Labour: 99% Sure of Winning.

If a general election were called now, Labour is 99% likely to win it. This is according to Poll Guru John Curtis. This will be music to the ears of Keir Starmer. However, it will be sounding alarm bells to Sunak. Hence this is why Rishi Sunak has chosen to hold a general election in the autumn. Starmer said Rishi has "Bottled it"!

Sunak wouldn't be the first Prime Minister to 'bottle it'. Gordon Brown famously refused to call a general election when the polls were against him. When he did call a general election, the polls were correct. Mr. Brown lost the 2010 general election and the rest, as they say, is history. However, polls do not get it right all the time. It depends on the kind of people the polls interview, but on the whole, they try to represent a broad spectrum of society.

Sunak like Brown before him knows it would be political suicide to have an election now. Why would any political leader in their right mind go to the country for a mandate when polls are against them? Maybe, Brown, like Sunak now, was/is hoping for the winds of political change to blow in his favour. This may or may not happen, however, Sunak cannot keep hanging on for that political miracle ad infinitum. He cannot keep the opposition parties waiting forever neither the public. So, whether Sunak's political fortunes change or not, there will be a general election at some point.

Sir Keir Starmer and his Party, however, are remaining grounded. They are not taking the general election as a done deal despite polls predicting it. Every so often, Labour holds pep talks not to be complacent. In other words, not be so arrogant as to assume that they will form the next government. There will be those in the Labour Party and other opposition parties who cannot wait for the election. Hopefully, though, they will not be so arrogant as to assume it is a done deal. "Pride comes before a fall" as it says in the Bible and that is why it is better to be humble and realistic. Then if the polls confirm your victory as in Labour's case, that's the time to be thankful!

No smears or slip-ups have hit the Labour Party. Unless you count Angela Rayner's tax investigation but hopefully that will blow over. For her part, Ms. Rayner claims innocence and let us hope this is the case. Ms. Rayner is an asset to the Labour Party. Coming from humble beginnings Angela Rayner is working-class stock. As Sir Keir Starmer is.

In 1997 ITV's political editor spoke to Cheir Blair asking when the Blairs would be moving into Downing Street. The question though may have been barbed to catch out Cherie Blair. The question asked "When" the Blairs would be moving into 10 Downing Street and not "If"! Mrs. Blair's answer seemed to fall into the trap as it appeared her answer was taking the "when" reply and not the "If". Hence, why Starmer has kept his troops tight in not assuming they have a divine right to replace the Tories. As Starmer has conceded, it will be the delight of his life, if the people give him a mandate to replace Sunak. Going back to 1997 Cherie's comments did not affect the population's voting intentions. The Blairs did indeed enter 10 Downing Street with a thumping majority.

One incident the press tried to ensnare Keir and Angela over was the so-called 'Beergate'. During lockdown a photographer allegedly caught Sir Keir swigging a bottle of beer when he and Angela were attending a gathering. The right-wing press tried to compare it to Boris' 'Partygate'. However, unlike Boris, the local police looked into 'Beergate' and dismissed it. Alternatively, 'Partygate' stuck and it's what did for him and his administration.

So short of some change in Tory political fortunes between now and a possible Autumn general election, the polls have Labour winning the next general election.