Russia Ukraine Conflict

Vladimir Putin is trapped in his world, and Western spies think there is no limit to misery. Spies have long wanted to know what is going on in President Putin's head and what his motives are. So that his aims and objectives can be understood in advance.

This desire has intensified in the minds of spies since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Detectives want to know how Putin will react if pressure is created on him.

Putin is the sole decision-maker

The plan to invade Ukraine had previously been conceived by Western spies from various sources. But many who are led by Russia did not know about these plans. What the Russian leader will do next is the main concern of the spies now. But the work is very difficult.

"The key problem is to predict the Kremlin's future. President Putin makes all the decisions himself," said John Cipher. He was the head of Russia's operations department while working for the CIA. Although Putin's public speeches provide insights into his views, it is a big challenge to know how to do them.

Sir John Sawyer was the head of the British intelligence service SIS. "In a country like Russia where it is difficult to gather intelligence, it is even more difficult to find out what the Russian president is thinking," he said. Not only that, many high-ranking officials in the vicinity do not even know what is going to happen next.

How can this war end?

Ukraine is a democracy of 44 million people. By invading this country, Putin disturbed the whole of Europe. At the time of the attack, he claimed that Ukraine, seeking to be closer to the West, was a major threat to Russia's security.

But after more than two months of bombings, countless deaths, and displacement of millions, the question remains. What is the main purpose of Russia behind the war? What does Russia want? Is there any way out of this extreme crisis?

Why did Vladimir Putin attack?

At the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president may have thought that he could easily win the war. But his thinking was proved wrong. He did not even want to call it a war. He named the operation 'Special Military Operations'. One thing is clear, however, that he considers it an important moment in Russia's history.

Sergei Naraskin, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service, said Russia's position in the world was now at risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for a military coup to establish a government loyal to them. So Ukraine does not show any interest in joining the Western military alliance NATO in the future.

In a public speech, Putin said his goal was to disarm Ukraine. He also demanded that the people of Ukraine be freed from the genocide and torture that the Ukrainian government has been carrying out for eight long years. "It is not our intention to occupy Ukraine," he said. We do not want to force anyone to remove'.

But the real situation is different. There is no evidence of Nazi or genocide in Ukraine. Instead, Russia is brutally attacking Ukrainian cities and towns. The people of Ukraine are united in their opposition to the Russian occupation. Despite the bombings and attacks, Russia has agreed to peace talks, suggesting they no longer want to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Russia now wants to see Ukraine as a neutral country.

Why does Russia want to see Ukraine as a neutral country?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine gained independence in 1991. Since then, Ukraine has forged closer ties with the West. In particular, Ukraine has developed good relations with the European Union and NATO. But Vladimir Putin wants to change that. He described the collapse of the Soviet Union as "historically Russia's isolation".

He claims that the people of Russia and 'Ukraine are one nation'. He denies the history of Ukraine, saying "Ukraine has never been a real estate." In 2013, pro-Russian President Yanukovych pressured Ukraine not to sign a trade agreement with the European Union. Yanukovych's downfall was followed by public outcry over his withdrawal from the agreement next year.

In the same year, in retaliation, Russia annexed the southern part of Ukraine, Crimea. Russia also supports separatists in two areas in the east. Since then, separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces for nearly eight years. More than 14,000 people died in the fighting Although the Minsk Peace Accords were signed in 2015, they were not implemented.

But before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin violated the peace agreement by recognizing the rebel-held territory as an independent state. While sending troops, he accused NATO of "threatening our" historic future as a nation."

Is there any way out of the war?

Mikhailo Podyalak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, believes that a ceasefire will be effective. Because the Russian troops are not able to move forward and they are stuck in the current position. Both sides spoke positively in the talks. Podyalak also said that Vladimir Putin has been flexible in his demands.

At the start of the Ukraine campaign, Putin wanted Crimea to be recognized as part of Russia and to amend the constitution to guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO or the European Union. At the same time, the two rebel-held areas were recognized as independent states. But neither side has yet decided on the two areas controlled by the Russian-backed rebels. But the two sides will be able to discuss this later.

Russia has said it will not establish a puppet government in Ukraine like Belarus. At the outset of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, "Enemies have targeted me and my family." Neutral countries such as Austria and Sweden. Russia now wants to see Ukraine as a neutral and unarmed country. Both countries are members of the European Union. But these two countries are not members of NATO.

But even though Sweden is not a NATO member, there are regular military exercises. Not everyone believes that Russia is negotiating freely. Therefore, the French Foreign Minister said that Russia must declare a ceasefire first. Because attacks and negotiations cannot go on at the same time.

What does Ukraine want?

Ukraine has made its statement clear. Ukraine wants to withdraw Russian troops from its territory and declare a ceasefire, says Mikhail Podyalak. At the same time, legal guarantees must be provided for Ukraine's security, and if Ukraine is attacked, they will resist and stand up for Ukraine.

Mark Weller, a former UN mediation expert, and professor of international law said Russia would return to pre-war levels, not just in Ukraine, but in Western nations. They do not want to be victims of the Russian Cold War. Ukraine has also moved away from its position. "Ukraine now understands that NATO will no longer be able to part with it, and this is the truth and this truth must be accepted," he said.

"We are preparing the documents in such a way that the president can sign the agreement and negotiate further. We believe it will be fruitful because it is the only way to end the war," Mr. Podyalak said.

What will be the agreement between NATO and Putin?

Vladimir Putin has clearly expressed his displeasure with the West and the military alliance NATO. Putin may negotiate with Ukraine. But he thinks Western nations want to divide Russia and eventually destroy it. At the start of the military offensive, he said, NATO should return to its pre-1997 state and reverse its expansion into Eastern Europe. At the same time, all military installations and troops must be withdrawn from the countries that joined NATO after 1997.

Heavy weapons cannot be deployed on and around the Russian border. And it will be considered the Baltic Sea, Europe and Eastern Europe. "The Western promised that, in 1990, it would not expand, but it has broken that promise," Putin said. Mikhail Gorbachev, the then Soviet leader, was promised such a thing when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Before the war began, Russia demanded that the United States should move all of its nuclear weapons inside the country. The United States has also offered to discuss how to limit short- and medium-range missiles. An agreement was also to be reached on intercontinental ballistic missiles. International relations analysts believe that a new war of nerves could break out. They believe that the Westerns should be prepared to deal with all possible risks.

What are the consequences for Russia?

All European countries have strongly condemned and reacted to the Ukraine attack. Many countries are helping with weapons. Vladimir Putin may not have imagined that. Putin knew that NATO would never come to Ukraine. But all allies, including the United States, have cornered Russia with one sanction after another. Various financial institutions have suspended their activities in Russia. As a result, the Fascist economy has had a dramatic impact. And President Putin is angry at this.

The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union are trying to contain Russia's economy. Russia's central bank assets have been seized. Many Russian banks have cut off international transactions from Swift.

The United States has imposed sanctions on Russia over its oil and gas. The European Union has already set its target of reducing gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year. The United Kingdom wants to end its dependence on oil imports from Russia by 2022. Germany suspends approval of Russia's Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. In addition, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Russian aircraft. Russia has imposed sanctions on several individuals, including President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

President Putin himself knows that a peace deal is not enough to end sanctions. Rather, he is taking action against those who oppose the war inside Russia. About 15,000 anti-war protesters have been arrested. All independent media seem to be playing a silent role. Putin now has no opposition. Those who were there have either fled abroad or are imprisoned in various cases "The Russian people have always known how to distinguish between patriots and traitors," said President Putin.

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