Russian army to mobilize 300,000 people for battle

Recently, the situation in Russia has become very complicated, with anti-war marches in more than 10 cities in the country.

Despite the rise of anti-war voices in the country, the Russian military and President Putin's determination to carry out domestic mobilization is unlikely to change. Russia has now launched a partial mobilization, with 300,000 newly recruited Russian soldiers taking up arms and heading to the front, the vast majority of whom are reservists.

And, at the same time that Russian soldiers are being trained to go to the front line, the referendum on Russia's accession to the four states occupied by Russia in Ukraine has already begun.

So what impact will this series of events have on the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Will the general mobilization of Russian troops go smoothly? The answer is: Russia will not carry out general mobilization, and the future of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be more complicated.

The specific analysis of the situation has the following points.

First, the referendum on the accession of 4 states to Russia has changed the nature of Russia's special military operations in certain ways that are not favorable to Russia. In other words, the referendum on Russian accession in four states was done somewhat prematurely. This effect will stimulate the anti-war will of some people, thus depriving the Russian authorities of general mobilization of part of its popular base.

For a country to conduct a general mobilization for war, it needs to have an extremely strong public opinion base. During World War II, the German invasion of Soviet soil and the burning and looting in the Soviet Union inspired strong discontent among the Soviet public. Under the leadership of the Soviet government and Stalin, it took only one month for the Soviet Union to replenish 5 million troops to the front, and millions of party members and legionnaires took up arms to defend the motherland. The famous Soviet song "Song of the Communist Youth" is a true reflection of how the Soviet military and people defended the motherland with their blood.

However, the time has changed for the Russian authorities to revive the popular mobilization of the Soviet era. And the Russian authorities bear some responsibility for creating this situation.

What is the Russian definition of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? A special military operation against fascism. Since it was against fascism, the goal of the Russian forces was to eliminate the fascist forces of the Ukrainian army and to keep Ukraine at a minimum level of neutrality in the confrontation between Russia and the West. At first, the Russian army also centered around this goal of anti-fascism. The Russian army eliminated the Azov battalion and other armed forces, which indeed dealt a heavy blow to the arrogance of the fascists.

However, just at the critical moment when the Russian army was preparing to mobilize 300,000 people to further destroy the fascist forces of the U.S. Army, Russia staged a referendum on accession to Russia in U.S. territory. What does this mean? The referendum means that Russia wants to claim the four eastern regions of Ukraine as its own. This is right or wrong, but it is completely contrary to the purpose of the special military operation launched by the Russian army. Russia could in fact referendum on the 4 states, but it would be better to wait until the general situation of the war is settled. A referendum now would indeed easily leave the West with evidence of "Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory". Russia needs to adjust its strategy of ruling the four regions it has already occupied by keeping them nominally out of Russian territory for the time being, but by creating independent republics, such as the Donetsk and Lufthansa republics, so that the four regions can remain "independent states" fighting alongside Russian troops. This is much more tactical than a direct public commitment to Russia.

But it is also this move to incorporate the four states into Russian territory, coupled with the long-term nature of the conflict, that has caused some Russian people to lose faith in the war. And all the Russian army can do is speed up the war process as soon as possible and not let it drag on longer and longer. Once this public opinion spreads out it will cause the general mobilization of the Russian army nationwide to be impossible to implement.

To be fair, although the majority of the population still supports the Russian army, this support is no longer comparable to the national mobilization during World War II.

Second, Russia will escalate special military operations in the future, but will not implement a general mobilization.

Russia may escalate special military operations because, as described earlier, the Russian domestic population has not reached an absolute unified proposal for war, which is completely different from the Soviet-German War, when the Soviet Union faced a life-or-death situation.

So, what will be the next step in the war?

Russia is eager to annex 4 states to expand its territory in addition to the subjective, its other reason is soldiers. The 4 East Ukrainian states all have the soldiers that the Russian army needs, and as long as the 4 East Ukrainian states come in on Russian soil, once the U.S. army attacks the 4 East Ukrainian states, then the Russian army can declare the U.S. army's actions as aggression, and the 4 East Ukrainian states are extremely antipathetic to the U.S. authorities.

In this way, the way the 4 East Ukrainian states participate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict changes, changing the original Gdansk, and Donetsk can only send troops to follow the Russian army in the name of the republic. These two states are allies of the Russian army, not directly under its command. But once the four regions, including Lufthansa and Donetsk, are incorporated into Russian territory, the armies of these four regions can be directly integrated into the Russian army to fight. At that time, the Russian army will be able to directly participate in the conscription operations in the former 4 regions of Eastern Ukraine, replenish the Russian army, and then go directly to the front, thus reducing the pressure of conscription in more than 80 regions in the Russian rear.

Now, the main task of the Russian army is to stabilize the defense line, at all costs, and be ready to crush the counterattack of the Ukrainian army. The hostility of the Ukrainian army toward the Russian army will further deepen due to the incorporation of the four eastern Ukrainian states into Russia. With the arrival of 300,000 Russian troops on the front line, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is bound to break out in the next few months with more fierce fighting.