Is America On The Brink of a Second Civil War?

“What is happening in [America] now, is exactly what was happening in Bosnia before the [civil] war…. Hate on this level can only be sustained so long before actually becoming a civil war.” These were the words Bill Maher, comedian and host of Real Time with Bill Maher, heard from his Bosnian driver enroute to an event in Pennsylvania.

Mr Maher recounted this in his latest renowned editorial “New Rules” where he insisted that the way to halt America’s descent into civil war was to stop hating each other. To be sure, Mr Maher is not the first in America to ring the alarm bells about the possibility of a second civil war. But the 6 January terrorist attack on the Capitol was America’s eureka moment. That day the possibility of a second civil war became a tangible reality and not a mere abstract idea.

This made your author ponder: Is America descending into a second civil war?

Civil War

Civil wars are usually wars between the State and one or more organized ethnic groups. However, they can — and more often do — occur between one or more organized ethnic groups; sometimes the State is dominated by one ethnic group. As such most civil wars are studied through the lens of conflict between ethnic groups. What is considered ethnic identity and by extension an ethnic group is subject to a lot of debate. However, Smith, a scholar, defined an ethnic group as a “named human population with a myth of common ancestry, shared memories, and cultural elements; a link with a historic territory or homeland; and a measure of solidarity.” [1] But these are not hard-coded elements and ethnicity can sometimes be “constructed” through and around additional elements like political or social views.

This is the case with Republicans and Democrats. Increasingly, party affiliation is not a reflection of politically salient views but rather of identity (who a person is, does, or believes in vis-a-vis society and the country). In other words, Americans are building their identity through and around their membership in respective parties — thus creating “shared memories, and cultural elements” that link them together as ethnic groups. This construct of ethnicity through political parties is important in order to evaluate how close or far America is to a civil war.

Causes of Civil War

As a result of the Yugoslavian civil war, the academic and policy communities’ interest in ethnic wars rose. As part of this research wave, Kaufman, a scholar, developed and demonstrated three necessary conditions (but by themselves not sufficient) for ethnic conflict. Kaufman found that “mass hostility, outbidding by belligerent elites, and a security dilemma were the main causes of ethnic war.” [2]

Mass Hostility

Mass hostility is perhaps the most important of the three causes. It often but not always precedes the other two and can serve as a big blinking red light. This is because civil wars differ from other forms of political violence including terrorism in its requirement to mobilize peoples at a massive scale. In fact, most ethnonationalist groups that engage in some forms of political violence are not interested in or find it difficult to mobilize at scale whether that struggle is against the State or another ethnic group. For example, the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA)[3], an ethnonationalist terrorist group in Spain which enjoyed a strong homogeneous ethnic group, chose to sustain — through almost all its lifespan — a smaller more targeted clandestine terrorist campaign.

Mass hostility between ethnic groups is rarely created in a vacuum. Kaufman found that ethnically defined grievances, negative stereotypes, demographic threats, histories of ethnic domination, emotion-laden ethnic symbols, and reciprocal fear of group extinction [4] collectively facilitate the creation of mass hostility necessary to mass mobilize. It’s important to note that mass hostility is a result of the interplay of these six conditions and one by itself doesn’t lead to mass hostility.

Security Dilemma and Outbidding

The remaining two causes are security dilemma and outbidding by belligerent leaders (a tick for tack fight that pushes leaders to more and more extreme positions). These are best understood in the context of mass hostility. While Posen, a scholar,[5] pioneered the concept of the security dilemma as a cause of ethnic civil wars, Kaufman elaborated it and posited that it is only activated when there is a “de facto state of anarchy.”[6] This means that the State has lost its ability to protect and/or keep at bay belligerent ethnic groups. This in turn exacerbates the urgency for each group to arm itself and continuously escalate each other’s actions (arming and storing weaponry and mobilizing military members) in a classic perceived security dilemma.

The last cause, outbidding by belligerent leaders, is both a cause and effect of mass hostility. Often the conditions necessary for mass hostility are construed by leaders who fight to outbid moderates in their group and rival groups. This exacerbates the ethnic grievances, the negative stereotypes, demographic threats, and other ethnically defined tropes necessary to create that mass hostility. On the flip side, once groups are activated in mass hostility only more exponentially extreme rhetoric and policies by their leaders are acceptable — — pushing groups further into their corners.

On the Brink of Civil War?

Against this backdrop, America is not spiralling into civil war as fast as some may suggest but there are troubling signs.

First, Democrats and Republicans are flirting but have not yet fully embraced enough preconditions needed to create mass hostility. For example, Americans more than before view the urban vs rural divide through an ethnic lens. The poor uneducated whites distrusting government institutions in rural areas (Republicans) versus the “diverse” educated elites in cities (Democrats). This also feeds into the negative stereotype mechanism. In 2019 more than in 2016, the shares of both Republicans and Democrats that ascribed some negative traits (unintelligent, close-minded, immoral, lazy etc.) to the other side increased. [7] It is also apparent in the anti-vaccine movement, the most likely group to refuse the Covid-19 vaccine are Republicans who consume far-right television news. [8]

There is also evidence that both sides are rallying around and reacting to actions against their respective emotional-laden ethnic symbols. For example, in 2020, 168 confederate symbols were removed across the United States. [9] During 6 January, both the terrorists that stormed the Capitol and the broader number of protesters present wore confederate-laden symbols including flags and shirts. On the flip side, on 10 September, the “Black National anthem” made its debut at an NFL game.[10] A policy the NFL established after severe pressure from Democrats and left-leaning advocacy groups.

Likewise, two other preconditions are also being met. America is becoming more ethnically diverse which represents a demographic threat to the traditional white majority (mostly Republican). By 2060, one in three Americans — 32 percent of the population — is projected to be a race other than White. [11] This also triggers nostalgia of “better times’ ‘ or the ethnic domination precondition — when America was perceived to be a homogenous country with one dominant and clear ethnic identity based on Christian-Judeo, conservative values.

Even though some preconditions to mass hostility are in play, it has yet to be achieved. This might change, however, if outbidding by belligerent leaders continues to escalate ethnically driven grievances. While the outbidding has stayed mostly in political channels (as opposed to ethnically driven) there are increasing signs of more extreme policy positions. For example, On 11 October, Representative Marjorie Taylor Green polled her followers on Twitter “Should America have a national divorce?” [12] Several far-right leaders in and out of Congress actively fanned the rhetorical flames that facilitated the 6 January protest and terrorist attack. [13] Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders have progressively called and successfully pushed the Democratic party further to the left — as evidenced in the recent “Build Back Better” legislation negotiations. [14]

Importantly, leaders from each side use “friendly” traditional media and social media to drive their rhetoric and push each other further to extremes: Republicans on Fox News and Democrats on MSNBC. As Kaufman explained “with the propaganda resources of modern political organizations and mass media, leaders can amplify weakly held stereotypes and redefine unremarkable demographic trends as mortal threats to group survival.” [15]

Extremes exist in all democracies, but they become dangerous when the outbidding and rhetoric is used to construe an ethnic identity of respective groups which can then activate the necessary preconditions to mass hostility.

Ethnic Civil War No, Terrorism Yes

While mass hostility and outbidding by leaders are occurring at different scales, America is not in a de facto state of anarchy and by extension ethnic groups do not currently have the political space and military means to mobilize in mass. America’s government retains authority and can provide the security to quell conflict.

While ethnic civil war is unlikely to occur, future political violence including terrorism is. In Schmid’s spectrum of political violence terrorism precedes ethnic civil war. [16] This is because terrorism require less resources, less mobilization, and importantly the mechanisms that drive political groups towards terrorism are maturing. This helps explain why in 2020 America saw “ground breaking levels of left and right leaning terrorism.” [17]

Tread Carefully

America must tread carefully. The possibility of an ethnic war between Republicans and Democrats seems unlikely but so did the Yugoslavian war that left over 101,000 dead and displaced millions more. But Bill Maher’s suggestion to stop hating each other may come up short. The best antidote to hate is love.

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[1] Smith, “The Ethnic Sources of Nationalism,” in Ethnic Conflict and International Security, ed. Michael E. Brown [Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993], 28–29)

[2] See Kaufman in Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses, and Moscow in Moldova’s Civil War Author(s): Stuart J. Kaufman. Source: International Security, Fall, 1996, Vol. 21, №2 (Fall, 1996), pp. 108–138

[3] The ETA terrorized Spain for almost 55 years. ETA is sometimes wrongfully called an insurgency. While they wanted a separate state, they were an ethnonationalist terrorist group whom for most of their lifetime they operated clandestinely and in the underground.

[4] See Kaufman in Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses, and Moscow in Moldova’s Civil War Author(s): Stuart J. Kaufman. Source: International Security , Fall, 1996, Vol. 21, №2 (Fall, 1996), pp. 108–138

[5] See Barry R Posen in Chapter 5 Ethnic Conflict and the Security Dilemma in Ethnic Conflict and International Security, ed. Michael E. Brown [Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993];

[6] See Kaufman in Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses, and Moscow in Moldova’s Civil War Author(s): Stuart J. Kaufman. Source: International Security , Fall, 1996, Vol. 21, №2 (Fall, 1996), pp. 108–138

[7] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/10/10/how-partisans-view-each-other/

[8] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/07/28/here-are-the-republicans-most-likely-to-refuse-the-covid-19-vaccine-poll-finds/?sh=6efbd5ea735f

[9] https://www.npr.org/2021/02/23/970610428/nearly-100-confederate-monuments-removed-in-2020-report-says-more-than-700-remai

[10] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58482970

[11] https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf

[12] https://www.huffpost.com/entry/marjorie-taylor-greene-national-divorce-tweet_n_61652a83e4b0c1ab4bb7ed06

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/politics/republicans-capitol-riot.html

[14] https://www.npr.org/2021/10/02/1042667331/democrats-cant-agree-on-bidens-build-back-better-bill

[15] See Kaufman in Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses, and Moscow in Moldova’s Civil War Author(s): Stuart J. Kaufman. Source: International Security , Fall, 1996, Vol. 21, №2 (Fall, 1996), pp. 108–138

[16] Alex P. Schmid. Political Terrorism (Amsterdam, North-Holland 1988) pp. 5859

[17]https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2021/domestic-terrorism-data/