League pennant (at least) would go through Queens. However, the Mets went through a lull at the worst possible time: as the Atlanta Braves couldn't stop winning games. September was the worst of it, as their lead kept decreasing and decreasing, to the point that their final head-to-head series of the regular season would decide the division. Even then, the Mets had the advantage; they led the season series, 9-7, entering the trip to Atlanta. All they had to do was win just once, and they'd be in full control. Instead, the Braves swept the Mets, won the season series, and left the series with a magic number of one, which they would fulfill just a few days later.

The 2022 regular season was 180 days long. The Mets were in first place for 174 of those days, yet they lost the division. New York and Atlanta finished with identical 101-61 records, but Atlanta's 10-9 season series win gave them the tiebreaker. This collapse brings back memories of the 2012 Texas Rangers, who were swept in a pivotal series by the Oakland Athletics, who went on to win the division. The A's didn't reach first place until that final day--the day they clinched the division. Had the Mets won the NL East, they would have also had a bye straight to the Division Series, meaning that the Braves would have had to deal with the Padres. So overall, the Mets should have won the division, but didn't. They could have avoided the Wild Card Series, but didn't, and they would have had plenty of rest for the Division series, but didn't have it. Instead, they saw their season end much earlier than it should have.

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