Netanyahu: Will He, Won't He?

The IDF stand on the threshold of entering Rafah, the last major city in Gaza. This city is right up against the border with Egypt. Egypt has stationed tanks and armoured personnel carriers on its side of the border. Just in case, Gazans including Hamas leaders and operatives, try to flee into Egypt. Also, just in case, the Israelis pursue their prey across the border.

Egypt has threatened to suspend the decades-old peace treaty between it and Israel, should the IDF attack Rafah, Egypt has called on the Israelis not to go ahead with the plan, as have the UK and US (allegedly).

Rumours are doing the rounds that Hamas Leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar hadn't expected Israel to act with such ferocity. This according to a friend of the Hamas Leader, is believed to be behind the 7 Oct attack. Israel has declared it wants this man 'dead or alive', much like the US did with Bin Laden. Whatever the rights or wrongs of the Israeli action, how did Sinwar think Israel would react? Given the anger after the 7 Oct outrage, it should have been obvious that Israel would react. It's also probable that Netanyahu saw this as a possible ruse to save his political skin. Also, those far-right elements in the administration saw this as a chance to hammer Hamas and Gaza once and for all.

Rafah right now is allegedly crisscrossed with tunnels where Hamas can get weapons through. It is also, suspected that Hamas fighters and leaders (including Yahya Sinwar) are holding out. The IDF from a military point of view has a valid point to go in and finish off Hamas (if it can). However, above ground are thousands of Palestinian refugees who have fled the fighting in other areas of Gaza. If the IDF does go in, thousands of refugees will die on top of the thousands already dead. More IDF soldiers will also die on top of the 300 or so already dead. The question has to be asked then, will Israel go in?

Israel has ignored calls for a ceasefire, Israel has rejected calls to be mindful of the civilian population, and has ignored the calls by the UN Court to mind what it is doing, so why would Israel not go into Rafah?

Isrsel's mantra has been nothing but a total victory over Hamas. Israel has been attacking targets around the edges of Rafah, but as yet, there have been no full-scale land incursions into the city. It is reckoned, Israel will need a huger force to go in and deal with Hamas's alleged four remaining battalions. So the attack may not happen yet until the IDF has enough forces on the ground. No doubt, Hamas, will fight and resist with everything that it has. Hamas has proved a deadly and fierce opponent for Israel. Indeed, for all Israel's destructiveness in Gaza, Hamas is still operating in some quarters. Netanyahu has said that the IDF will evacuate Palestinian civilians from Rafah, but that remains to be seen.

Netanyahu knows that as long as he can keep this war going, he is safe. Safe from appearing in court on alleged corruption charges. However, if for some reason Netanyahu cancels the attack, what then? It could be that Netanyahu says to his domestic audience, I listened to benefactors like the US. However, Netanyahu is not stupid, he has not been a political survivor for nothing. He is wiley and just when the chips are down, he comes back. Will Netanyahu survive the time when this war ends (as it must) or will he finally get what's coming to him?