Make or Break for Burnham?

Greater Manchester Mayor needed a by-election to get reelected back to parliament, to stand against the incumbent Labour Leader and Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer. Andy has stood before to become Labour leader but lost out to Jeremy Corbyn. Burnham, a popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election by the Labour Party. Now things have changed somewhat in the fortunes of both Burnham and Starmer.

Labour, as expected, was trounced by parties like Reform UK and the Green Party in the recent local elections. This has brought much grumbling in the Labour Party. Some wish to stand behind Sir Keir as they point to the fact that things may just be turning around for the better in this country. Others think Sir Keir, despite winning a landslide in 2024, see him as a liability and a lame-duck prime minister.

A fellow Labour MP and friend of Andy Burnham has stood aside so that Andy can now contest the Makerfield constituency. However, there is no guarantee that Burnham will be elected as the MP for the area. Should Burnham lose to Reform or anyone else, for that matter, what will he do? Presumably, he will have to resign as mayor, and so if he loses the by-election, his political career will be as good as over. On the other hand, if he becomes the new MP, then he will be in a position to throw his hat in the ring to challenge Starmer. Even then, there is no guarantee that, even as an elected representative of Makerfield, he will beat Starmer. That said, Andy remains popular in the Labour Party, and he may succeed in ousting Starmer and becoming Prime Minister.

In Makerfield, voters interviewed by the I-newspaper said they had split loyalties. Many are Reform UK voters, but they said they might just vote for Burnham with the idea that he can oust Starmer. John Carter (not the Earth resident from Mars or Barsoom in Edgar Rice Burroughs' books and movie), a Makerfield resident, described himself as a Reform UK voter.

However, he said he would be prepared to give Andy a chance. Particularly if he had policies that matched what Reform wanted. Andy could be described as soft left, so would he really embody the policies of a right-wing party?

Strange things happen in politics, look at Sir Keir. He seems to want to appease everyone, and with that, ends up appeasing no one. One minute, he's describing the UK as a country full of strangers that Native Brits no longer recognise. Then he says Britain is a successful multi-cultural country. So Starmer is a weather vane in the wind, blowing one way or the other to many.

John Carter admitted he had voted for Reform UK in the recent local elections. Reform UK captured 24 of 25 seats in the nearby town of Wigan. Reform, according to polling, is in a comfortable position to win Makerfield. Going back Mr. Carter's proclamations about Andy Burnham, he said, "I'm not voting for a person, I'm voting for policies and what those policies will do for the area". So Mr. Carter is an example of a Reform UK voter who could be persuaded to lend Andy his vote. Mrs. Carter, however, would definitely back Andy Burnham as she feels, as a northerner, he would understand the area's problems.

According to one poll, 13% of people are happy Mr. Starmer. And at the beginning of the year, Mr. Starmer's approval rating actually improved somewhat. However, again, according to this poll. Sir Keir Starmer's popularity has remained "historically low".

Andy Burnham, according to another poll, remains the most popular candidate to replace Sir Keir. Popular both with Labour members and the general public. Burnham is well ahead of his potential rivals like Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, and Ed Miliband.