The Resilience of Boris Johnson

Ask any person how Boris Johnson is still in power in the UK, and one of your top answers will likely be "I have no idea how he is Prime Minister". He has manged to survive scandal after scandal, even when the opposition has, for one of the first times in recent memory, been extremely effective in attacking him. And yet, the Conservatives seem extremely reluctant to actually dispose of the once clownish PM. So, what are the main three reasons that explain how is he still in power?

1. Who would lead them afterwards?

One of the reasons for the party keeping Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is merely one of not having a clear idea who would take over in the event of dumping the former mayor of London. There is simply too much choice of a not very good selection of people, and not enough actual quality within the party to feel confident about choosing a replacement.

There is of course, the three top ministers who would be natural contenders due to their exalted positions. The people in these positions however, may not be the best choices for the current circumstances the country finds itself in.

We have Rishi Sunak, the current chancellor. In the middle of the Covid crisis, he seemed like just the man to take over after Boris left office. But he has since suffered problem after problem. He is accused of not being a proper conservative, especially after his "definitely not a windfall tax" energy profits levy. He was also involved in Partygate, receiving his own fixed penalty notice, and has also been involved in the non-dom status of his millionaire wife, with them now taking a place on the official UK rich list published by The Times. All of this has done huge damage to his standing in the party, and whether or not the public will, after rising household costs, take kindly to having a millionaire prime minister.

In the foreign office, we have Liz Truss. She has a low profile, even for a foreign secretary in a time of domestic focus, and seems to spend most of her time provoking Russia in speeches. She likely does not have enough standing within her own party to be PM, and seems to be in the post simply because no one else could be found.

And in the home office, there is Priti Patel. She may well be seen as someone who is such a jump to the right of the party, being someone widely seen as a Thatcherite, that she would lose the election based on being too right wing. We also can't forget that she had her own scandal over bullying in her own department, and she is beginning to face a lot of criticism over her project to deport people to Rwanda.

And this hasn't even covered the other possibilities of Michael Gove making a comeback, or possibly even Theresa May coming back for Strong and Stable Part Two.

2: Self-Preservation

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the PM has been constantly saying that to change during this crisis would be dangerous and create a disunited front in Europe. It is one of a number of excuses he has given not to resign in his own way.

Britain changed its PM twice during WW2 (in 1940, and in July 1945) without it causing difficulties. During economic hardship, the PM of the day has left as well. After Suez, Eden resigned as well. A crisis is not in itself a reason for a prime minister to remain in power. But by refusing to contradict him, the Tories have steered themselves into a political version of a stone age mammoth trap.

If they turn on him now, they will be seen as saving themselves and their own political careers. This will obviously look badly on them, given that they had so vigorously supported him just a month ago. Similarly, the circumstances are such that, by continuing to support him, the party are just keeping themselves in power because they are sure to lose it soon. Both paths are terrible for media optics, and the party is in a state of inertia, unable and unwilling to make a decision.

3. It won't matter anyway

At the end of the day however, the Conservatives are walking the slow and sure path to electoral defeat. They have a PM whose popular reputation has been destroyed by the partygate scandal, alongside scandal for the man who was the favourite to replace him. The PM and the chancellor have bungled the response to massive inflation and rising cost of living, U-turning constantly whilst inflation climbs. Even if the party replaced the PM, the party will likely end up losing the next election, regardless of whether or not they kick him out, or let him fall on his own sword.

The next election will see the PM gone if he does not go before then, and the Conservative Party will come out with a greatly damaged reputation, both in terms of economic capability and in that of morality. The best move for the party is a painful one, but it is simply to allow them to collapse at the election, and allow the reputational damage to be pushed onto Boris Johnson, who, if polling is to be believed, will not even have the dignity of resigning his seat. He is currently polled to be losing his seat.