Iran: Nukes Ahoy!

David Albright former UN Weapons Inspector has warned Joe Biden not to attack Iran directly! Biden as I write this has probably chosen what way he wants to hit back. Hit back for an attack by a group called Kataib Hezbollah. The group is allegedly funded by Iran.

A so-called 'kamikaze drone' hit a US base in or near Jordan, killing three US troops and injuring many others. The US has suffered 150 attacks by Iran-backed groups where US service personnel have been injured. As the US retaliates (and it must!) David Albright has advised the President to attack the group sending a clear warning to Iran. The ex-UN Weapons Inspector said attacking Iran directly would push it into a corner, which would mean Iran directly developing one or more nukes. In the past, Mr. Albright has said Iran is months away from developing some nuclear weapons.

Similar to the regime of Kim Jong-un who does have a nuclear capability. North Korea knows it severely lags in conventional weapons capability compared to South Korea or the US. Therefore, North Korea has developed nukes with the capability to deliver them. So, Iran may be or has been or will be thinking along the same lines.

President Biden has been weighing his options after the drone attack. Some have suggested that American retaliation could last a week. It would mean hitting Iran-backed groups hard in Iraq and Syria. It has also been suggested that the US could cyber attacks on these groups. If Biden hits back, he must know it risks retaliation from Iran. But what other option does he have? Biden is being hounded by far-right Republicans and some in the Democratic Party. Many Americans will expect him to avenge the deaths and injuries of US service personnel. However, some in the American populace want out of the Middle East altogether. They have seen the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have led to nothing but defeat and humiliation, particularly in the war against the Taliban. Also, with Biden's backing of Israel and its war on Hamas Biden's ratings in the polls have nose dived. Many of Biden's former supporters are even contemplating voting for Trump!

As I have mentioned in other articles ad nauseum, the war has already spread. Israel has killed 27,000 Gazans and very few Hamas militants. Israel has obliterated Gazan health care, education facilities, churches and mosques, and UN places to smithereens. And for what exactly? Will it bring back the 1,200 or so dead Israelis? Will it bring back the 100 or so hostages still being held in Gaza? The answer to that is a definite n0. Hamas still stands along with other Palestinian groups. Israel has 224 servicemen and women dead, even senior officers. It would appear Israel has got bogged down in a messy, brutal, campaign, with no end. Plans are afoot or so we are told, to bring about a ceasefire, to release Palestinian prisoners and what remains of the Israeli hostages. It must, however, be a lasting ceasefire, with an arrangement so both Israelis and Palestinians can feel safe.

Beyond this you have Hezbollah and Israel hitting each other. The Houthis are unrelenting in their attacks on Red Sea shipping, despite US and UK bombing raids. So the whole situation is volatile to start with and gets worse by the day. Added to that but perhaps unrelated you still have the Ukraine-Russia War, so 2024 looks set to be another year of danger.

Meanwhile, in the US, you have two old has-beens Biden and Trump. Whoever gets elected it looks like they will continue the same old Middle East policy. You have a Nazi-style government in Israel with Netanyahu prolonging the war to save his political arse (even though he knows he is falling short of the objectives he sought in the war). Hamas will grow stronger out of this because if they are still standing after this conflict, many will see them as heroes. Wishy-Washy Rishi will certainly be defeated in any general election and his successor Sir Keir Starmer will pursue the same Middle East policy he did. Other Western governments will be the same with their Middle East policy. So, all I can say is, welcome to 2024, strap in folks, it's going to get bumpier!

Iran