This is Why We Are in This Situation!

When disasters happen, it's typical for politicians to argue that the crisis is so severe that no one could have predicted it. Yet this argument does not apply in the case of Covid-19.

It is true that no one can predict certain things. We cannot predict what form viruses will take or where they will come from. But, there is a global health security system designed to detect and respond to the threat of a catastrophic pandemic.

Global health security rests on the fact that health crises can become a threat to people, states, peace and security worldwide.

Those working in global health protection have been talking about the danger of a pandemic for decades. Those warnings have been ignored.

At the heart of pandemic, preparation is the World Health Organization (WHO). And Its primary global health protection framework, the International Health Regulations (IHR).

Member states are required to "detect, evaluate, and report" new and emerging outbreaks.

They should focus on some basic points:

• rapidly recognise an outbreak;
• exchange information;
• follow specific public health protocols to contain it;
• Prevent an outbreak from becoming a pandemic.

In response to previous outbreaks, the regulation was amended and improved.

China's deliberate cover-up of the new coronavirus is nothing new. States often do not identify or report cases. That is not because "they wanna kill us all" or any other crazy reason—the fear the damaging effect on their economies, international relations, and social wellbeing.

The SARS outbreak, which caused 774 deaths in 2002-04, was a turning point in addressing compliance issues. As a result, in 2005, IHR was revised.

One of the key points required countries to notify WHO of all events that may constitute an international public health emergency. Nations must respond to requests for verification of these events information.

Since IHR (2005) was implemented H1N1 pandemic influenza (2009), wild poliovirus (2014), Ebola virus disease (2014), and Zika virus (2016) have been declared public health emergencies of international concern.

The WHO's chief director makes such a statement. That is to warn the world's population and leaders, so they take the emergency seriously and plan to allocate funds for containment.

After the Ebola outbreak, in 2013, which caused 11,323 deaths in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, systems were once again reinforced.

Ebola was a clear reminder that global health security holds on the strength of disease monitoring system. That sparked a large investment in disease monitoring. That meant laboratories increased technological capacity and training in low-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

Britain is no spectator of all this.

The UK research institutions, Public Health England, the Department for International Development and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, played an active role in promoting disease prevention and global health security.

That is the system to identify and respond to global health security threats. So, why are we in this horrible situation we find ourselves? It is quite simple. There has been a lack of government spending to prepare for a pandemic. Nation-states spend only during or after a major outbreak. It is always hard to convince political leaders and the public to plan and get ready for something they cannot see.

The UK went through an era of austerity and significant cuts. "Money doesn't grow on trees", they told us. Populist rhetoric convinced the public that we should cut funds to foreign aids. Non-state organisations like WHO and NGOs are constantly under attack, undermined and criminalised.

Get back control, America first and other non-sense turned arrogance and selfishness into virtue. Being so self-centred made us refuse to see it coming even when so close to home. Would you believe that something a "little more than the flu"?

The true state of the country and its services after years of funding starvation is exposed.

We can be complacent about global health security. We see epidemics as something that happens in other nations. That translates in deficiency of investments in pandemic preparation and disinvestment.

One of Donald Trump's first acts as president was to scrap funding from the (NIH) National Institutes of Health and the (CDC) Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. Two key pillars of global health security not only in the United States but around the world. Complacency shows a total lack of understanding of the danger. Pandemics are bigger threats to our wellbeing than wars, terrorism, and financial crisis.

Trump's blindness to the risks, together with the blame-shifting over Covid-19 undermine security and international relations.

Effective management and control of pandemics relies on international cooperation and shared control in global institutions.

Countries start following advice and start working together only when it is too late.

The situation is now critical everywhere in the world. Perhaps, it is not bad enough. They are still searching for someone else to blame at this stage: another nation, the WHO, bats... The governments' dismissal of expertise, growing protectionism, and a lack of cooperation, all amplify the problem.

Biosecurity dilemma

Pandemic preparation and response rest on what professor Christian Enemark, calls "biosecurity dilemmas".

The major biosecurity dilemma is the issue of informing the WHO and taking immediate action, putting basic social freedoms and economic security at risk.

The public health security requires prompt actions. Speed is critical. The political resolution is much more complicated. Act too early, and the public think you're reducing their freedom and risking their economic security for a "common flu".

Act late, and you take a gamble with people's lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing. And broader economic, political, and social crises. While monitoring and preparation systems ease these decisions, they ultimately depend on politicians ability to understand global health security. For what we see happening around the world, not many do.