Why is a Russian Coup Unimaginable?

Vladimir Putin is huddled in his office. An enraged mob's yells reverberate along the corridor. It will only be a matter of seconds until they burst down his door. Putin's military has turned against him, and the people of the country have risen up; his dictatorship will come to an end. The door slams open. Men in military, citizens with homemade weapons, and young people filled with fury surge into Putin's office. What is the likelihood of this situation occurring? Have a look into this huge new narrative to see if the Russian people can ever depose Putin! 🔥👿🤬🔥

In his office, Vladimir Putin is afraid. An angry mob's yells can be heard echoing down the hallway. Before they get to his door and smash it down, it won't take them much longer. As a result of Putin's military's rebellion and the uprising of the nation's citizens, his dictatorship will come to an end. The door suddenly opened. Young people with anger in their eyes and men in uniforms mix as they enter Putin's office. Some people are holding makeshift weapons. The repressive leader covers his face while peeing in his pants. The populace of Russia is incensed. Putin will not survive the night. He will be literally torn apart by Russians. Many people around the world want to see this happen. Sadly, Vladimir Putin has secured his position and that of his government against a coup.

Without a doubt, there is a great deal of unrest in Russia, and many Russians would give anything to see Putin gone, but it is unlikely that this will happen anytime soon. In order to maintain his death grip on the Russian people, Putin has been taking precautions and planning for the worst for years. Vladimir Putin is a brutal dictator who is starving his own nation and holding a sizable portion of the world's natural resources, like gas and oil, at ransom in order to get what he wants. More and more Russians are growing dissatisfied with the way Putin is leading their nation as the conflict in Ukraine rages on. However, even if the majority of Russians desire a change in their government, the current political climate virtually eliminates the possibility of a revolution or coup.

Despite the fact that the Russian people are currently suffering more than at any other time in recent memory due to economic sanctions that have crippled the country's economy and the war effort that is consuming its industries and populace, the availability of food is dwindling. The majority of Russians are suffering from extreme poverty. Putin is still living a life of luxury and feeding his inferiority complex by using valuable national resources and the civilian population of the country to fight a war that he should never have started. Many Russians have fled the country and sought refuge in other nations as a result of the increased military enlistment as casualties rise. But eventually, the Russian populace will have had enough.

Any individual can only withstand so much before rebelling. Putin is already in trouble, but he doesn't seem overly concerned because he has put in place backup plans to ensure he never loses his position of power. Based on history and current affairs, there are two ways that Putin might be ousted from power. The first is a military takeover planned by senior military figures that aims to topple the current government and install a new one, a popular uprising in which the majority of Russian citizens band together to retake their nation from the oppressive government would be the second way to unseat Putin. It's interesting to note that coups frequently marked a change in power in a nation during the Cold War and the years that followed.

For instance, this is what occurred when Juan Perón was ousted from the Argentine government in the 1950s and Fidel Castro was exiled to Cuba. But since the 1990s, popular uprisings rather than coups have been the most common method of ousting autocrats from office. This was evident during the 2010 Arab Spring movement. Therefore, rather than a hostile military takeover, Putin may need to be more concerned about his own citizens endangering his authority. However, Vladimir Putin has made sure that neither of these challenges to his authority can materialize by structuring the Russian government and its institutions in a particular way. Nobody in Russia can stop him from acting, no matter how egotistical or foolish he is.

Internally, Putin and his closest allies have anticipated potential sources of threats to the regime and have put in place blockades to ensure that they can be neutralized before they have a chance to gain traction. There is a lot more to it than that. There is a lot more to it than that. Numerous dissidents have been arrested and killed as a result of these policies, which also oppress the largely silent majority. Putin is a genuine sociopath who poses a serious threat to society. Putin anticipated resistance and protests from specific groups of people in his country when Russia invaded Ukraine. Therefore, he simultaneously deployed his national security forces to deal with any anti-war sentiment that might emerge as he began his invasion. Police and military forces were prepared to repress the protestors as they took to the streets, terrorizing the populace.

Only news that was pro-war and pro-Putin was allowed to reach the Russian people as the state tightened its control over the media. To make Putin appear strong and to justify the sacrifices that the Russian people would have to make in order to win the war against Ukraine, false information about military progress as well as a number of other lies were also purposefully disseminated among the populace. Social media was either completely shut down or heavily censored in order to prevent the dissemination of any anti-government or anti-war information. These events all happened quickly, demonstrating how well-prepared Putin and his government were for any kind of internal challenge to their authority.

To prevent a coup or popular uprising in Russia, let's examine the details of Putin's strategy. It is astounding how far Putin and his allies will go to ensure that they will never have to answer to anyone else. Their strategies are brutal and horrifying. The only way for someone to be heard who wants to criticize the Russian government is to put their own life in danger. A military coup may appear to be the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin's authority because Russia appears to be concentrating on waging war, killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians in Ukraine while also suffering significant losses of their own. Considering that senior generals and military officials are being held accountable for Russia's wartime failures, a military coup is unquestionably more likely now than it was before the conflict.

The various systemic structures Putin has set up to keep the military under his control make a coup unlikely, despite any unrest within the military. Vladimir Putin has surrounded himself with fervently loyal men who receive rewards for making sure no threat to his authority ever materializes. Their lives are fulfilling as long as Vlad is content, and if he isn't, they can always place the blame elsewhere to keep the dictator happy. This is one of the factors contributing to Russia's current predicament with Ukraine. Although many military advisers advised Russia to attack Ukraine with all of its military might in order to secure a swift victory, Putin decided he didn't want to heed their advice. Military leaders were forced to accept Putin's wishes rather than rebel.

Russia suffered defeat after defeat when the invasion force entered Ukraine because they encountered much more resistance than they had anticipated. This infuriated Putin, but he wasn't willing to acknowledge his error, so others had to bear the consequences. Putin can be continually reassured that he is infallible, which is obviously untrue, by placing the blame on military leaders who are not a direct part of his inner circle. This brings up one of the main initiators of a coup and an event that Putin's government has prepared for. When generals and other military leaders are held accountable for an army's losses, it may lead to a feeling of unease among the troops. There wouldn't be much anyone could do to stop Putin from demoting and imprisoning someone at some point.

In fact, it has already occurred. Putin has already reprimanded senior FSB officials for failures in foreign intelligence. This includes Sergei Beseda, one of the top figures in Russian intelligence, who was held accountable for providing inaccurate information about Ukraine's military prowess. It's unclear what will happen to the individuals Putin holds responsible for the unsuccessful war effort, but he has killed many of his own people in the past, and it's not unusual for someone who Putin isn't happy with to vanish without a trace. Putin's capacity for assigning blame and eliminating anyone who he sees as a threat to his authority has contributed to the success of his efforts to thwart a military coup. However, other mechanisms have been put in place to guarantee that even field generals have few opportunities to amass power for themselves.

First of all, historically speaking, coups have generally been fairly bloodless. Most political leaders who want to destabilize an existing government will wait until they are confident that the majority of the armed forces are on their side before acting. It simply requires turning the guns on the departing regime and escorting them from their positions of authority once the coup has been carried out. When a military leader decides to take power with the support of the majority of the military personnel in the country, things rarely go well for the people who are being overthrown by the coup. The issue with Russia is that no one military leader has sufficient authority or control to carry out a coup. Putin intended it to happen exactly this way.

To begin with, counterintelligence officers have been strategically placed throughout the government by Vladimir Putin and his allies, so they are always informed of what is happening. Because they don't know who to trust or who will tip them off to Putin, military leaders planning a coup struggle with this issue. It is very challenging to plan the overthrow of a government when your best friend or closest ally might be a Putin agent. This has bred suspicion among military leaders and prevented any one person from amassing a large following or mobilizing others to support them. Putin has also ensured that the military itself does not have an excessive amount of power. For instance, various security organizations are in charge of managing the suppression of information and preserving law and order among Russians.

This indicates that while military leaders may have some influence over their troops in the field, they are unlikely to have many allies or frequent interactions with the heads of other agencies when they are at home. In addition to separating the military from domestic affairs, Putin has organized many state agencies so that the only channels of communication between them are his closest allies. The Russian National Guard, or Rosgvardiya, which was established in 2016, is a prime example of this. This organization was created to further demarcate the military from internal law enforcement and police services. Viktor Zolotov, the head of the Rosgvardiya and a man who is insanely devoted to Putin and treats him as a deity, is in charge of the organization.

Along with working closely with the Russian intelligence service, this agency is in charge of border security and counterterrorism. This implies that one of the Rosgvardiya's duties is to keep an eye out for any coups or insurrections that might be forming within the military and immediately inform Putin of them. It's interesting to note that not even the internal security force is a unified entity. These branches were further divided under Putin's rule into the FSB, GRU, and SVR to ensure that there could never be a National Guard coup. The Federal Protection Services, a final division of the Russian National Guard, is comparable to the American Secret Service. Vladimir Putin must be shielded from all dangers by these men and women.

More than 20,000 officers make up the Federal Protection Service. The Secret Service typically has around 5,000 agents, so to put this in perspective, Putin's personal security force is roughly four times larger than that of the United States. With this many agents, Putin can make sure he is always surrounded by devoted, highly skilled military personnel who would give their lives for him. This offers Putin a layer of protection from assassination attempts and small uprisings. All of this indicates that no one individual or branch of the armed forces possesses sufficient power to overthrow the government. Each branch of the military has checks and balances in place that makes organizing a coup nearly impossible. Even if every single military member could be persuaded to rebel against Putin, there are a number of groups that could sabotage the movement and remove anyone who believed they could unseat the Russian president.

If anyone attempted to organize a coup, they would not only need to convince their own branch of the Russian military to unite behind them but also win over the support of numerous other organizations, all of which are governed by Putin's allies. Coordination of a coup in Russia is nearly impossible due to the structure of power and the intelligence agents that are hidden within each organization and branch of the Russian military. It would only be a matter of time before someone informed Putin of the scheme, at which point everyone involved would be put to death. Putin's careful and methodical distribution of power among the institutions in Russia ensures that no one person can amass an excessive amount of favor.

To ensure his regime is shielded from a coup, he has taken care to sow distrust among military leaders in the various branches. Because the tyrannical dictator constantly fears being overthrown by someone else, this was done. By making sure that only Putin has access to the country's keys, it ensures that the current Russian administration won't be changing anytime soon. The second method for ousting Vladimir Putin from office is brought up by this. Perhaps the Russian people will be able to remove the current dictator from office, as they did in the Middle East. But just as they did in order to prevent a military takeover, Putin and his closest allies have made sure that the Russian people are oppressed to the point where a large-scale revolution is simply not possible.

Russians have grown increasingly dissatisfied with Putin's leadership since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The lives of the Russian people have gotten harder and harder with each defeat and the protracted nature of what was meant to be a swift and decisive military operation. Russian citizens are suffering the most as more and more sanctions are imposed on the nation. Food is getting more difficult to find, and the economy is failing. Many have left the country as a result of this, but protests are also brewing in the nation's largest cities. Interestingly, these developments are starting to resemble the two significant uprisings that took place in Russia during the 20th century more and more. The Duma, Russia's legislative body, was established as a result of the first uprising against the czars in 1905.

The Soviet Union was established as a result of the Second World War in 1917. Both revolutions were the result of popular uprisings and occurred while Russia was fighting unpopular wars with the populace. Today's events are starting to resemble these earlier Russian revolutions more and more. Contrary to the uprisings at the start of the 20th century, Putin has backup plans in place to ensure that any rebellion can be quickly put down. There is no denying that protests have been erupting all over the nation, which may suggest that Putin's strategy has flaws. On the internet and in public, a lot of people are expressing their displeasure. But it's unlikely to be sufficient to spark a full-fledged revolution. According to some experts, a popular uprising requires roughly 3.5% of a nation's population to engage in protests against the government.

This requires about 5 million Russians to publicly express their dissatisfaction with the manner in which Vladimir Putin and his government are governing the nation. The number of protesters at the moment is a far cry from that number. The Russian National Guard and other law enforcement agencies are ruthlessly disbanding any organized protests as people take to the streets. Since most forms of protest in Russia are prohibited, the government openly supports these strategies used to prevent people from protesting, even peacefully. And because the Russian government controls all media and communication in the nation, the populace is forced to consume pro-Putin misinformation about how things are progressing in the nation.

People only see news that portrays Putin and his government as heroes and the West as monsters when they read the newspaper, watch television, or browse the internet. Any freethinking Russians trying to gain support for their cause will find it very challenging due to the misinformation campaigns and suppression of the truth. Additionally, it has been claimed that since the Arab Spring movement's peak in 2013, Putin and his government have been enacting laws to safeguard them from any future uprisings of a similar nature. The moment Putin witnessed another autocrat overthrown so close to his own borders; he began formulating plans to prevent a popular uprising in Russia. Anyone who spoke out against the Russian government's authority had been arrested prior to the Arab Spring.

Social activists and anti-Putin organizations in Russia started to become less prevalent after the Arab Spring movement. This was due to the government's increasing arrests of dissidents and, according to some reports, increased use of torture and executions of those who posed a threat to the status quo. Joining a general uprising was difficult to sell due to the very real risk of suffering torture or execution at the hands of the Russian government. Millions of ordinary people must be persuaded that the risk of death is worthwhile in order for the instigators of such an uprising to overthrow Putin. Anyone seeking change in Russia almost certainly knows at least one person who has been detained, severely beaten, or tortured by the authorities. Many people are terrified, and rightly so, at the thought that you or your family might become their next victims because you speak out against Putin.

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