NFL Week 9

Week 9

This was a week of upsets with a few statement wins thrown in. In what I am hoping will be a Superbowl rehearsal the Titans travelled to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. With home advantage and the Titans without their phenomenal running back Derrick Henry, the Rams started as reasonably significant favourites. Yet it was Tennessee who got off to a flying start, thanks largely to their defensive line causing havoc. They were 21-3 up at half time and never looked like losing from there, finishing up 28-16 winners. That, along with Buffalo’s shock 9-6 loss to Jacksonville, established the Titans in the number one seed position in the AFC. Given that they did all that without Henry, it put them well in the conversation for genuine Superbowl contenders, odds of 25-1 are certainly looking lively at this moment.

Other upsets included Cleveland destroying the Bengals in Cincinnati, I was not surprised by them winning but the margin of victory was a shock. Atlanta beat New Orleans with a last minute field goal, which is one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL, where the two teams genuinely do not like each other. Perhaps the biggest shock was Denver’s dismantling of the Cowboys in Dallas. They were 30-0 up before the Cowboys got a couple of consolation touchdowns, to make the final score a lot closer than the game ever was in every other aspect. All that after they had traded the legendary Von Miller to the Rams during the week. Another upset was the Giants beating the Raiders.

The Patriots won again, this time in Carolina, if it was the old days with Brady, they would be looking seriously ominous and striking fear into the league. It will be fascinating to see how they develop over the rest of the season, and whether they can start to generate some of that fear by the end of the year. This week’s win moved them to a 5-4 record and within a game of Buffalo at the top of the East.

With the way their seasons have gone so far, the match between the Ravens and the Vikings was always likely to get wild and it did just that. It was the Ravens that found a way to win again, this time 34-31, keeping their place at the top of the AFC North.

Green Bay struggled greatly without Aaron Rogers who missed the game because of COVID and him not being vaccinated. They went to Kansas City and struggled to generate any offence at all with Love as quarterback. It says a lot about how much Kansas City are struggling that Green Bay could have sneaked a win at the end, but instead the Chiefs hung on to win 13-7. Meanwhile the Cardinals fared much better without their star quarterback Kyler Murray, beating the 49ers 31-17 in San Francisco.

With the extra game this season and all teams still having a bye week, then the end of this week nine is halfway through the regular season, even if some teams have played eight games and others have played nine it is still a good time to assess how all the teams are looking.

The standings are as follows:

AFC EAST:

Buffalo Bills 5-3

New England Patriots 5-4

New York Jets 2-6

Miami Dolphins 2-7

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 6-2

Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3

Cleveland Browns 5-4

Cincinnati Bengals 5-4.

AFC South

Tennessee Titans 7-2

Indianapolis Colts 4-5

Jacksonville Jaguars 2-6

Houston Texans 1-8.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers 5-3

Las Vegas Raiders 5-3

Kansas City Chiefs 5-4

Denver Broncos 5-4

With four straight wins over top teams the Titans are currently looking like the best team in the AFC as well as having the best record. The loss of Derrick Henry for a few weeks at least is a massively significant one, but if their defence can keep playing as well as they did against the Rams in Los Angeles then they could be able to hold on to the number one seed spot and if Henry is fully fit for the play-offs, they could be AFC favourites going into those play-offs. The Bills still look the most likely to break out on a long winning streak, they seem to have plenty of talent but keep throwing in the occasional shocking loss. The Patriots are gradually moving into the play-off picture and I fully expect them to make the play-offs, probably as a wild card team and maybe cause and upset or two.

The North division looks set to be brutal throughout the season. Whilst the Ravens still look to just have the edge, I think Cleveland are the most likely team in the whole AFC to come out of the pack and have a deep play off run. Their combination of incredibly strong running game and an excellent pass rush on defence can cause problems for any team. The West division looks likely to be equally as scrappy, especially with teams having seemingly worked out how to play the Chiefs and that leading to a lack of confidence on their offence. I can see the Chargers holding on to win the title and if their defence can improve a little then they could be a genuine threat in the play-offs. If I had to pick the seven teams to make the play-offs at this point I would go for:

1. Titans

2. Bills

3. Ravens

4. Chargers

5. Browns

6. Patriots

7. Chiefs

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 6-2

Philadelphia Eagles 3-6

New York Giants 3-6

Washington Football Team 2-6

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 7-2

Minnesota Vikings 3-5

Chicago Bears 3-6

Detroit Lions 0-8

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-2

New Orleans Saints 5-3

Atlanta Falcons 4-4

Carolina Panthers 4-5

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 8-1

Los Angeles Rams 7-2

Seattle Seahawks 3-5

San Francisco 49ers 3-5.

The NFC looks more set in terms of who the genuine contenders for a Superbowl berth are. Cardinals, Rams, Cowboys, Buccaneers and Packers look to have separated themselves from the pack. I cannot see anyone currently with a losing record coming out of that pack, although maybe if the Vikings could start finding a way to win more of the close games they seem to be in every week then they could have a chance. I think the Saints will be most likely to be consistent enough to clinch one of the remaining play off berths, but I do not see them being able to beat one of those big five teams once they get there.

In the East, even if the Cowboys drop off a little in the second half of the season, I don’t think there is anybody behind them capable of pushing them close. The same could be said of the Packers in the North, although I think they are less likely than the Cowboys to have a blip. The Bucs still look every inch the classy team the were towards the end of last season, and with their offence looking even more explosive than last year they will still take some beating. I have a feeling though that the NFC Champions will come from whoever wins the West division between the Cardinals and the Rams. At the start of the season that division looked like it could be the sort of four way battle we are seeing in the AFC North and West. As it is turning out though the Cardinals and Rams have completely separated themselves from the Seahawks and 49ers. Whoever wins that division will have a good chance of being number one seed, leaving the other team as fifth seed even if they win just as many games as the winners. That could be a significant difference and one that decides who represents the NFC at the Superbowl.

Whilst selected five teams to make the play-offs from the NFC at this stage is easy, picking the next two is not so much, but this is what I will go for:

1. Rams

2. Buccaneers

3. Packers

4. Cowboys

5. Cardinals

6. Saints

7. Falcons

There might be some confirmation bias going on here, but I am sticking with the two teams that I picked out for my pre-season bets to be the number one seeds and I am dreaming of sitting back watching the Superbowl between the two of them, knowing I am going to win some money no matter who wins. If I can dream of a better world, then why oh why can’t my dream come true.